Wairarapa Times-Age MONDAY, MARCH 18, 1940. PEACE IN THE PACIFIC.

Wairarapa Times-Age, 18 March 1940, Page 6

Wairarapa Times-Age MONDAY, MARCH 18, 1940. PEACE IN THE PACIFIC.

WHEN the first Australian Minister to the United States (Mr R. G. Casey) was welcomed in Washington last week, he said, amongst other things, that: —

Australia had never believed that the centre of gravity was moving towards the Pacific. The real centre of gravity was Europe. “We see no reason to believe that the Pacific will be a cockpit of war in our time,” Mr Casey added.

It is, of course, not in doubt that the present storm-centre of world affairs is located in Europe, but to assume that it is bound ,1o remain fixed there might, be to take too much for granted. It must be hoped that “there is no reason to believe that the Pacific will become a cockpit of war in our time,” but the situation holds some possibilities which the people oJ. Australia and those of New Zealand would be unwise to ignore.

The outlook would be changed profoundly, for example, and assuredly not for the better from the point of view of the British Empire and its South Pacific Dohiinions, in the event of an accord being established between Soviet .Russia and Japan. On a number of grounds it may seem that any dra'wing together of these two Powers is unlikely; but as much might have been, said about the existing pact between Soviet Russia and Nazi Germany until it had been concluded. The Soviet Premier and Commissar for Foreign Affairs (M. Molotov) has made it clear that he wants an accord with Japan. Soon after war broke out in Europe he succeeded in bringing about a termination of the serious fighting that had occurred between Soviet and Japanese troops in the Mongolian borderlands.

He then (in the words of a recent American writer) proposed a settlement of all pending Russo-Japanese differences and the signature of a trade treaty, and did not challenge repeated reports from Berlin that a Russo-Japanese non-aggression treaty, presumably on the Russo-German model, could be expected.

Thus far, Japan has not responded to the Soviet overtures, save in the limited extent slated, but. one Japanese Government after another has proclaimed of late that the cardinal aim of Japanese foreign policy is to end the China war in a manner satisfactory to Japan. If in pursuit and furtherance of that aim Japan established even a temporary and insecure accord with Russia, new problems and dangers might arise in the Pacific.

Against the hopeful view expressed by l\lr Casey in Washington, (here may be set opinions of a very different trend held by a considerable number of people in the United States and elsewhere. Recently, for example, the New York “Daily News,” in an article in which it urged that American attention should be concentrated on the Pacific rather than on Europe, observed that, as affairs were going in China, it was hard to see how Chiang Kai-shek could win. though he would probably hold on for a lime, and added:—

With China subjugated the sky will be the limit to Japan's ambitions ... So it is up to us to keep our eyes on Japan; and to keep ourselves armed with a possible Japanese war always in view; and to do what we can to stymie Japan at every opportunity.

.Much depends, no doubt, on i.whether the extreme militarists attain, or are prevented from attaining, undisputed power in Japan. The possibility has been recognised that Japan’s extreme militarists, if they had their way. might, pul their country—a country possessed of the third largest navy ami one of the most powerful armies in the world —in the European war on the side of Germany and Russia.

Standing opposed as they do to the lawless invasion of China, the Allies can make no fi’iendlv approach Io Japan. Only the other day, the British Under-Secretary for Foreign Affairs (Mr R. A. Butler) stated in the House of Commons that it was still Britain's policy that the independence of China should be preserved. Any retreat from that stand would lie discreditable to the Allies and is. it may be supposed, uni (linkable.

Hopes of continued pence in Hie I’acilic appear, in these circumstances, to rest on two main factors. One of these is .Japan’s deep-rooted hostility Io Russia. based on rivalries that will not easily be extinguished. Tin* other is the fear Japan may enferlain very reasonably of inviting' conllicl with the I’nitcd States. Apart from Ihe military questions involved. .Japanese-American commercial dealings are of paramount importance to .Japan. and indeed are by no means unimportant to the t'nited States, who Ims at present in .Japan tier third Jarvest foreign customer.