The Daily News. TUESDAY, JUNE 1, 1915. THE CRITICAL MOMENT IN THE WAR.

Taranaki Daily News, Volume LVII, Issue 303, 1 June 1915, Page 4

The Daily News. TUESDAY, JUNE 1, 1915. THE CRITICAL MOMENT IN THE WAR.

Jsext in importance, to tlic average enquirer whose first question is, "How • long will tiie war last?" conies the equally portentous enquiry, "When will tile critical moment arrive in tiie western campaign ?" There are few authorities who are in a position to give any reliable information on either of these questions, in which the übiquitous "if must necessarily play a prominent , part. There is, however, "one of the three i-leverest young men in London," who is an adept writer on everything' and nothing, Mr. Hilaire 801100, who has ventured in the course of a lecture given by him at .Manchester to expound his views on the coming critical moment in the western campaign. Tt will be remembered tiiat Mi 1 . Belloc's forecast of the siege of Liege was remarkably veri--1 fled, but that may have been due more ■ to luck than anything else. That, however, will not rob his remarks on the critical moment of the absorbing inter--1 est in which this luminous writer can ' always weave into any subject lie takes up. He pointed out that the < lermlnis, whose Government had decided three years beforehand to have war after tiie harvest of 1914, went on to Paris at. the rate of eight to Ave, and tflie whole effort of the Allies had been to put a sufficient number of men into the field to turn the balance, with the result that the Oerman .superiority had been reduced to about seven to six-on the eastern line four to three, and in the west the numbers might be taken as about ei|ual. lie considered that before tie' beginning of June the Allies should possess a superiority iiv numbers, that being facilitated by the higher rate of wastage on the side of the whose tradition of warfare favored extravagance in lioth men and munitions for the sake of rjvpV c |: i'i| in--I. Mr. r.clloe relied mainly on the prospect of an actual superiority in the field, as he did. not attach so much importance to the blockade of (!crlnau commerce, except as to munitions, while tiie chance of the Allies or' ep,ipping the great reserves of BussU was, he considered, a factor in their favor., On these grounds Mr. Belloe considered that: the early summer would be a criti-

cal moment, for by that tinio the British contingent would be for tlio mo.it part equipped and in the field, the icebound porta of Russia would be free, anl possibly the Dardanelles would be opened. He did not, however, take into account the difficulty experienced by Bri-. tain over ammunition supplies, a detail that practically governed the' situation, nor does lie appear to have gauged the strenuous resistance of Turkey. In his opinion the beginning of June would allow a correct estimate to be obtained ' as to the way the war was going—in other words, the critical moment would have appeared. Its rightly considers that the Allies' plan in the west was simply one of attrition —wearing down the German lines —for what we gained ■n ground did not matter beside tile proportion of men who were put out of action. As to the eastern campaign, Mr. Bclloc considered that one of two things must happen. UMesa by the capture of Warsaw the Germans could bring great reinforcements from the west either their lino must break, or, much more probably, they would be compelled to shorten it, which meant their falling back for 120 to 200 miles in face of very liard pressure, with the chance of being able to form the line again, That practically is the position to-day, and the desperate struggle that has been going on for some time lately proves that Germany is aware that it is now or never she must succeed in her aim. Russia is equally' determined, and with enormous reserves behind the fighting line she should be able to take advantage of a favorable opportunity and strike a decisive blow that will put Germany on the defensive until hostilities cease.