AFTER THE WAR.

Taranaki Daily News, 7 December 1918, Page 6

AFTER THE WAR.

PROBLEMS TO BE FACED. BRIGHT OUTLOOK FOR DOMINION. By Wire.—Press Assn. Wellington, La, s t night. Mr H. Bcauchamp (chairman) said at tlie Bank of Xe.v Zealand, half-yearly meeting to-day:—

Following the close of the war conies the diflicult task of arranging the terms of peace. In this connection it is gratifying to noio that the representatives of the Doin ! *.i,>ns wil have seats at the Peace Confer nee. One of the outstanding qucstf? i for Australasia is of course the dtsfiny of the German Colonies in thif Pacific. These cannot, and must not, be returned to Germany to become in the future bases for submarines and aircraft, and therefore a menace to the peaceful development of the British Dominions in these seas. There are of course other matters of great moment in which we are interested, that are bound to be discussed at the Peace Conference; bat the determination of the disposal of the Gorman Colonies in the Pacific is, to us, a very important question. Australian and New Zealand statesmen are, happily, unanimous on this point. The active work of repatriation, restoration, and reconstruction must now bo undertaken, and the greatest intelligence and the greatest, organising ability will have to be utilised for this purpose, for at every step complicated and serious problems are bound to present themselves for solution. It seems to me that the transition period will be no less trying and anxious than the war period has been; and the best efforts of every individual in the community will be needed to maintain the economic machinery in smoothly-run-ning order.

NO VARIATION IN OUR PROSPERITY. I do not anticipate any immediate variation in the prosperity that this Dominion has enjoyed during the four years of war. There will probably be for some time a. pressing demand for our foodstuffs and raw materials. It is practically assured that the Imperial authorities will take the output of wool for a period of twelve months from June following the declaration of peace; and arrangements have now been concluded with them to take our output of cheese and butter for this and the following Gea3on, at satisfactory prices. Thia places the wool and dairying industries upon an assured footing for a considerable period. As to meat, however, which bulks bo largely in our exports, the present term of the commandeer is for only throe months after termination .of the war. If this be not altered, it is conceivable that in March or April transportation and realisation of the meat in store would probably occupy not less than eighteen months. It is, I consider, highly beneficial to New Zealand that these forward contracts have been made with the Imperial Government in regard to wool and dairy produce; and in my opinion it would be to the advantage of tie Dominion if the principle were also extended to meat. The war prosperity of the Dominion has been largely due to the operations in produce by the Imperial Government; and until, at any rate, normal business conditions prevail and the shipping position improves considerably, the advantages of a continuance of these operations are to my mind obvious.

IN THE OOLD-STORES. There is now in cold-store of frozen meat alone a quantity equal to about 4J million COlb freiglit carcases; there aro also considerable quantities of cheese and butter and> a large amount of wool. In addition, there are heavy stocks of tallow, pelts, hemp, and other products, which have not been commandeered by the Imperial Government. The present season, for reasons I havo already given, is a backward one, so that not much of the current year's yield has yet got into store. It must be borne in mind that all the Imperially-requisitioned produce will have to be lifted in priority to purchase on privato account; and as the British commandeer of shipping will probably not be relaxed for some considerable time, it is clear that privato purchasers would in that case have to : take heavy risks. It is easy to understand that if the bulk of next season's meat has to be held in the refrigerated stores pending a market being found for it, a difficult, and in some eases, unsatisfactory, situation would arise.

SCARCITY OF TONNAGE. Tho scarcity 'of tonnage is likely to continue —indeed is certain to continue —for several months, notwithstanding the fact that a fair amount of shipping will ha released through there being no longer any necessity to transport munitions and men. It may not be out of place to remind fanners and others who have accused the shipowners of exploiting the public, and so profiteering, that all ships on the British Register were requisitioned during the early part of 1017 at Blue Book Tatcs, these rates being approximately onethird of those then obtainable in the open market. The difference between tho Blue Book rates and those now current benefits, not the shipowners, but the Imperial Government. So long as the British authorities continue thfiv control of shipping, so long will it b.? difficult to know just what number of vessels will bo available for our produce trade.

It is moreover of the utmost importance to us that the income from the sale of produce should be as large during the next two years as it is this year, to enable us to meet our obligations in the meantime whilst we arc making provision for the readjustment of our afTairs to meet the changed conditions. Had we been able to foretell a year ago just exactly when the war would end, we could have made some preparation to meet the situation; but the end lias come suddenly, and the post-war problems have yet to be grappled with.

OUR PUBLIC DEBT. One great burden that the war has forced upon us is a huge public debt. The Minister of Finance lias repeatedly stated, since his return from England, that the public debt is about £200,000,000 This at 41 per cent means an interest bill of £9,000,000 per annum, or say £750,000 a month; and there will be, in addition, the heavy pension bill to meet. These two items will absorb about eleven millions to twelve millions a year. This is, however, one feature about the debt that rebounds to iMfkiiliibiiSfifi

portion of the money required-for tliti prosecution of the war was obtained within New Zealand. Jt was recently fitted officially that the amount of the war loans raised in the Dominion was equal to about £4O per bead, of the population, a truly magnificat* achievement.

BRITAIN'S LIABILITIES. A Veil as the people of New Zealand' have done, the people in the British Isles 'have done infinitely better. ' The Chancellor of the Itxehequer the other day obtained a credit v<rte of £700,0(10,000, which does not represent the .end of such votes. With this vote the total is brought up to the hum. sum of £8,742,000,000, Eiade up as under-:

| 914 " 15 ' 362,000.000 191(i-16 r.... ... 1,420,000^000 1910-17 r ..,. .... 2,0:10,000,000 1&17-18 2,450,000,000 191849 2,500,000,000 '£5,742,000,000 The debt duo to Great Britain from the Allies on August lot was £1,402,000,000, and from the Dominions £208,500,000; and both amounts would be considerably larger now. It was officially stated in the House of Commons that the .National War Debt on September 30th last amounted to £C - 875,000,000; and there is the recent credit vote to foe added, which would bring the total to £7,575,000,000. It will probably take another £500,000,000 to repatriate the troops ana for restoration, compensation, etc., which would make the National War Debt abbut £8,000,000,000. Of, the amount due to Britain from tho Allies and Dominions, £1,000,000,000 is regarded as good, and this would leave the debt at £7,000,000,000. The interest bill would probably total £315*000,000, which, with the amount required for the n » mal peace expenditure, would mean raising a revenue of £600,000,000—0r three times the amount raised in the peace year of 1913-14, The people in Britain will be unable to indulge in any extravagances and will be unable to afford any fancy prices for foodstuffs or for anything else. And this state of affairs is likely to continue for some time.

But there will, I anticipate, be no sharp or sudden decline in the prices of our produce or, on the other hand, of the commodities we import. As regards imports, there is more likely to be an upward rather than a downward tendency, for a time at least, in the cost of commodities that are imported into this country. There is a world-wide shortage of standard goods and of raw materials, and these cannot be produced in sufficient quantities to meet all demands for a very long time, so that values, when they do recede, will do so gradually. Furthermore, so far as New Zealand is concerned, there will be a considerable difficulty in importing goods from Britain because a large proportion, if not the whole, of cur steamers will be needed for the repatriation of troops.

NO OCCASION FOR ALARM. Merchants and importers are seriously urged to study the position carefully, and they will realise that there is no reason whatever for antliing in the shape of a panic. The situation is an unfortunate one for the general public, for it means that the cost of living wi)l continue high, though perhaps not quite so high as at present. High rates of freight- as compared with pre-war days, increase in prime cost, and difficulty in procuring, will still operate in respect of imported goods and help to maintain values; while the prices of the foodstuffa Wjjiich wo ourselves produce aro unlikely to fall for some time owing to the strong demand there will be for them to feed the starving millions of Europe. Tho same set of conditions will operate in Australia, Canada, South Africa, and India, so that the people of New Zealand will have no monopoly of complaining about the high cost of living. As a matter of act the cost of living is relatively as low as, if not lower than, in the Commonwealth, and certainly lower than in European countries.

ENEMY SHOULD PAY. In view of all these circumstances, it is to be hoped that the imperative necessity of making the offending nations bear a substantial portion, if not the whole, of the war costs entailed upon . the Allies iu defeating their nefarious designs will be strenuously insisted upon at the Peace Conference. There should be no false and foolish sentimentalism or nambypambyism when settling scores with the frerman nation. Recent disclosures prove beyond all possible doubt that Germany was the real instigator of the war, and had made complete plans towards that end some time before the actual declaration of hostilities. It is therefore to be sincerely hoped that the abject appeals which the Hun is at present making to secure miligation of the just punishment that is impending for his misdeeds will fall .upon deaf ears and that the Allies will foe inexorable in their terms.

IF THE HUN HAD WON. What, I ask, would have. been the fate of the British 'Empire if the Hun, instead of being defeated, had been victorious? Let me quote an extract from the letter of a leading (JermaiWtho late ■ Herr Ballin—which was telegraphed out to the press quite recently. He wrote a few days before his- death; discussing the forecasts of the armistice' terms, which he. , admitted were ußevpectcdly moderate, and remained:— "If wo had been the victors we would have demanded the occupa- ' tion" of- London, and Paris, dictated ■terms* at Buckingham Palace, and the en tiro' continent vbe,tween the Urals and the Bay'of | Biscay." 1 Le|, me also remind you of the iniquitouf exactions., to which poor Belgium haf been subjected in order to provide for l- the maintenance of an ijrmy of occupation, -which by all the laws of right and justice should never have been in Belgian territory at all. Unquestionably upon the British Dominions grievous burdens would have been laid. In these circumstances, therefore, there need be no hesitation on our part in demanding what is obviously only fair and just to ourselves and our Allies.

GERMANY'S NATURAL RICHES. Muck will be made of the fact that Germany is financially iu a bankrupt state and unable at present to pay indemnities. That may 'be true; but if so, it is Germany's concern. She lias brought it upon herself and can therefore be left to .find a way out or ler own embarrassments. But Germany is not bankrupt in resources. She is rich in natural wealth, and my firm opinion is that that natural wealth should be charged with the Iburden of tfat flabt which the chiUaed £gwdeiu-

loving nations .of the world have hod to incur to protect their liberties against German aggression,

It should he arranged that specific taxes should he levied upon all Germany's primary products to provide for pnymont, within a reasonable period, of flic AHied indebtedness together with the interest thereon.

. In this- way, the magnitude of her iniquity and the inevitable conse•quenccs of crimes sufch as those of •which Germany has been guilty, would:, bo kept alive in the German mind for .probably the next century, and would furnish one of the host guarantees against,any reversion to militarism by the German nation. By the time her obligation had been discharged, the triumph of democracy would be complete. J 1,, opinion is that the British Itomii: ;.i)?., at any rate,, should •unequivocally demand to be'ilindemniliod against the liability which German greed and rapacity have forced upon them. If the wealthiest members of the Allied family desiro to display generosity to the German nation, they can of course ;make any sacrifice they wish on their own account; but as far as the Dominions are concerned, full indemnification should be afforded.

OTHER CONSIDERATIONS. The financial aspect is, moreover, not the only one that call 3 for consideration. Here, at this trysting-place of the ages, stand outraged Justice and afflicted Humanity, appealing to the champions of Eight—Justice demanding vindication of her honor* and Humanity crying out for redress of her grievances. The victors cannot turn a deaf ear to their appeal. Those responsible for the perpetration of the countless inhumanities, barbarisms and iniquities that have ; j this war a horror of horrors, should be arraigned at the bar of an international judicial tribunal and receive from that august Court the just punishment of their offences. The exalted station .of a culprit should have 110 influence upon the decrees of such Court. The braggart and blaspheming "All Highest," if shown to be responsible, should receive the same treatment as the lowest common soldier.

Thus we shall perfect the work which our gallant dead have had to leave unfinished, and fill up the measure of their sacrifices, so that the splendour of their completed achievement shall go down witli undimined lustre to a grateful posterity, and shine for ever with an imperishable glory.