Wairarapa Times-Age MONDAY, MARCH 4, 1940. PRESIDENTIAL STRATEGY.

Wairarapa Times-Age, 4 March 1940, Page 4

Wairarapa Times-Age MONDAY, MARCH 4, 1940. PRESIDENTIAL STRATEGY.

v ACCORDING to a message from Washington which ,was published on Saturday, the “Presidential possibilities ol the American Secretary’ of State (Mr Cordell Hull) are likely to be increased greatly by the extension of the reciprocal trade policy for which he has been largely responsible. The consensus of opinion, the message stated, is that Mr Hull is the best available compromise candidate if Mr Roosevelt cloe,s not run.

Whether Air Roosevelt is or is not likely to seek election for a third term remains, however, as uncertain as ever. Largely on account of the active and sustained interest the President is manifesting in the ultimate re-establishment of peace, the question of his possible retention in office engages seiious attention in European and other countries as well as in the United States.

As one commentator observed recently, a change in the American Government at a lime when war is raging abroad could definitely affect the fortunes of other nations and might easily presage'a change in American foreign policy. A. dominant figure in his own country by both party and national standards, Mr Roosevelt has inspired confidence and respect also in the Allied nations. While he has abstained from any premature peace' move which could only have been rebuffed, his reported aim in the present situation is that the United States should have a voice in the peace arrangements which some day must be made. He thinks, it has been said, that “when peace is made neutrals will have a stake in it, particularly a nation which with a vast percentage of the world’s material resources, with the greater part of the world’s gold supply in its vaults, and perhaps a nation with the most powerful navy afloat.” I

It is by no means improbable that- American co-operation in consolidating and stabilising peace when it is established —eo-operation that would follow logically on the tentative part President Roosevelt has thus far taken in international affairs—would be invited and welcomed by the Allied democracies. Whether, however, Mr Roosevelt is likely to be still at the head of his nation (when the day to make peace arrives is at present rather doubtful. The possibility of a third-term candidacy cannot be taken for granted. Should it prove to be impracticable, a smooth continuance of the present foreign policy of the- United States no doubt would best be ensured by the election to the Presidency of Mr Hull. It appears plainly, however, that if it were once known that Mr Roosevelt would not be in the field again as a candidate, the wtay would be opened to the possibility of_ great changes in both domestic and foreign policy in the United States. Some of the Republican aspirants to the Presidential nomination, notably Senator A. 11. Vandenberg, are isolationists. 'With so much hinging on his decision on the third term question, Mr Roosevelt has shrouded his intentions in complete secrecy. Well-informed opinion in the United States is that he will continue to do so until the latest possible moment. It is pointed out that if the President announced his candidacy for a third term his decision would be attacked, not only by his Republican opponents, but by those Democrats —an apparently numerous section—who for one reason or another oppose a third term for Mr Roosevelt or any other American. As a Washington correspondent wrote not long ago, the President would be immediately on the defensive months before the nominating convention and nearly a year before the next election. He sees no sense in that. Should he declare himself out of the contest of 1940 by saying that under no circumstances would he accept another nomination, he would lose control of his party. Such renunciation would be tantamount to his resignation as the Democratic leader. ... A belief is spreading in political quarters that the President will make no public declaration of his purpose until the nominating convention has actually met and has named a ticket. A very good ease is made out for (his belief. If Mr Roosevelt. is asked by his party, spontaneously and without any intervention on his own part, to accept nomination for a third term, his opponents twill be badly placed to press the contention that he is outraging the tradition against, a third term. If he is not nominated by the party convention, it will be open to the President to say that he had not thought of seeking election for a third term. Meantime Mr Roosevelt is in a stronger position of leadership than if he had made known any decision on the third term question. Political strategy apart, it is no doubt wise and desirable that the President should, maintain his powers of leadership unimpaired as long as possible. Even in the few months that are to pass before the Democratic Convention meets, the face of international affairs may change to such an extent to react powerfully upon American polities. Conditions conceivably may develop in which the people, of the United States would be unwilling to part with a leader of Mr Roosevelt’s calibre.