WELLINGTON NOTES.

King Country Chronicle, Volume VII, Issue 594, 16 August 1913, Page 5

WELLINGTON NOTES.

From Our Correspondent,

Wellington, August 14th

Will Sir Joseph Ward accept the leadership of the Opposition? That is the question of the day and moment. Sir Joseph was certainly prepared to do so before he left for England, provided the Liberal 3 in the House agreed to sink their differences at:d to present a unite:! front to the Massey Government. But rumour —many tongued—has it that Sir Joseph is by no means j satisfied, with the position of affairs, j nor the attitude of the party itself. ' The greater number of members sup- | porting the Opposition Would, of ! course, hail with delight Sir Joseph j Ward's return to the leadership. Cev- ; 'ain recalcitrant Liberals, who are i reported to be unwilling to again ac- | cept his leadership, have, however, : to be reckoned with. Included in the i ' number are at least two if not three, j | South Island members, and then there j ; are the five Labour representatives to j be reckoned with. On a test division, the votes of four out of the five ol the j latter would be almost certainly cast ! against the present Government. But i could Sir Joseph depend upon their j votes when he had turned the Go- j vernment out, assuming tha the is in / a position to do so, which is more j than doubt f ul. The tail of the party ; —the Labour section —contains the ' sting. It constitutes (he real danger j with which present-day Liberalism j has to reckon. The Labour section is i dominated by the "Red Feds," and the "Red Feds" aspire to dominate the Liberals. Their support can only be secured by the adoption of their programme, i

; Certainly, Sir Joseph Ward is in no i hurry to disclose his hand. Neither at ■ any of the public receptions accorded hrni, nor in the House, or elsewhere he has he said anything to lead people to believe that he will accept the vacant leadership. But as it is recognised that without him the parly must continue to go down, strenuous efforts are being made by Opposition members tr. enlist the sympathy and support of more than one Independent member of the House, and of one cr two of the more radical supporters of the Massey Government. It is pointed out that the Government has actually only a very small majority. There were 38 members returned a3 supporters of Mr Massey and the Reicim Party. Mr Wilkinson's election for Egmonr, in the place of the Hon. Thomas Mackenzie, gave the p3rty a;i additional vote.. That made 39. Then there were the three liberal freeholders—Mr Gordon Coates, Mr T. W. Rhodes, and Mr V. H. Reed—who supported Mr Massey on his "no-confi-dence" motion against the Mackenzie Administration. These gentlemen brought the strength of the Government party up to 42, and, with the late Speakn- in the chair. 43 votes were accounted for. leaving only 37 that could possibly be recorded against the Administration. 'i'hs position is somewhat different now, for, with Sir Arthur Guinness gone, the Hop. F. W. Lang, a Reform Partv man ; in the chair, and Mr P. C. Webb filling the seat for the Grey, tha margin of votes in the Government favour is presumably reduced tcllu-ee; henco the anxiety with which attempts are being made to alienate the support of the Independents. But all the lobbying and wire pulling that is going on is not likely to affect a single Government vote, and, as already hinted, there are two or three men on the Opposition side of the House who will vote against Sir Joseph Ward on every occasion. Thus, although a no-confi-dence motion may be sprung upon the Hous« at anytime during the debate on the Financial Statement, there is very little, if any, prospect of the Government's position being successfully assailed.

Another factor which has to be reckoned with, in determining the votcb of members on a no-confidence motion, is the. possible dissolution of the House, and an appeal to the country, as the outcome of an adverse vote. If the House were -ent to the country tomorrow, many present members would inevitably lose their seais the member for Avon amongst then 1 . While it is by no means certain that the Reform party candidate would unseat Mr Russell, it is an open secret that the Prohibitionists will run a candidate against him; and, as the latter will stand in the Liberal intprest, the splitting of votes is more thsn likely to lead to Mr Russell's undoing, " This much has to be said, however, in Mr Russell's favour. Pef-

sonai considerations are not likely to affect his vote in a no confidence motion. But there are other members on the Opposition side whose seats are equally shaky: and, knowing the consequences, they are likely to think seriously before placing the Government in the position in which their only alternative would be an appeal to the country. And thus, aithough the Opposition is endeavouring to work up a political crisis, it is hardly likely, if it occurs, to be serious magnitude. The debate on the Financial Statement is nevertheless likely to be protracted, but it should leave the Government m--scathed.