POPULATION TRENDS IN NEW ZEALAND

Wanganui Chronicle, Volume 83, Issue 48, 27 February 1939, Page 6

POPULATION TRENDS IN NEW ZEALAND

’"pHE population of New Zealand provides an interesting illustration of the general tendency which is in evidence in many countries of the world. The population is increasing, but it may be doubted whether it, is increasing fast enough to maintain present numbers.

“Since 1875, 74 per cent, of the increase of New Zealand’s population (other than Maori) has come from excess of births over deaths, and 26 per cent, from the net migration increase, declares the Government Statistician in his annual report, on population. “In the post-war era from 1921-37 the percentage furnished by natural increase has risen to only 79. and such rise, even, is due to the conversion of a moderate inflow through migration to a .small outflow in the. years 1931-35. The natural increase ratio was formerly unusually high in New Zealand, the annual average, for instance, reaching 29.41 per 1000 of mean population in the quinquennium 1870-1880. The figure of 8.21 per 1000 showed an improvement on the 1936 figure of 7.89. which was the lowest point reached in Ihe long decline.’ What does this trend in an upward direction mean? Is it likely to presage a higher percentage of natural increase in the future? If so. it, will be to the good, for a nation population which grows older is consistently approaching extinction. The population is certainly consistently growing older in New Zealand •. by that is meant there are more older people in the populaton than formerly. New Zealand’s natural increase has been brought about, not so much by the increase in births—indeed the birth-rate has shown a persistent general tendency to decline—but by the lengthening of the span of life for many people. This process cannot, of course, go on indefinitely for the time will come when the older people will contribute more and more heavily to the death-rate, when the population will suffer a severe decline if reliance continues to be placed on the natural increase of the resident population.

There have, however, been several limiting factors operating on the population of the Dominion. In the first place the war years were 1914-1919, which, being over two decades ago, can be expected to have influenced the total of persons coming of age in the last four years. The preponderance of marriages ar? contracted around twenty to twenty-five- years of age, so the effect of the war was to reducejhe number of persons coming of age during the last few years so the marriage-rat? would naturally have tended to decline during the years which immediately passed by.

Aifded to the fact that there were fewer marriageable people during the last f?ur or five years has been the cl'feet of the depression on those who have attained to. marriageable age. Owing to the uncertainty of their positions they nave naturally deferred contracting marriages and thereby adding to their responsibilities. This in turn has affected the birth-rate adversely.

More favourable economic conditions have, however, had their effect on the marriage-rate, resulting in the birthrate showing a forward movement once again. The birth-raW’i as moved as follows during the iast five years: —1933, 16.63 per 1000; 1934, 16.51; 1935, 16.17 ; 1936, 16.64; 1937, 17.29. It will be interesting to observe whether this tendency to an increasii?',’ birth-rate continues in sufficient strength to offset an increasing death-rate. If it does not do so then it is probable that 1 New Zealand will have to stimulate immigration in order to maintain her population. The refugee may, thereupon, prove to be the salvation of the country which now offers him a haven.