Prospective Prices for Wheat.

Te Aroha News, Volume VI, Issue 361, 20 April 1889, Page 3

Prospective Prices for Wheat.

The probable value of wheat during the nekt six. months is naturally an important question to all our wheat-growers who are notlorcod by financial pressure to make" immediate sales After carefully considering surrounding circumstances mo should strongly advise all who can wait not to part with their wheat hurriedly this season. It may be true that in the English markets the pride of wheat will not be so high as was at one time anticipated, owing to the partial" failure of crop* in many parts of Europe, including England. At the same time, notwithstanding the low price of wheat still prevailing in England up to lalost advice*, thtie are not wanting strong grounds for the opinion held by good authoribio3 that, as Ihespringadvances, there is very likoly to bo a sudden and creak rise in the value of wheat in English markets. A thoughtful article appeared in the Colonies and India for September 12th of last ye ir, by W. J. Hands, F.S.S., in which : the writer goes exhaustively into figuiea to prove that never wos it more likely that a "corner" .in wheat would be successful than some time in the first half of 1889. He admits the fact that up to the end of August, when he was writing, notwithstanding the tact that the British wheat crop of serviceable grain last season only amounted to 6,000,000 quarters, to provide for consumptive requirements of 26,000,000 quarters, yet there had beon no adequate rise in prices. Men's minds, he aiguea, areso used to a plethora of wheat in Great Britain, ov/ing to the enormous importation from foreign countries, that they refuse to believe in scarcity or high prices. "That," he says, "is all the more reason why they are likely to come. For the moment the price of wheat is remarkably low — not so low, of course, ! by many shillings as a few weeks since, j but lower than the cost of production in this country (United Kingdom). Men's minds are not prepared at present for any great rise. The last months of the year ate ne\er the period of active speculation in wheat, and statistical prophecies are as a rule disbelieve 1 :!. When the spring comes the American ring-makers ri&e to the surface. They rise up, and thus far we have been thankful to see them generally fall down. We can count upon our fingeis the ' coiners ' of partial success ; it would be much more diificult to count the disastrous failures'. There has always, thus far, been a larger quantity of the article ' cornered ' than the operators deemed possible. . . . . . Wheat is not like copper or tin. The year always increases the mouths that want food, and the quantity produced is limited to what the earth gives. A ' corner ' will one day be successful in wheat. The writer trusts he will not be considered unpatriotic in saying it is likely to be accomplished in the first half of 1889." In support of his views this writer points out that the Vienna Congress of Statisticians has estimated the total wheat deficit ot Europe in 1888 at 15i per cent. He calculates that, after allowing for the good crops of Russia, Roumania and Turkey, and the probable excess of Supply from non-European countries over that for 1887, the actual European deficiency may be pet down at 16,000,000 quarters. This calculation is based upon a presumed deficiency in the flour-making properties of last season's crop in certain countries equivalent to 20 per cent. But estimating this inferiority in the grain at only 15 per cent., and allowing stocks of old wheat left over in the importing countries of 5,000,000 quarters, there is still left a deficiency of 11,500,000 quarters. But even this is reckoning that the exports from Australasia will exceed those of last yeai by2,000,000 quarters, which we now know cannot possibly be the case. It is thus seen how strong are the reasons for anticipating a considerable rise in prices in European markets, and how great are the opportunities for Ameiican " cornering " rings to work their gambling operations successfully. Coming nearer home, we have to contemplate the fact, stated on the authority of the New South Wales Government statist, Mr Coghlan, that while the requirements of that colony are 8,100,000 bushels, the yield this year has only been 1,540,000 bushels, leaving a deficiency of 6,560,000 bushels, against which there is only an estimated surplus for export in Victoria and South Australia of 4 600,000 bushels. Upon this presumed surplus Queensland, where there is also a deficiency, will have to draw as well as New South Wales. Under these circumstances it is admitted that Australia " will have to look to New Zealand and probably to America "to supply her wants. Looking at, the current prices of wheat in Melbourne and Sydney at the present writing, we note thiit the quotations in 'Melbourne are only a halfpenny per bushel lower than in Sydney, the prices being 5s s£d in the former city and 5s 6d in the latter. This email "difference feems hard to account for if it be true that Victoria is in a position to export to iNew South Wale*. However, speculative purchases may in fomo measure account for this faefc. With regard to Ameiican competition with NewZoalandin the Australian markets, we do not think it i& likely to injuie us much, especially if there is any great ri«e in the European markets, such as the writer in the Colonies and India deoms probable. In 1887 the same writer predicted prices for wheat lower than any on recoid since the value of gold has been what it is. Thei c was at the time much discussion and difference of opinion as tn the correctness of his conclusions, but his predictions were verified, for prices went down to a point lower than at any previous period within the memory of three generations. It is>, therefore, as well to pay thought ul heed to his opinions. On the whole, then, we would caution New Zealand wheat growers against hasty sales of thsir crops. It can do no possible harm towaitalittle, especially as local millers are said to have declared, when asked for an offer, that they are nob anxious to buy at present. The only drawback to keeping wheat is the risk of loss by rats or fire where there are no facilities for safe storage. Surely there is room for profitable co-operation among&b farmers in the erection of fire and rat-proof granaries. [Since the foregoing was written, the official statistics of the Victorian wheat yield have been published, shoeing that the total yield of wheat for the colony has been 8,633,000 bushels, averaging 7'll bushels per acre. The total yield last year was 13,328,000 bushels, with an average of 10 - 81 bushels per acre. The acreage under wheat is slightly over 18,000 more than last year. There is an apparent surplus for export of 1,376,000 bushels. The estimated surplus in South Australia for export is. we are told, 2,334,000; therefore the total surplus for export in the two colonies named is only 3,710,000 bushels, or 890,000 bushels less than was at first estimated, making the total Australian deficiency 2,850,000 bushels, without reckoning what the Queensland deficiency may be.] The London Metropolitian Board of Wot ks proposes to spend nearly £400,000 in widening three thoroughfares of secondaiy importance Quick-firing Armstrong guns, 36 and 100pounders, discharging ten and eleven shots a minute, have been finally adopted by the British army.