Wairarapa Times-Age MONDAY, JANUARY 15, 1940. ADJUSTMENT IN JAPAN.

Wairarapa Times-Age, 15 January 1940, Page 4

Wairarapa Times-Age MONDAY, JANUARY 15, 1940. ADJUSTMENT IN JAPAN.

ALTHOUGH it may be of limited immediate significance, the resignation of the Japanese Cabinet is not without an interesting bearing on Ihe course of events in the Far Last and. further afield. According to news from London, the action of the retiring Prime Minister, General Abe, is believed to be due to the difficulties he has experienced in improving relations with the United States. That these, difficulties are serious may be believed readily. Nothing eifecthe has been done to abate grievances relating to the treatment by the Japanese of American nationals and trade in China —grievances which led the United States Government nearly six months ago to give notice of,the termination of its commercial treaty with Japan. The period of notice expires on January Lb next, and unless some agreement is reached Japan will then suffer a serious economic setback'.

It has been suggested that in resentment at the pressure the United States is seeking to .impose, Japan may turn Io Russia, with results which would make themselves leli extensively in world affairs. .One commentator observed recently that although a political liaison between Moscow and Tokio would be a strange ideological marriage it would be no more incredible than the alliance of Nazis and Communists. Superficially this opinion may appear to derive some support Irom the fact that as long ago as November last Genera] Abe declared that Japan was attempting to compose her differences, with Russia, while M. Molotoff announced that Japanese overtures to that end were looked on with favour by the Soviet.

On the total facts in sight, however, any far-reaching agreement between the Soviet and Japan appears as improbable as ever. In the latest political upset there is nothing to suggest that the grip of the militarist camarilla by which Japan is dominated and controlled so completely lias been weakened. An expectation lias been expressed, lor instance, that the Japanese Diet, “will either be suspended or sent into recess in order to allow a new examination of the Budget. ' The militarists evidently are still in control and there is nothing to suggest that they are likely to throw up the sponge on account. of°difficnlties arising from economic action the United Slates is taking and the possibility that this action may include the imposition of a trade embargo.

The Japanese militarists and the Soviet Government are pursuing' aims so completely and so directly opposed, however, that any extended agreement between them appears to be quite impossible. It. has been said with justice that a real RussoJapanese rapprochement seems practicable only it one or other of the parties abandons its .Far Eastern policy. .11. Japan were prepared to go as far as that —notably by abandoning her invasion of China—she would have more 1o hope from seeking the friendship of the democracies than from attempting to reach any kind of working agreement with Russia. On the other hand, the Soviet is unlikely in its own interests to consider a change of policy which would leave China at the mercy oi Japan. Tn some observations on this subject, the Shanghai correspondent, of the “Sydney Morning Herald,' Mr 11. G. W. Woodhead, wrote recently:—

One cannot imagine any conceivable advantage that would accrue (to the Soviet) from throwing over China, and conniving at the establishment of a Japanese protectorate over this country. An agreement to share the spoils could hardly be acceptable to Japan, who certainly has no desire to augment her military responsibilities by agreeing to the existence of a Chinese Communist State in the western half of China. Japan's main avowed objective being the uprooting of Communist influence throughout China and the establishment of a huge anti-Communist butler State on the continent, it appears grotesque to imagine her conceding to the Soviet a free hand in vast areas which her own armies have not occupied, and whose artificial frontiers not to mention racial partition—would confront her with military problems which it would obviously be beyond her capacity to shoulder indefinitely.

Although there has been some talk in the United States and elsewhere of -Lipan playing' oil Russia and the United Slates against each oilier. -Japan’s actual opportunities in that category appear to be definitely restricted. She has reached a limited measure of agreement with the Soviet, notably over the question of sea fisheries, lint the prospect of tun more extended Russo-Japanese agreement still appears remote. Il no doubt follows that -Japan is in a serious degree vulnerable to the economic pressure the United Stales now threalens Io impose, but recent news from Washington does not encourage a belief that the American Government will use the economic weapon boldly on behalf of China. It is suggested rather that; while demands for the restoration to American nationals in (’hina of the trading and living rights they formerly enjoyed there will be pressed energetically, lhe 1 niled States will be content to assert in merely general terms ils continued protest “in morality and principle against the Japanese aggression in China.”