“Optimism—But Not Ecstasy”

Sun (Auckland), Volume I, Issue 159, 26 September 1927, Page 12

“Optimism—But Not Ecstasy”

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DR. BELSHAW’S WARNING “DON’T shout before we are out of the wood.” This warning was sounded by Professor H. Belshaw, in the course of his lecture at the Leys Institute on Saturday evening. “General conditions give grounds for a mild optimism.” he said, speaking on “New Zealand’s Economic Outlook— Have We Turned the Corner?” But lie deprecated any ecstasy. Conditions were always at their worst and unemployment; at its highest in the winter, with a brightening in spring and sumFAVOURABLE SIGNS There appeared to be a tendency for prices in England to rise. This might be seasonal but the fall in the Bank of England rate suggested an easing of credit. “I think that prices will rise a little,” said Dr. Belshaw, “but I would not like to stake my reputation on it.” The next returns would probably show that the excess of imports over exports had been overtaken. Another indication of a definite move toward recovery was the fall in the ratio of advances to deposits. In the next 10 to 20 years the industrial condition of the United Kingdom would probably improve gradually with only temporary set-backs. But this would not necessarily mean an increased prosperity for New Zealand, but increased competition in primary markets from Siberia, and the Argentine. Denmark and Holland, Dr. Belshaw pointed out. had no room for dairying expansion, but Siberia had great possibilities with an improvement in mechanical methods. This New Zealand could best meet with an improvement in methods of production. The majority of economists believed that world prices in the next 10 years would gradually fall. Immigration would not permanently affect employment in the Dominion. The lecturer placed little faith in the development of secondary industry, believing that the absorption of immigrants could best be brought about by some land-settlement plan.