ITALY AND THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2412, 18 March 1915, Page 6

ITALY AND THE WAR

GROWING NEUTRAL TENDENCY

SIGNOR GIOLITTI'S CALCULATIONS ("Morning Post" Correspondent.) Rome, February 4. During the last few days I have had occasion to hear the opinions of various Italian politicians who, being in favour of Italy's intervention on the side of tho Triple Entente against tho two Central Empires, might naturally be expected to regard that intervention as probable. On the contrary, they express the opinion, which has been growing as tinio has gone on, that, barring some -unforeseen incident, Italy will keep out of . the war. Her neutral attitude would be still further confirmed were Signor Giolitti to veturn to office, as seems not improbable. It is said, indeed, that the exPromier at the age of seventy-two is not personally over-anxious to resume tho responsibilities of ofiico, especially at this moment. This theory must, bowever, be received with caution, for Signor' Giolitti has no interests outside politics, and he wears his seventy-two years as lightly as a flower. Indeed, be is obviously in excellent health. Hut even were ho to pronounce his nolo episcopari—a rare thing for those who have so long'tasted the sweets of unlimited power as has the ex-dictator of Italy—still there are many among his followers who desire, for reasons of their own, the advent of his fifth Administration. It must be. remembered that the Salandra Cabinet is in the position of the Conservative Cabinet of 1885. in England, which inherited office without a majority. At any moment after the Chamber meets on the 18th the Giolittian majority, which consists of more than 300 out of a total of 508 deputies, oan overthrow the Salandra Government, especially as it would probably have the aid of the 51 "Official" Socialists, of the 24 Clericals, and of a very few of the 70 Radicals (such as Signor Sacchi, the ex-Minister and former colleague of Signor Giolitti). Premier and the King. Ono safeguard could, it is objected, save the Salandra Cabinot, viz., if tho King promised to the Premier (as some say that he has) the right of dissolving the Chamber. For fifteen years no one except Signor Giolitti has "made the elections," as tho Italians significantly say; alike in 1904, in 1909, and in 1913 (the dates of tho last three general elections), he was in office, as in 1892, as Premier and Minister of tho .tnterioi, and the inevitable result in each case was a large Giolittian majority. Indeed, since" 1848 no dissolution of an Italian Chamber has ever been to the Government in office at the time. Soma think, however, that the mere knowledge that Signor Salandra had the Royal degree for a dissolution in. hiß pocket would prevent the Giolittians from overturning his "armoured motor." This remains to be seen; aiiid it is obvious that a genoral election at this moment would have its disadvantages from various points of view. Should, however, Signor Giolitti be forced by what the late Signor Saracco once called "tho liable appetites" of his followers t-o resume office he will probably be more Germanophil than the. present Cabinet. Till the Libyan War lie, like his master, Doprctis, regarded foreign policy as a bore. Since then, however, lie has taken it up with interest ts a practical study. Absolutely devoid of sentiment, this able, cold, calculating, Piedmontese Parliamentarian, perhaps tho greatest master of Parliamentary legerdemain that Europe poses, would try, it may be surmised, to make for Italy the best bargain that he could without going into war. To judge by his previous associations, and by tho expressions of his followers, he may_ think that Germany can indues Austria to satisfy; Italian aspiratiois. Only Signor Giolitti is far too shrewd a person to place faith in "scraps of paper." Should he discover, as- in 1911, that the country wants war against Austria, he would doubtless, as in 1911, make war himself, and obtain laurels from the Trentino, as ho obtained them—malgre lui—from Libya. But of a popular uprising in favour of was there is no sign. Let the British, therefore, cherish no illusions that Italy as a whole will rush into war from sentiment because a certain number of Garibaldians have fought heroically for the Allies. Italy will certainly not join Germany and Austria; but, unless some incident occurs to cause war, she seems daily less likely to' attack them, especially as she cannot have a war in a watertight compartment against Austria alone. Cermans and Provincial Press. One reason of the increased feeling for neutrality in the country districts 1 is, as various persons inform me, the successful efforts of the Germans to influence the small, but in tho aggregate influential, country newspapers. While all their unscrupulous attempts to convert great national newspapers have failed, as was only to have been expected from tho high character of the journals in question and their patriotic independence, they have been, it is said by Italians,"'more fortunate with the smaller fry 'in 6ome provinces. There they are aided, too, oy the Clericals, hostile, despite the Pope's declaration of neutrality, to France and Russia, and devoted to Austria and her ally.