MAIL NEWS.

Waikato Times, Volume XXVIII, Issue 2275, 8 February 1887, Page 2

MAIL NEWS.

The Alameda arrived on Saturday at Auckland with the European and American mails. From our exchanges we take the following:— AFFAIRS ON THE CONTINENT. London, December 24th. During the week the war rumours have steadily increased. And there are more than rumours. The official newspapers of Berlin openly speak of war as within measurable distance. What is more, Germany is steadily and swiftly placing her armaments on a footing of preparedness for instant action. France is doing the same. We hear of vast military preparations in Russia. The work of re-fortifying Sebastapol is being hurried on with feverish haste. According to latest intelligence, a special Military Committee, sitting in St. Petersburg, has elaborated a complete plan of campaign against England in Central Asia. Turkey is massing troops in Macedonia, evidently with a definite intent. Russian troops are concentrating on the border of German Poland. Even Belgium is being stirred by the warlike spirit which is abroad; and seems to participate in the coming fray. She could hardly again keep neutral, in a war between France and Germany. Little Switzerland is looking to the strength of her resources, ft is reported that confidential communications of a friendly kind have passed between the German and Swiss-Governments in regard to this question. Austria is, of course, ready to fight, and the strained relations between Austria and Russia form one of the most alarming , features of the situation. A warlike feeling is also spreading in Italy. In no quarter is the hope felt that peace will be maintained. The conduct of Turkey, in intriguing \vith Russia, has elicited from the British Government a plain notification thiit if this behaviour De continued, the Porte must abandon once for all her expectation of help from England. Turkey is, in fact, called upon to make definite choice between England and Russia. Turkey has been indulging in vain imaginings if she be persuaded that England must under all circumstances support her. England has a supreme interest in the disposal of Constantinople, but none in keeping the Turks there, whatever they may do, or not do. Great Britain will look after lu:r own interests and defend them, as Lord Salisbury said, '* with her own strong arm." With Bulgaria, beyond insisting on the maintenance of treaties and ranging herself on the side of those who uphold them, England has no great concern. England's sympathies are, of course, with the oppressed against the oppressor and with the weak against the strong, and she is gravely concerned in the restraint of barbarous aggression ; but other Powers, who are more directly interested than England is, must be left to take the initiative. The Bulgarian deputies have been "unofficially " received by Count Herbert Bismarck, who is said, by some, to have advised them to come to terms with Russia. This advice can hardly have been given seriously. It is stated that the deputies were, on the whole, satisfied with their

reception in Berlin. They are to go to Paris next, and, afber that, to England, where they are sure to be well received by the British public. The dispute about the Throne of Bulgaria remains at a deadlock. The Government have been taking vigorous action against the authors of the " Plan of Campaign " against rents in Ireland, and the leaders of the seditions agitation generally. Legal proceedings are pending against a large number of these persons, some of whom were caught in the very act of appropriating the moneys due from tenants to their landlords. Messrs Dillon and Healey have made violent, speeches, denouncing the action of the Government, and preaching something like re bellion. Christmas finds us in the thick of '•ho struggle between the law of the Queen ■ind the law of the National League. The speech of Prince Bismarck in the German Reichstag is remarkable for its lirect bluntness. There is nothing mealynouthed about it, and no attempt to veil lie speaker's meaning behind double and riple meaning phrases. Bismarck is a liplomat, he is wonderfully skilful in con•ealing his real purpose. Indeed, it mav lw said that in this capacity his right hand seldom knows what his left is doing. But he is not a parliamentarian, and he does ■wt understand how to create a profound impression upon a popular assembly withmt, to use a common phrase, " giving limself away." So when he came to distuss the military bill before the Reichstag md to explain the why and the wherefore >f military preparation he handled things vithout gloves ; he, so to express it, spoke right out in meeting. He said that it was necessary for Germany to be ready to meet France in armed conflict, and that such a meeting was to be apprehended. This is what Bismarck thinks, and he is a pretty good judge. True, he added some saving clauses as to time, but they are immaterial. The principal fact is that Bismarck, a man of great discernment and large sources of information anticipates war. Upon the other hand, the present French Ministry, while ostentatiously proclaiming its desire for peace and its belief that peace will be maintained, has increased this year's extraordinary military credit from 50,000,000 to 80,000,000 francs, and, it is said, will ask for a further credit of 87,n00,000 francs to enable it to commence the manufacture of rifles and increase the national defences. These facts speak louder than words.

A gentleman, who knows France very well, states that the great majority of Frenchmen do not really wish for another war with Germany, and that this is trno even of the great majority of French politicians. At the same time, he admits that it is perfectly true that nine out of every ten Frenchmen are ready to shout for a war of revenge—a war to re-conquer Alsace and Lorraine. There is no real contradiction between these apparently opposite statements; for much as a Frenchman may fear or dislike such a war, he has a still greater fear and dislike of frankly saying so. He would be called unpatriotic and poor-spirited by his neighbours, and someone els« who still harped on the "Revanche" would get in front of him. So he feels compelled to keep up the bellicose talk which in his inmost soul he detestß. It is the fashion ; and no one, above all no politician, dares to break with it.

Apart from the question of war, the situation in France is very grave. The decreasing stability of each successive Government, with an increasing , tendency in a Radical direction, is causing the greatest anxiety to everyone possessed of realised property. The diminishing yield in the revenue is forcing the Finance Ministers to look out for new sources of taxation, and it is generally believed that it cannot be long

before an income tax is imposed. Tho very thought of this is hateful to all Frenchmen, V so that no Minister dare even allude to it, jfp' on pain of instant dismissal. But without an important increase in revenue, or a serious decrease in expenditure, matters must come to a crisis in a very brief time. The alternative which will then present itself is either internal revolution or a foreign war. As a whole, the people of . Franee do not desire war ; but so desperate is the condition of the working classes, through the competition of German industry, and the influx of Italian and Swiss unskilled labour, that war, with its chances / of success and relief from the crushing pressure of the treaty with Germany, seems to them preferable to a prolongation of the present state. Jt is for this reason that General Boulanger has obtained a hold over the imagination of the peopiti by his activity itnd his show of democratic leanings. They hope, even if they do not believe, that he y may prove a leader to victory. What is «••■ chiefly feared in France is a sudden summons from Germany to disarm. This* challenge naturally would receive a defiant answer, followed by an initnediate advance of the German Army, and in addition an attack from Italy, to recover the lost provinces of Nice and Savoy and the cession of Tunis.