POPULATION AND REPRESENTATION.

Taranaki Daily News, 21 January 1916, Page 3

POPULATION AND REPRESENTATION.

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ESTIMATING THE POPULATION. If the only purpose of the census were to obtain tlie necessary data for the readjustment of the electoral boundaries Mr. Russell's plan would be entitled to very serious consideration. Up ito a certain point the electoral figures show the drift of population plainly enough for all practical purposes; but, of course, they throw no light upon what has happened since 1914 or upon what will happen before the next appeal to the constituencies. The census on which our present parliamentary representation is based was taken in April, 1911. That is nearly five years ago,* and we can estimate" only tiie drift that took place between the general election of 1911 and the general election of 1914. This, however, we can do with some approach to precision. During recent years the number of valid votes recorded at a general election have represented, roughly, half the population of the Dominion. If we assume this rule holds good in constituencies and provincial districts as well as in ithe Dominion as a whole we can get what seems to be a fairly accurate view of the movements of population between the last two general elections.

THE DRIFT NORTHWAPJX - The Dominion for the purpose of this illustration may be divided into four large provincial districts, the Auckland district, embracing twenty-two- constituencies, and the Wellington district, twenty constituencies, in the North Island, and the Canterbury district 20 constituencies, and the Otago district, fourteen constituencies, in the South Island. The following figures represent the votes polled in these districts at the elections of 1911 and 1014: — 1911 1914 Auckland . 140,597 165,251 Wellington .. 125,311 130,811! Canterbury 124,900 131,269 Otago ...... 58.522 88,571 These figures show an of 24,1i04 in Auckland, of 5505 in Wellington, of 0309 in Canterbury, and a decrease of 251 in Otago. It should be explained that no election having taken place in Gisborne in 1911, 7500 votes are credited to that constituency for the purpose of this comparison. Translating the vows into population, on the assumption already mentioned, it would appear that the population of the Auckland district increased by 49,308 during the three years, the population of Wellington by' 11,010, and the population of Canterbury by 12,018, while the population of Otago decreased by 502.

THE CABINET'S DECISION, The increases of population suggested hv the above figures approximate fairly ciose'.y to the average increase in the Dominion during recent years, but they necessarily take no account of the movements of' population since 1014. Any estimate of those would bo the merest guess-work, and probably to induce his colleagues from the Auckland district to forego' the census Mr. Russell would have to concede that the drift northward had continued up to the present time. Already the Auckland district socms emtitled to three new members, two probably to be drawn from Otago and one from the northern part of the So*th Island, and if its population continues to increase and multiply it may secure four or five on :the next readjustment of representation. It is reported that the Cabinet has definitely declared against Mr. Russell's suggestion to postnone the census till after The war, but it is now impossible to take it at the usual time, and it may be held over till the meeting of Parliament or even till April of next year.