WOOL AND GRAIN.

Taranaki Daily News, 25 January 1916, Page 6

WOOL AND GRAIN.

AFTER-WAR PROSPECTS. Though, the grain grower has had a somewhat thorny path to travel lately the wool-grower seems to be in a very good position (writes W.W.D. in the Press). The last series of sales at Christchurch show that, in spite of the fact that American competition was not in evidence except for a few lines, prices were firm all through, and it certainly is hard to see how the Americans, even if they had been in the market, could have boosted up values much higher, so keen were the Home buyers to get the wool. It is just as well that the wool-men—-the producers, that is—are having a good ,time now, for a great many people seem to think that there 19 a strong likelihood of a decided slump in •wool prices when the war is finished. They base their arguments on the fact that at present many millions of men in the Allied armies have to be provided for, and they are provided for on a very much more liberal scale than they—or the majority of them—would be in private life.

Under the most favorable circumstances a soldier on active service needs j about three complete service outfits in the course of a year. But over and above this there is the terrible wastage of war to be taken into consideration. A soldier might be served out with a new outfit, for instance; he might be one of many hundreds of men in the same circumstances situated in a front line trench. A successful enemy attack might cause that trench to be evacuated, and possibly hundreds of brand new great coats, caps, etc., would be left behind in the retreat. All the gear would fall into the hands of the enemy, of course, who doubtless would be very glad to get it. Then there would be the loss of the uniforms on the killed, and the wounded men who managed to get back to their hospitals would probably have cut up their clothes to get at \ and bandage their wounds. Even supposing their clothes had not been cut they would be damaged beyond further use by dried blood and dirt, and when that soldier was cured he would need yet another full new outfit. It does not need much wisdom to see that under these circumstances the wastage is enormous. When the war is ended all this huge demand, or at any rate a good deal of it, will cease. A'very large proportion of the men who form the armies are—in their private life—probably not in the habit of having three or more ■complete outfits of clothes, in the year. Many -would probably have only one, some not that, and thousands upon

thousands of the, poorer classes could only afford cotton garments, and mighty few of them in a year. All this must

inevitably mean a slackening off in the demand, one would think, and the natural consequence of the slack demand is a drop in price. On the other hand, the manufacture of other woollen goods must be greatly curtailed during the war, and this leeway will have to be made up, and at the same time there will be no accumulated stocks of wool to work upon. The price of wool after the Franco-Prussian war was higher than during the war, and there is a possibility that when the ordinary course of trade is resumed wool will be one of the articles most wanted.

It is at least possible that the meat and dairy produce markets may be affected to a greater extent. So far as the British armies are concerned they are,fed on a very liberal scale, more so, I fancy, than the rest of the soldiers of the Allies, but when hundreds of thousands of these men retire into their private capacities it is quite certain that their consumption of food will not be on the same scale as when they were being fed by a paternal and liberal Government. Hence it seems reasonable to assume that the demand will slacken to some extent for these commodities. Following on a drop in the prices of primary products a decline in the value of land would come, one would think, as a certainty. This view is held, I believe, by a number of expert financiers in the Dominion, but a good many practical 'farmers apparently differ from it, as I am informed by land agents that, generally speaking, transactions in land continue to be carried out with considerable confidence, and at high prices. Personally, I should think that blind confidence at the present time might almost be classed as a vice, and a farmer ;should eyercise the very greatest caution in land buying operations.