GERMANY AND PEACE.

Taihape Daily Times, Volume 8, Issue 16, 20 January 1916, Page 3

GERMANY AND PEACE.

MORE WARFARE SPELLS RUIN. INDUSTRIAL DISASTER THREATENS. (By J. W. T. Mason, New York correspondent of the Daily Express). It is said that distant n-autrals see more clearly what is occurring among the belligerent nations of Europe than do the belligerents themselves. If this is true, then Germany and AustriaHungary are approaching the limits of their offensive strength, and are urgently in need of a quick peace.

That is the view of the situation now generally prevalent in America. The opinion is based on many sources of information which .have been tapped by newspaper correspondents in the Central Empires, and on the privately expressed judgment of Germans in the United States. More than ever Americans believe the Teutonic Powers cannot win the war. Tlfe strain of the conflict is unquestionably growing greater in Germany, as Americans see the results of the war, than in Great Britain and France. There is scarcely any one in America not of Teutonic origin who thinks Germany can' outlast the Western Allies in a trial of endurance.

I TO AVERT DISASTER. I It is not the opinion of many American judges, however, that Germany will cqllhpso suddenly and fly to pieces. A far greater strain than is at present prevalent can probably be borne by the Germans, but in the bearing there will be more injury done to Germany's industrial future than to Great Britain's. It is this fact which causes so many Americans of sound judgment to believe the Germans are. more willing to accept peace now than at any other time since the war began. There are indications, too, that German statesmen are beginning to recover impartial points of view, and are now advising the Kaiser, with all the calmness of laboratory experimenters, that a prolonged war must be disastrous for Germany.

The overthrow of von Tirpitz—and Americans believe that von Tirpitz is no longer influential at Court —is interpreted as marking the lu ginning of a restored sanity to the German Government. Instead of continuing the policy of a lowered head, blinded eyes," and wild fisticuffs in the air, the Germans are now bringing the cold reason to bear on the future of the war; if indications which reach America from Berlin are to be believed. The seriousness to Germany of continuing the present conflict so that it may become an interminable and ruthless war, with exhaustion as its aim, is beginning to be realised by the Kaiser.

It is believed to be highly significant that after 15 months of warfare Count Tisza, the Hungarian Premier, should give an interview for American readers, in which the claim is made that Hungary is fighting only a defensive Avar. The view of Budapest has been closely followed by American observers from the time

earlier in the war when Count Tiszr personally delivered an ultimatum to the Kaiser (as the story reached America , and compelled the dispatch. of German troops to the Carpathians to ensure protection for Hungary.

EXHAUSTION. Count Tis/.a is believed by American diplomats to be the most astute and far-reaching statesman in the Central Empires. His insistence that the Teutons are still doing no more than defending themselves is thought to mean that he does not believe it is possible for the Germanic Powers to gain the fruits of an offensive victory.

. The internal situation in AustriaHungary is thought by Americans to be much worse than in Germany. Tire exhaustion which the war is beginning to ~'. i ave in the Dual Monarchy is related in many private letters that have been received in America.

It is apparent from these communications that the Austro-Hungarians do not believe they can obtain any positive advantages from the Avar at all comparable to the sacrifices which the conflict has demanded of them. The full power of Austria-Hungary's influence, therefore, can be counted on, as Americans see the present conditions of the war, to be exerted in favour of a defensive peace. Germany, it is believed, must be feeling the pressure of this influence, especially from Budapesth, and must prepare for its exertion in constantly increasing volume. Count Tisza, it is believed at Washington, is the one persrv, in the Central Powers wholly fearless in. the presence of the German Emperor, and quite capable of browbeating that monarch if conditions warrant such a course. The Kaiser, therefore, cannot be in the dark concerning his ally's point of view. •

BRITISH BLOCKADE. Germany, therefore, is not being encouraged to stay in the war for purposes of gain, and Germany's own interests are pointing in the same direction. If the war (nters on a stage of exhaustion, the Germans must acknowledge their defeat, say Americans, for, however severely Europe as a whole would feel a conflict carried to the bitter end, the Germans would lose the most, proportionately to what they have to lose. Two reasons, in American opinion, count for this. First, the effective blockade of Germany by the British Fleet is capable of crushing German industries beyond hope of a quick recovery, if the war continues indefinitely, because of the famine in raw mate-rials that must result. Secondly, the German casualties are probably five times as great as Britain 's.

If the Germans continue for long to lose so many more men than the British, there will be no virile manhood left in Germany at the end of the conflict capable of challenging Great Britain's industrial and commercial' preeminence. The Germans, therefore, must bring the Avar to an end quickly if they are to preserve the lives of their males for the trade contest that is to folloAv in the coming days of peace.

Every examination that Americans

make of the European situation leads thus to the same conclusion: Germany cannot afford to continue the Struggb for what Prince Billow lias called a "proud peace."