THE WORLD'S SUPPLY OF GRAIN.

Waikato Times, Volume XXXVII, Issue 3008, 24 October 1891, Page 5 (Supplement)

THE WORLD'S SUPPLY OF GRAIN.

There is no product of tho soil of such immense importance to mankind as that of grain, and particularly wheat. All cla-scs in all lnnd-i are deeply interested in its successful production ; insomuch as it is only by means of good seasonbringing forth bountiful harvests that bread—the great staff of life—becomes cheap and within the reach of all. For sorno years past breadstufls have been extraordinarily cheap iu tho world's market**. This has been attributed to extensive regions of virgin soil being brought under cultivation, the quickest returns to those occupying them generally being obtained from wheat; iu fact, grain—in the opinion of those best able to judge—has been produced and sold at less than its cost. Even in this colony cases are not rare where grain growimg upon a large scale has through the low prices obtained brought disaster instead of profit to the agriculturist. This state of thiugs could not possibly last for any length of time. The two important factors, sometimes overlooked, of an ever increasing world's population, combined with a decreasing area of suitable land, have been steadily if silently at work. These, accelerated by the late bad seasons through- ! out Europe, have brought matters to a crisis. Russia is now suffering all the horrors of a terrible famine, their main grain crops having completely failed, and the grain question throughout the world is fast attracting public attention. In view of the important changes which are taking place in the prices, and future prospects of the food grains, a Bhort resume (taken from the New York Sun) of the principal grain growing countries, will not be without interest

The winter of IS9O-91 was exceptional in all parts of Kurope and Northern Africa, and in that wide region the ryo and wheat orops suffered great damage from the rigors of the season. Iu much of Continental Europe the spring and summer have not been such as to repair this damage, even in a slight degree. On the contrary, in most European countries, the unfavourable conditions have been greatly intensified by a spring and summer that kave shown periods of abnormal heat .followed by ethers of unusual cold and killing frosts, to be again followed by execs sive heats and scorching drought, so that tho crops aro now in a seate that indicates, at the best, but a meagre product.

In Great Britain the wheat is late aid in many districts thin, with summer heat much below what is required to mature a full yield. Conservative English farmers and large wheat growers estimate the wheat at from eight to ten per cent, below an avarage, which, with the reduced acreage would give about 04,000,000 bushels. British imports having of late average! about 152,000,000 bushels, and the annual additions to the population augmenting the requirements by 1,000,000 bushels per annum, the present need may bo put at 1G2,000.000 bushels. (Since ihii was written, severe storms have done great damage to the grain crops in England.

The earth freezing unusually early tho last winter, many of tho French fields that were unsown, and this with the fields that were bare through the winter killing of tho plant, has left the wheat acreage of France fully 8,500,000 acres below the avorage. This represents a loss of 62,000,000 bushels, while the remaining 13,500,000 acres are not likely to produce over 70 per cent of an average of yield. Thus we have a loss of 72,000,000 bushols, making the crop 134,000,000 bushels below the average of 310,000,000 bushels shown during the last decade. The average imports of Franco having for ten years been 31,000,000 bushels, the imports now required would apptar to be 165,000,000, To this might be added 15,000,000 for the estimated defioit in the rye crop, which has of late years averaged 75,000,000 bushels.

A despatch dated at Berlin Juno 30, states that a Government report places the condition of the Prussian wheat crop 17 per cent below tho average ; and as the weather since has not been such as to indicate any improvements, and as Prussia produces over half tho wheat and fivesixths of tho rye grown in the German einpiro, it would appear that this is a fair measure of the condition of the German crops. Thus we have a shortage of 16,000,000 bushels of wheat and 55,000,000 bushels of rye rendering necessary in Germany the Importation of 36.000,000 bushels of wheat and 75,000,000 bushels of rye.

In Austria-Hungary the wheat and rye crops are 15 to 20 per cent, below the average, so that exports of either will be nil, as 15 per cent, is more of the crop than has been exported of late years. Thus, at best, the dual ompire has only enough for its o#n home necessities.

From Italy tho reports also show conditions 20 per cent, below the average ; but calling the loss only 10 per cent, imports of 44,000,000 bushels will bo necessary.

Spanish crops promise a yield from 15 to 25 per cent, below the average, and a deficit of 15 per cent, means the importation of 26,000,000 bushols.

In Belgium tho conditions nro macli the same as in northern France, and die promise of but little more than half a crop of either wheat or rye, indicatos a probable need beyond home production of about 40,000,009 bushels of both grains. Switzerland annually imports about 13,000,000 bushels of wheat, and owing to tho condition of her sir all crops, will now require about 2,000,000 bushels more; while Portugal, Holland, and Scandinavia will require such additional imports of wh«at and rye as will make good a deficit of 15 per cent, in tho homo production. Syria has but a very poor crop, owing to drought and locust ravages, and can spare little or no grain for export. In Asia Minor the crops are exceedingly fine, and both wheat and barley will bo exported in unusual quantities. Tunis and Egypt will have fiir crops and Gan spare about the usual amounts ; but Morocco and Algiers have been devastated by locusts, and famine is not improbable in either or both countries.

Persia is reported as having suffered great damage from locusts, especially in the southern part, and the Shah is said to have prohibited the exportation of grain, but this is doubtful. Probably Europe ■will, as usual recoive small supplies from this source.

Australasia and South America have already exported all that can be spared from their last orop, and the coming one is not far enough along to requiro comment, except to say that the two regions will do remarkably well if they Bend each 5,000,000 bushels of grain to Eurape. In the first three months of the cereal year, beginning April 1, India will have shipped 23,000,000 bushels of wheat as againft a total shipment in tho whole of 1890 of 25,000,000 bushels. The crop, which had been harvested is the best for several years, and the exports are likely to be the largest for many years and very probably the largest ever known. From Russia the accountß are most deplorable, and the details as to the lamentable condition of the crops and the distress alroady prevailing over a vory great part of central Russia, preclude the possibility of any serious exportation from that county. Indeed, if the Russian peasant are to be prevented from dying of starvating by the million, immense imports of food would seem to be necessary as well as grain wherewith to sow the fields. Tho winter wheat erop, except in some half dozen provinces, is saob an

entire failure that it is very doubtful if it will roturn tho «eed sown. In uvrnv of the provinces the rye fiolds will not return tho seed sown, while the spring wheat, as a whole, will not bo more t.h;>n two-thirds of a crop, and is likely to he but a half or even lea*. Tho most conservative estimates place tho lo*s of Urn winter wheatat two-thirds of the crop, or 50,01)0,000 bushels; aud that of tho spring wheat at oue-third, an average crop of spring wheat boing 140,000,000 bushels. This makes tho loss of both kinds of wheat aggregate 100,000,000 bushel*, which is 10,008,000 bushels, more thnn the average exports of the last five yen™, and 24,000,000 bushels moro than the average exports of ten years. This shows very clearly that, even were there not a great deficit in the ryo crop, the power of Russia to export whoat has been destroyed until auother crop be grown. But this is not tho worst fact for the great Northern Einpiro. The rye crop, including that of Poland and Finland, has averaged during tho last ten years 725,000,000 bushels per annum, and tho rye exports (30,000,000 bushels, mostly to Germany, Belgium, Holland, and Scandinavia, Now, however, tho rye crop of Russia is practically destroyed, estimates of tho yield raugc from 25 to 00 per ccnt. of an average. Accepting the highest yield that even the most optimistic experts can give us, tho deficit will reach the enormous total of 290,000,000 bushels to be added to a deficit of 100,600,000 bushels of wheat, clearly showing, if the estimates are only approximately correct, that the exporting power of Russia has been obliterated and her 100,000,000 people loft with, ak best, but 550,000,000 bushels; or, if we take he medium figures, but 450,000,000, out of the 800,000,000 bushels of wheat and rye that aro annually required for homo consumption. Can there be any other result than the cessation of all exports, and the death of great multitudes from starv ition ?

To-day, before the ordinary date for tho harvest, famine prevails in the provinces of Kaluga, Kazan, Kostroma, Kursk, Moscow, Nijni-Novgorod, Orel, Penza, Ryazan, Samara, Saratoft', Sirabrisk, Taraboff, Tula, Vladimir, Vorenr.j, Vyatka, and tho northern Don Cossack country. Indeed, in a few of those provinces famine has already existed for some months. It is most significant hat eighteen of the most populous and productive of the fifty»orie provinces of Russia proper, containing a population of 39,000,000, or 45 per cant, of th» Empire, should bo reduced to a state of famine beforo the harvest season. It shows conclusively that the grain rcsorvos of this great exporting country have luceti completely exhausted, and that the rich black earth region has oversold itself. It also goes far to prove that notwithstanding the fact that tho world's wheat crop of 1890 was 50,000,000 bushels above tho average, the world is to-day the possessor of loss wheat an! ryo than for many years, and that population has so increased that ourreut production is less than current needs.

A conservative estimate requirements to be met, and a most liberal one as to possible supplies, results as follows, wheat and rye being treated as one, since the world has come to that pass that tho hungry will be glad to get either; RKQL'IRKI) JMPOUTS OF BYK AND WHEAT. Bushels. United Kingdom 102,000,000 France 165,000,000 Germany 111,000,000 Italy 44,000,000 Spain 20,000,000 Belgium 40,000,000 Holland 20.000,000 Switzerland 15,000,000 Portugal, Greece, Scandinavia, &c. 20,000,000 Tropical island, Cape Colony Brazil, Central Ainorica and and Eastern Asia 25,000,000 Russia 250,000,000 Total 878,000,000 riIOIiABLB EXPORTABLE SURPLUS IN Bushels. North American 150,000,000 India 45,000,000 Rouinania and Bulgaria ... 25,000,000 Austria-Hungary 10,000,000 AustrnUsia 0,000.000 South Amorica ... ... 0.000,000 Servia 3,000,000 Tnrkoj* 2,000,000 Asia Minor, Syria, Persia, Cyprus, and North Africa, 12,000,000 Total 259,000,000 Tho apparent world'sdeficit of Wheat and Ryo ... ... 619,000,000 If our table is erroneous, it is by reason of making the shortage of wheat and ryo too littlo, and estimating tho available supplies too highly.

Russia is included among tho nations requiring imports, not because it is expected that sho will become an importer, since supplies are not to be had, but to show what aro the world's needs as well as the utter fallacy of expecting exports of wheat from a country wbere all tho breadstuff which will exist, will be insufficient for requirements by not loss than 25,000,000 bushels. It is not probablo that whore wheat and rye crops have suffered such destruction, those of tho other cereals have escaped ; and while little is said about barley, oats, and raaizo, it is altogether probablo that Russian exports of those grains, which have averaged about 120,000,000 bushels of late years, will be suspended for this year, as whatever of these grains may be produced will bo needed at home to sustain human and animal life.

Eliminating Russia fruttn the problem, as either a source of supply, which sho oannot be, or as an importer, the remainder off Europe will still be short 369,000,000, bushels of wheat and rye after the outside world has seut to that continent every bushel of grain that can be spared. What does this portend ! Is it possible to conceive the unutterable misery and distress, disease, desolation, and death which a famine of such proportions islikoly to bring in its train ?

Is not Europe face to face with a state of want such as never threatened so great a population since the dawn of history ?

Has man ever witnessed starvation upon the scale whioh is probable as the result of this continent-wide destruction of corps ?