The Bay of Plenty Beacon Published Mondays Wednesdays and Fridays. WEDNESDAY, MAY 8th, 1940. THE NEXT MOVE

Bay of Plenty Beacon, Volume 2, Issue 157, 8 May 1940, Page 4

The Bay of Plenty Beacon Published Mondays Wednesdays and Fridays. WEDNESDAY, MAY Bth, 1940. THE NEXT MOVE

UGLY as the war situation undoubtedly is at present, it is not nearly as ominous as it was about the same stage in the last war,, and there are still real avenues for hope in the situation. Germany has the greater part of Norway, it is true, but the British seem to be practically ready to seize and hold Narvik, which will nullify many of the advantages which Germany hoped to secure by their invasion. Then though Italy seems completely ready to side with Germany by provoking a crisis in the Mediterranean, there still remain three great factors that may restrain precipitaate a'ction. The first is the presence of the Allied troops in handy positions throughout the Near East; the second, that though Italy is bent upon expansion, it seems difficult to believe that she would be in the long run welcome a German victory that would result in this country completely dominating Europe; and the third is the attitude of the United States to the European situation, and to the position of Italy in particular. If Italy comes into the war, thus tying up the British fleet, then Japan might move into the the Dutch East' Indies —probably Hitler would open the way to such an action by an invasion of Holland. America first and foremost wants to preserve the status quo in these waters, and she is concerned regarding Italy's intentions on this account. There having been no diplomatic statements regarding the talks of the last few days between America and Italy, it is •difficult to say how far the former country appreciates the position. Then there is a growing realisation in America of the position in which the United States would find herself in the event of a German victory. With the whole of the coastlines of the two Americas to protect she would; have a fleet that could scarcely face the Japanese naval forces, smaller in tonnage but with more modern vessels,, with complete confidence. Another factor to be considered in relation to the position of the Allies .is that Norway may become a mere side-issue. From the manner in which events are shaping at the present time the Balkans seem to be the most likely field of large-scale operations. The next few weeks will bring many surprises., and it is probable that not all of them will be unwelcome.