UNKNOWN FACTOR

Chronicle (Levin), 14 November 1946, Page 4

UNKNOWN FACTOR

Those Who Will Not Vote ifof.ooo Ri 1943 Election Possibly the biggest unknown factor iir the' coming election. is the intention of 170,000 eleetors wlio did not vote in. 1913. The poll in that year was, qn a percentage basis, the smaiiest since 1919 aird at least another 100,000 votes could have been expected*. No one knows why those 100,000 eleetors did not vote in 1913, whether they will vote on Noventbet 27, and, if they vote, which party they will vote for. Their number is probably suffieient to decide Which party will be the Government. In 1943 tlie total number of eivilian eleetors reaclied- tlie 1,000-, 000' mark for the iirst time, but 10 per eent. fewer voted- than in- the 193S poll. Tlie* per"eentages of votes cast to the numbers on tlie roll in the last' nine eleetions were: —

The average percentage or those eleetions was 36.99, so that the 1943 poll was at least 4 per eent. below what might lmve been expected, but the figures show a gradually rising tendency, so that the drop was greater even than that. Probably the war had some ett'eet, as the lowest figure of all those quoted was in the near-war year of 1919. Labour Party leaders believe that most of those who neglected to vote would support their party, but there is no evidence to support' this view. Neither is there any evidence to support the opposite' corTtention that the ; majoritv of them would" sopport the National Party.

Low Labour Polls It is a fact that the lowest polls were mostly in Labour strongholds. The only electorates where under S0 per eent. of eleetors voted at the last election were Auckland Central, Christchurch East, Dunedin West, Manawatu (held by National), Wellington Central, Wellington East, Wellington North (only 75.73), and Wellington South. It* might be argued that the 'eleetors who did not vote would have voted in mucli the same.proportion as those who did not go to the poll. It might equally be argued that supporters of the least popular party in those electorates did not thiillc it was worth easting their votes in a forlorn hope. There is. a tendency for the. poll to be high in hard-fought eontests;. for instance, Oamaru, with SS.ll, had the best record at the last election. On the other hand, some of the liigliest- pe'rcentages were in districts Avhere the result was clear cut, such as ►Stratford and Egmont. In any case, the overall result was so close in 1943 that heavy polling might have been j expected g'enerally. Was It Indecision? - The opinion of some elose observers * is that the big factor in the low polling of 1943 was indecision on the part of eleetors. They suggest that 1931 was a parallel, and that Ihe silent eleetors of that year got down off the fenee in 1935. It- is a guess whether they got down on the side of Labour or on the side that was not the Government side. Whatever the reason for 100,090 voters abstaining from voting in 1943, tliev could have completely altered the result if they had wished to. Five per eent. more voters could have givert the Labour Party up to seven more seats or up to 12 fewer. Another 5 per eent. could have given Labour up to 12 more or up- to'20 fewer. At the extremes Labour could have won the election with 53 seats or the National Party with 46. Changes in electoral boundaries have made guessing about the result of the 1-946 election even more diftieult than usual, but a bigger unkuown factor is the clestination of those 100,000 votes which, history suggests, will not be withheld for two eleetions running.

1914 S4.66 1931 83:26 1919 80.53 1935 90:75 1922 S8.65 1938 92:85 1925 .... 90.92 1943' S21S2 192S S8.50