THE GENERAL ELECTIONS.

Taranaki Daily News, Volume XLVII, Issue 7995, 6 December 1905, Page 3

THE GENERAL ELECTIONS.

I FORECAST FROM OTAGO. (From Our Special—By Tok-graph.) IUXEMX, Dec. 5. There is no doubt that the Preniter's visit to thd South and his stirring addresses .have had the effect of hardening up the Ministerial fol lowing- It only ncodul that Mr Setldon should have spoken in Dunvdin on the eve of battle, as was his desire, to have made his si uthern can. paign noteworthy, and a r-n'iplele success- Up to Saturday he was extremely hopeful that he might have addressed a mass meeting in thu Garrison! Hall or ithc Princess, but Mr Millar was so determined to win Dunedin Central off his own </it that the idea bad to be abandoned. It is understood that both Mr A mold and Mr Barclay .were crnUnt_tohavo cried ofl their engagements for thii evening, but as the programme could not be carried out Mr Seddon betook himself to Port Chalmers, where no assistance was needed, since Mr E. Allen is confident of' winning- by a elsar margin ; but even there a spirit ol mischief was abroad, and Mr Oibb, whom it will -take alii his tmw to save his deposit, tried to be i lever by holding the fort to-jright in the Only two available halls in the main borough. The Mayor of Tort Chalmcrsj however, was equal Ic the occasion, and promptly commandeered the railway sheds, which arc lighted by electricity, and can ItoM nearly 2500 people. There the Premier addressed one of the largest ami most enthusiastic political gatherings ever held in the port, hut the echoes of that greafj meeting will not penetrate into the far corners of Imne<Bn Xorth or Central as a Harrison Hall speech might lie expected to have done."" The Ministerialists are «7tiguinc cf capturing the,three city seats, and even Mr Barclay's friends are now "cccVy." There is no doubt that the voucher business awl the tactics of thc.Xcw LH.vrals have done Jir Pe;!f-.ird much harm, but the indications of dtcoirtiirtywc ml apparenlly sufficiently strone to discount the solid backing if Prohibitionists and church,' followers ami sectional adherents', who havs swarmed round _hun en all h's platfnrn-s. added to "which is the heavy Opposition vote, which baa »lways been located in 'the best residential arco in Bumvlin. If fhe Labour-Liberal clement in Xorth liin*lin asserts itself in Its full t>trcn%th en Wednesday, Mr Barclay must win. However, many persons. Womcn.cspectally, retrain from voting because dissatisfied with the choice cf candidates offered to them. Mr Bedford will be welconml in lhineilin Central. Though the Prohibitionists are making this contest a real test of strength against "the trade," I 'aney when the numters go up the work done by Mr 'Millar, and the} favour with which the commercial classes regard him will be potent factors in securing Us mum, thosch it will be by a narrow majority. That Ih re is <o re u.mmiiv of disaffection agaiavt Mr Arnold admits of no question, but 't ;s difficult to trace its origin. He has been a steadfast upholder of Liberal-labour principles, and therefore stands well with the I'nicnists, but the Prohibitionists are disaffected because he has not attended nor countenanced theii "ralKcs." On the other hand, "the Trade." which is strong In this part pf the city, may be depended on to gfvc him a compensatory vote. Two of the easiest .seats are Caversham lor Mr flidey and Taieri for Mr Rcid. whose personal popularity Is undiminished. For Bruce, Mr Allen will retain Ms scat,.trot. Mr Mason has been making substantial headway

during the wcekf and but< for his single tax proclivities would -have made !1 ilinifjjlW»nt il ' Tlr-r and his treno} towards Socialism pure and un- I dilated are the fcetc* no.Tes. of the small farmer at Clutba. IT" probabilities are that Mr Daniel Stewart will Just win on the post from Mr : Malcolm -Jltith ore Prohilitionists. but the latter is the more pronounc- ' pd. and If returned wouW the a do- j irotcd lofiower of Mr Tommy Taylor. ' being m !»«:* after his own lienrt. The purehaie oh the <T>do«v»:e Estate, and the retention in 'he fob! ' of Mr Hoy, who will toko n number ' of fanners'. votts frnm'jl* Malcolm. will be,fact<vs in the determination of the contcs\. At Tuapeka Mr Dennett's positiotf is generally acknow. (edged to be abs. lately safe, and the Eomoiencctnent of tie Ijowrence-Rox-burg railway will increase his majority of 6d three yefts ago te between 200 and 300. It-ports to hand my Umt Mr RUfedder i;:ts a strong backing m and arcund Cromwell, hut Mr Frascr's majority will come from the takes and liiversdale ends of the constituency, which remain staunch. Mr 8. McKevie should have a substantial majority for Waikouaiti, and the Minister of Lands should have no difficulty in defeating Mr Mitchell. The contest around -which genuine interest 'is! concentrated is in Mount Ida. concerning which most conflictJag'reports are in circulation, but a careful analysis of anticipations warrants me In saying that the key of the position Is held on the side or the range between the Kakanuis and Kaaeby-. Omakau,! Blacks, Chatto, and the districts which are crying out <or onlodSng the lands will rally ta Mr MePherson on account of the OoTcroment taking over the Dlack«itone Hill run. Sascby anil the Maniototo Plain swear by Mr Herd man. Ti»o candidate who poll" heaviest *» «*• around Dumtroon will asaoredly get the seat. One reliable estimate (shown Jme gives Mr Mcrterson » majority of 1.1". Another gives Mr Herdman a majority of 60. I expect' the Ministerial candidate to win because there is a strong undcrcurrent that Mr .MePherson personifies Liberalism, and that close settlement means doing for Xaseby what It has accomplished 'or Oamaru. The No-license campaign is in full swing, ami is productive of some di--greo of bitterness. The Prohibitionists held great meetings yesterday. and to-night have outdoor rallies in front of the Town Hall, while the "Trade's" representative is holding /orth at the Princess. The latter is /teemed ol unauthorised ami unwsiv rantftMe use of the names of eminent divines ol the Presbyterian Church, to which he himself tiebmgs, ami misehicf is brewing on that account. Open-air meetings are to be the order to-night, and to-morrow, ami a novelty is to be furnished hi the shape of a mass meeting of women, at which the possibility of/'revolalions" is vaguely hinted at. It Is greatly regrettable that polling day was not a wfck earlier, and the atmosphere is decidedly electric at present, and an explosion may take place'at any mo; newspapers have strong articles; calling on the sr-ts-r sense mod calm judgment of the | ommuinty to assert themselves and prevent serious financial disaster and .inn.tunc dislocation. Prohibitionists are sanguine of victory, hut though I exp.<-t reduction to be carried I do not anticipate the top line to be struck out

to thn.extent it was three years nj,">|J the contrary should happen. then it gtxa without Fayi?tg that the fc.rccs that can (accomplish such .- sesult nrotit be fluccestrful n electing Messrs Ailanw »ml who are the chief "saponent* <>' ,h< " extreme temperance nation. That Prohibition vill be carried in Ilnice. Port Chalmers. WoiKoualti. nnd Oamaru is generally aeknoulrdße I ns highly prolmhle. The Caversht'in. .Ta'n-ri, and Tuapeka electorates are .-xperted to decide |in favour of riintiniinnre. hit the trade will win by very narrow majorities in Taieri ami Tim-

■———■—■———m——npgai THE PATBA SEAT. Patea is rather an open question. Mr Symes, the Government candidate, was handicapped by the long session, which prevented tho opening of his campaign until Mr J. ». Hine /the Opposition candidate) had traversed ihe whole electorate, preach ing his political doctrine. Mr Hine i.i a highly respected Toko farmer, who has done service on loe.il bodies in Stratford, and will secure the Conservative veto. He is a Xo-license advocate, as is Mr G. P. Wake, the Inde[ieiidcnt Liberal candidate. On the platform Mr Wake has the heels of the other two, speaking in a most convincing style, as though a political campaign were only nn ordinary part of his existence. His criticisms on tho present Government stamp him as a clever and out-and-out Oppositionist, though he will net pledge himself to any party. Opinions are evenly divided as to the chances of Messrs Symes and Hine. Mr Symes beat Mr Haselden at last I election by about 400 votes, 'but if he is'i elected this ha jwill have I very 'cw to spare. THE HAWEfIA SEAT. I The triangular contest in the Hawera electorate) has been fought on lines that have at t mis been somewhat personal, with tho result that I sonic unfortunate things have been I said that were better left unsaid Three years ago there was a straSglbt out lissue between Government and Opposition, Mr Major narrowly defeating the sitting member, Mr F. McGuire, wiro had for 12 years held the seat as an opponent of the Government. The same men are aspirants for .Parliamentary honours again, but this time there is a disturbing element in Mr B. ('.. Robbins, a straight-out Oppositionist and a Prohibitionist. The three candidates were before the electors nine years ago, when Mr Robbing puti up a big fight, and there are many who expect to see him top the poll this time. He is bound to secure a fairly large town and Prohibition vot», Mr McGuirc's friends are equally confident, and predict an easy victory. Mr McGuire has the support of tho farming community to a very largo, extent, and trusts to Mr Rabbins to weaJiin Mr Major's big majority in JCawera, which majority unseated the Opposit member three years ago. Mr Major is not a weak man b.v any means, and tho fact o{ his being the Government nominee will tell greatly in his favour. To win, however, he will need a big lift from the town of Hawera. THE TAHAXAKI SEAT. We refer to the Taranaki seat in our Uading columns.