FORECASTING

Sun (Auckland), Volume III, Issue 927, 21 March 1930, Page 10

FORECASTING

Sir, — “Sunny Jim” in The Sun of the 18th very rightly calls me to account for apparent faults in my weather forecast. He misquotes me slightly, however, and he does not notice that I have already undertaken to explain. Any remarks I may make now upon this portion of my forecast will with advantage shorten that promised planationHowever perfect my theories may be, I make no claim to infallibility in the application of them, and I would beg your readers to bear in mind that I always lack the needful instruments, data and leisure for forecasting of any kind: the wonder is that I am so often right. But, I must accept responsibility for all I say, and my letter in The Sun of February 11 concluded with the words: “As for events nowimpending, I predicted months ago, and I have already told The Sun that some factors indicated a pronounced break in the weather about February II or 12, the weather then remaining rather unsettled till late in March, and being specially disturbed about March 4 and 5. Further mining explosions are likely, and a period of earthquakes and volcanic disturbances, more particularly about the dates mentioned.” Very soon I shall explain the “some factors,” and give a detailed list of reported events of the kinds specified. In the meantime let rce confess that so far as purely local weather for Auckland —or even New Zealand—■was concerned, I knew nothing, except that solar disturbances, which I happened to have previously observed, and the influence of Neptune (in opposition on February 21) were almost certain to upset our weather about February 12. But, I expected such conditions, at this stage of the sun’s variation, to continue to disturb the world’s weather for some weeks, particularly (as I shall explain) about March 4 and 5, and I assumed that New Zealand would share this later weather. Locally the barometer began to fall

on February 11, and the weather for 16 days following justified my expectations. Again, from March 4 to 6 the barometer fell considerably, and the wind increased, but no rain fell here. Otherwise, the height of the barometer has continued very abnormal, the weather remarkably calm and dry, the upper air currents moving slowly in different directions. While such strangely mild conditions prevailed here—right up till the equinox—the cable messages continued to tell us of an unusual series of blizzards, heat waves, hurricanes, floods, whirlwinds and wireless hindrances in widelysparated parts of the world; and the worst part of the period, including the floods in France, gales in the Antarctic and blizzard in Japan, was at March 4 and 5. Still, I readily admit my mistakes—and I learn from them. F. R. FIELD.