THE POLITICAL SITUATION.

Taranaki Daily News, Volume LIV, Issue 320, 9 July 1912, Page 5

THE POLITICAL SITUATION.

THE NEW OPPOSITION. (By Telegraph—Parliamentary Keporter.) Wellington, Last Night. When the House meets to-morrow afternoon Mr. Mackenzie will say what has happened. Mr. Massey will then assume the position of Prime Minister, and ask for an adjournment, probably till Thursday, to give him an opportunity to select his Cabinet. When he again meets the House he will ask for a further adjournment till the end of the month, by which time be will be in a position to bring down the Financial Statement, and with it his policy.

MK. MASSEY'S POSITION. Meanwhile members on both sides of the house are busily engaged in discussing the possibilities of the future. Some idea has already been given of the new .Ministry. "Mr." Massey," declared an experienced member of the former Opposition to-day, ''lias his hands full of trouble. He is only just beginning to realise what political responsibility means. You consider what he has to do. The party J has for years stood by him loyally.' There is scarcely a member who cannot lay claim to full consideration, and at the very least all can urge that the greatest care should be taken in the formation of the Ministry. On the crucial division Mr. Massey had a majority of eight that will not feel concerned about supporting him. Mr. Ngata, it is considered, will be in opposition to the new Government. Among the remainder of Mr. Massey's majority are Messrs. Reed, Coatcs and T. W. Rhodes, whose ostensible purpose in going over to the Opposition was that they might preserve their election pledges in regard to the freehold. Now consider what a position Mr. Massey will be in in trying to retain sufficient support to enable him to legislate to any effect. He will have to retain the support, if possible, of the whole of his original thirty-eight followers. While they were in opposition they were a solid phalanx. Now they are in'powor there is always the possibility of sectional differences arising, particularly on the land question. Apart altogether from .Ministerial positions these may be adjusted, but as a follower of Mr. Massey for many years I can see that he has a hard row to hoe." THE NEW OPPOSITION..

Next in consideration to the position of the new Government comes the question of what the new Opposition will do. The question of leadership, it may be definitely stated, will not be decided for some time, and the Liberal Party, as was apparent from what took place duriHg the closing scenes on Friday night, has been reduced to its present position by reason of internal differences, the results of which may have a lasting effect. All sorts of speculations have been indulged in as to what will happen to the party which has been in possession of the Treasury benches for twenty-one years. Who will be the leader? On the face of things, Mr. Mackenzie will be the leader, but it is well know that there are other aspirants to the position. Mr. Wilford has been mentioned, but he will probably await another opportunity. Mr. G. W. Russell is also mentioned as one who desires to bring himself into prominence in that connection. The possibility of Sir Joseph Ward again taking up the leadership of the party is not regarded serially. Sir Joseph Ward went out of office because of internal differences. Many of those internal differences still exist. Even in the hour of its defeat the Liberal Party lacks cohesion, and it is difficult to select a leader who will be able to command a unanimous and solid following. It may be that the necessary solidity will come from the mere fact of being in opposi-' tion. There is, on the other hand, a very general feeling that ex-Ministers will combine for one definite purpose—full and stringent criticism of any legislation or other proposals that may be put forward by the new Government. During the three months that the Mackenzie Government was in office, each member ostensibly did his best to acquire a knowledge of the different departments under his control, and their possibility of criticism has thereby been increased to a very considerable extent. In addition, there is Sir Joseph Ward, who, as a Minister and Prime Minister, has been i closely and intimately identified with the fortunes of the Government since Mr. Ballance came into power at the end of 1890. It is certain that events will ba very lively. In fact, some of the more hopeful section of the Liberal Party are Jof the opinion that a dissolution will take place before many months. On the other hand there is a strong body of opinion that Mr. Masscy will see the Parliament out, and remain in power until 1914. There is no gainsaying the fast that the Opposition (or, more properly speaking, the Government that is to be) is extremely confident. In all probability the new Cabinet will be announced on Wednesday morning.

MR, MASSEY'S PROSPECTS. A DISPASSIONATE REAIEAV. POLITICAL CHANGE. A\ 7 ellington, Last Night. Full realisation of the change that lias taken place in the political world during the past few weeks will only come with time. Naturally it is difficult for the average onlooker from outside to realise that the huge forces employed by Mr. Seddon and 'later by Sir. Joseph Ward for good, bad, and indifferent papers have, for the time being, gone the way of all political flesh. Liberalism is not dead, any more than Massey or Ward is dead, but the old order hiaa changed, and the new is taking its place. The curious feature about the whole political change is, paradoxically, that the change is so slight. The new party spelt reform with capital letters, but taken item by item there is not much difference between the Massey Ministry that is coming in and the Mackenzie Ministry that is going out, with, however, ths difference Mr. Mackenzie had associated with him men like Myers and MacDonald, who would have done credit to any Ministry, and whose departure may reasonably be regretted. Messrs. Laurenson, Russell, Hanan, and Ell are on a different plane. They represent the advanced phalanx of the Liberals, more nearly associated with Labor than with Mackenzie, and who, therefore, have had to bear the brunt of extreme opposition, not only from the legitimate Opposition, but from many in the ranks of their own party. Now Mr. Massey is engaged in the arduous, and possibly unpleasant, task'of forming 1 a Cabinet, and it is nuite likely that before the process is fully achieved he will have encountered some of the difficulties- that his predecessors had to fnce. There mav even be a Hanan and an Ell among those who are demanding Ministerial recognition. Tt is, at least, easily conceivable, that not every member of the new Cabinet will be fully acceptable to the rank and file, and although they may be generally acknowledged as the best that could be secured under the circumstances, there is always the chance that unless they walk warily they will fall foul of some susceptibilities. ' Apart, however, from I the difficulties of Cabinet-making, it has to be remembered that the new dominant partv, with only a slender majority, has not the slightest experience behind

it in regard to administration or legiala- '■ tion, while on the other hand, it will fac» an Opposition fresh from over: twenty years of poweT, replete.with mental information and armed all points for criticism of the most damaging character. That happened 'when Mr. Ballance took over the reins of office from Sir Harry Atkinson in 1890, but Mr. Ballance came on to the political quarter-deck with a well-defined eouri* laid down. He was out for the political scalps of the big men, who, he contended, had run the country in their own interests, and against the interests of the general body of the public. The political battle had been fought on welldefined lines, and only the first ranks of the defeated army had been left to do battle. The writer recalls the strenuous fight the remnants of the Atkinson amy put up in those days. The Hon.' John Bryce, Mr. W. C. Buchanan, Mr; John Duthie, the Hon. T. Fergus, Mr.., H. S. PisJi, Mr. George Fisher. Sir John Hall, Mr. George Hutchison, Mr. D.. IT. MaeArthur, Mr. Scobie Mackenzie, Mr. James Mills, the Hon. E. Mitchelson, Dr. Newman, the Hon. G. Richardr son, the Hon. W. Rolleston and Captain, Russell failed to stem the tide, despite the most strenuous efforts. Some Government supporters are thinking that, the new Opposition will carry as much weight as the Opposition of the early nineties. It will do nothing of the - sort. The Opposition of those days was defeated because of a wave of popular opinion, which swept over the country, but left the outgoing party a solid body. The Mackenzie Government has gone out ! because of a general feeling that it 'had outlived, its usefulness, but there/ is the point that it has left the Opposition ' that is to be a disintegrated medley of conflicting political atoms, compelled to' acknowledge defeat, and every other' man blaming his neighbor for the result. The only man who has the slightest possibility of welding the party to--' gether into a cohesive party is Sir J. G. Ward, and he is obviously' sick of the , whole thing. Rome day he may-' re-.' appear, hut the ranks of the party are so honeycombed with disaffection" and petty bickerings regarding paltry details that no one capable of handling the ribbons is to be found with sufficient temerity to mount the box. That" is where Mr. Massey will score. If he can only keep his opponent? at their present game of sixes and sevens he will possible manage to steer safely through the political maelstrom to the end of the ordinary Parliamentary tfin. What he has to fear is cohesion in the rank's of his opponents. Sharpshooting hp will have to endure. Probahlr he is fully prepared for it. and has mi.de his plans accordingly, but the outlook at present is that his opponents are out of line, that none of them are anxious for a dissolution, and that he can rely generally on being given a chance to score. The mere fact that after twentv-one years in the cold shades of Opposition he has reached the warmer latitudes of the Government benches is a tribute to his pluck and powers of endurance, and at the same time a reflection on the party which he will henceforth regard as his Majesty's Opposition. But the end is not yet. Political rest is not generally achieved by a majority partially composed of political recruits, except the recruiting has been the result of absolutely divergent lines of policy, and Mr. Massey will probably find, ere long, that, like the young bear, all his troubles are before him.