The Daily News. FRIDAY, AUGUST 2, 1918. THE GERMAN GAMBLE.

Taranaki Daily News, 2 August 1918, Page 4

The Daily News. FRIDAY, AUGUST 2, 1918. THE GERMAN GAMBLE.

That the Germans recognise the defeat of their great offensive movements is evident from the efforts of General von Ludendorff to have the blame laid on Hindenburg's shoulders, but on that aspect of the fighting there is no occasion to dwell. When the Ger- - mans entered on their campaign this summer there were all the elements of a desperate gamble. They set out with the intention of ' obtaining a decisive victory by separating the British and French : forees, and then crushing them separately. Incidentally, there was to be a break through to the coast and the capture of Paris. .All the available troops that the Geroisn authorities could collect from the east and elsewhere were brought forward to assist in ths Work of defeating the AngloFrench. The enemy practically staked all his available resources on this trump card without troubling to carefully weigh the extent of the resistance likely to be encountered, and particularly omitting to take into account the American armies. These latter were probably deemed <jf no account in opposing the Teutonic storm troops and the picked soldiers of the Kaiser. The inevitable happened—the offensive failed, and it is now dawning on the German military party that their hopes of a decisive victory, which at one time soared to great heights, are now down to zero, and they will henceforth be compelled to adopt defensive tactics, possibly relieved by occasional coun-ter-attacks. The German High Command knew the strength they could rely upon, but totally failed to correctly estimate that of their opponents; hence their failure. Between the opening of the campaign and the counter-stroke by General Foch there were blunders on both sides, and had it not been for the Allies suffering two heavy local disasters on the Somme anil tlu-"lisne there is no question that the defeat inflicted on the enemy would have been a disaster of great magnitude. Yet, despite these adverse circumstances, the Germans have again and again been repulsed, and at last were driven back with great losses, and the Allies' advance is still progressing. There is no reliable data on which to estimate the losses of the enemy. The Allies have asserted, and are maintaining, their superiority, plainly indicating that the balance of advantages rests with them, notwithstanding their losses in men a. ' guns, while they have enormous linerican re■erves to draw u£oi composed of in en who are in eyw: way worthy Lo fight side by „nth the best of the soldiers that the Empire hass-placed ia4ke .field. It,is nob

pleasant to refer to British or Allied blunders, but there is this compensation—it was only when these blunders were committed that the Germans obtained success, and now that unity of command is an established fact, we do not look for a recurrence. Victory or defeat, when the opposing forces are so nearly equal, de-pends-on the disposition of the reserves. The forecast as to Germany's opening blow was so accurate that it seems incredible that the Allies' reserves were not at band to counter the attack, and it is stated that there is reason to believe this blunder cost the Allies 125,000 men in prisoners alone, besides 1500 guns, from 4000 to 5000 machine guns,'and a large quantity of stores. It is easy to conjecture what would have been the result had our reserves been massed at the decisive point. There is another matter that should be taken into consideration, namely, what the Germans have lost by staking their all on this western gamble. They •thereby lost the chance of crushing Italy—we can see now that this would not have been difficult for the concentrated German and Austrian forces—and later on sweeping the Allies out of the Balkans, and so being in a strong position next year to meet the full force of the American armies. As it is, the Germans have thrown away great opportunities in order to pursue a ''Will o' the Wisp," 'while the inroads made info their limited reserves have crippled .resisting power. Even a gambler, if he hopes-for success, must calculate his chances thoroughly, or -disaster will ensue. Germany failed to take this initial safeguard, and the failure of the gamble leaves her immensely weaker to stand up against the continually increasing strength of her opponents. The tide has turned, but we cannot afford to underestimate the enemy's capacity for utilising that force to which she appealed, and which is being used against her so effectively. General Smuts recently declared that it will not be long before the American army is as large as the Anglo-French. America is working night and day to turn out guns, aeroplanes, and ships, all of which will help to gain that final victory for which the Allies are i striving, and the recent successes ■serve the purpose of a great incentive to press forward with determination and confidence I goal ahead. ' i