Statistical Survey

Sun (Auckland), Volume III, Issue 716, 16 July 1929, Page 6

Statistical Survey

Motor Trade in New Zealand

SOME highly interesting statistical information in regard to registration, sales and distribution of motor vehicles in New Zealand has been compiled by the Market Research Bureau of The Charles Haines Advertising Agency, Ltd.

Issued as a guide to motor-vehicle manufacturers and distributors, the brochure points out that at February 28, 1929, there were 131,463 motorcars registered iu New Zealand, giving one car to 11 people, the same ratio as in Canada. In the United States the ratio is one car to five people, and even this ratio is approximated in Taranaki (one ear to 5.53 people) which, with Hawke’s Bay (one car to 6.12 people) definitely outpaces the four metropolitan provinces in proportionate car ownership. Interesting comparative figures indicate the competition of the many makes of car, their prices, their comparative sales in relation to population, and their relative distribution, indicating the most popular makes in the various districts. It is estimated that 85 per cent, of all car sales at the present time are for closed models, with four doors, five-passenger models predominating. The compilers of the publication state:— “Although the existing ratio of ownership to population in New Zealand is one in 11, it has to be borne in mind that, on account of retail prices being practically double those operative in countries of manufacture, the per capita investment in cars in New Zealand would rank a close second in a world analysis. “In view of the undoubted period of prosperity that lies ahead of New Zealand, it is confidently anticipated that, with a continuance of the present publicity and selling effort, sales during the next five years should reach 20,000 cars per annum. “Allowing for an Increase In population in proportion to that experienced during the past five years, the population of New Zealand In the year 1934 should be 1,610,000. With the existing per capita automobile ownership of one in 11, this means that there will be 146,363 cars in New Zealand, an increase of 15,000 cars. Spread over five years—i.e., provided that the

ratio of ownership to population remains only stationary, the normal population growth alone allows for extra sales of 3,000 cars a year. An anticipation of a ratio of one car to every seven people is, however, only in line With normal growth, and on this basis the New Zealand market should during the next five years absorb 99,000 new oars, nearly 20,000 a year. At this date, to reach immediately a ratio of one car to nine people, the market would require to absorb 30,000 cars.” VERY SEASONAL Car-selling has its distinct seasons, and a graph of the year’s sales is remarkable for its rise and fall in different months. The graph for 1928, as given in this publication, shows an autumn-winter depression, and a distinct peak covering spring and December. For instance, July sales were a little over 900 cars, but they proceeded to rise sharply and consistently month by month, culminating in a December sale of over 2,700. Christmas and New Year holidays being over, the sales at once drop back—the January total is about 1,100. The rise-to-peak is thus fn the last six months of the year. The first six months would probably be flat and low, but the advent of Easter and of registration-period seems to cause a sub-peak in April (1,250 cars) and May (1,100). There is not space to deal at the same length with the analysis of the trade in commercial vehicles and motor-cycles, though these are of equal Interest and in some respects of greater importance. The same remark applies to the proportion of the publication devoted to tyres, motor spirits and road finance. The following sentence Is worth noting: “In XJ.S.A. over three million families have two cars, and although there are undoubtedly prospects in this direction in New Zealand, no cognisance has been taken of them in estimating the Dominion’s future oar requirements.”