POLITICAL

Stratford Evening Post, Volume XXXVI, Issue 87, 16 August 1913, Page 2

POLITICAL

SIR JOSEPH WARD’S POSITION. A Wellington correspondent writes; —Will Sir Joseph Ward accept the leadership of the Opposition ? That is the question of the day and moment. Sir Joseph was certainly prepared to lo so before ho left for England, provided the Liberals in the House agreed sink their differences and to present a united front to the Massey Government. But rumour—many ;ongued—has it that Sir Joseph is ly no mean? satisfied with the posiion of affairs, nor with the attitude >t the party itself. The greater lumber of member* supporting the Jpposition Party would, of course, aail with delight Sir Joseph Ward’s return to the leadership. Certain recalcitrant Liberals, who are report'd to be unwilling to again accept his .oadership, have, however, to be •eckoned with. Included in the numier are at least two, if not three south Island members, and then there ire the five Labour representatives o be reckoned with. On a test diviion, the votes of four out of the five if the latter would be almost certainy cast against the present Governuent. But could Sir, Joseph depend ipon their votes when he had turn’d the Government out, assuming that e is in a position to do so, which is nore than doubtful. The “tail” of the ’arty—the Labour section—contains he sting. It constitutes the real anger with which present-day Liberlism has to reckon. The Labour secion is dominated by the “Bed Feds,” nd the “Red Feds” aspire to domxate the Liberals. Their support an only he assured by the adoption f their programme. Sir Joseph Ward understands this. Hence, probably, is “aloofness.”

Certainly,, Sir Joseph Ward is in o hurry to disclose his hand. Neither b any of the public receptions acorded him, nor in the House, or elsewhere, has he said anything to lead eople to believe that he w ill accept he vacant leadership. But as it is ecognised that without him the Party rust continue to go down, strenuous (torts are being made by the Opposi:on members to enlist the sympathy nd support of more than one Inde'endent member of the House, and of n© or two of the more radical snporters of the Massey Government, t is pointed out that the Government has actually only a very small ia|ority. There were 88 members ' oturned fUi supporters of Mr Massey nd the Reform ( Party, Mu’ Wilkin•on’s election for Egmoni, in (he place u the Hon. Titos. Mackenzie, gave the n’artyi an additional vote. That made '9. Then there were tjie three Lihral freeholders-—Mr Gordon’ Coat-eft, Jr T. W. Rhodes, and Mr V. ‘H■' teed—who supported Mr Massey Jn lis “no-oonfideuce” motion against oha Mackenzie Administration. T hese gentle men brought the btyength of he Government party'up to 42, and, vith the late Speaker in the chair, 13 votes were accounted for, leaving mly 87 that could possibly be record;(ij against the Administration. . The tositios is somewhat different now, or, with Sir Arthur Guinness ’gone, he Hon. F. W. Lang (a Reform Party nan) in the chair, and Mr P. C. Webb illicg the seat'for the Grey, the marin of votes in the Government’s favour is. presumably reduced to three ; fence the anxiety with which attempts .ire being made to alienate the support J the Independents; -But all the obhying and wire-pulling that is goijg on is not likely (o affect a single Government vote, and, as already unted, there are two or. three men m the Opposition side of the House .rho will vote against Sir Joseph Ward m every occasion.-- This, although a io-confideuce motion may be sprung tpon the House at any time during he debate on the Financial Statenent, there is very little, if any, pros>ect of the Government’s position beng successfully assailed.

Another factor which has to be lackoned with in determining the rotes of members on a no-confidence notion, is the possible dissolution of he House, and an appeal to the country, as the outcome of an adverse rote. If the House were sent to the country td-morrow, many present nembers would inevitably lose their ieats, the member for Avon amongst hem. While it is by no means certain that the Reform party candidate, vould unseat Mr Russell, it is an open secret that the Prohibitionists will run a candidate against him; and as the latter wil also stand in the Liberal interest, the splitting of votes is more than likely to lead to Mr Russell’s undoing.' This much has to be said, however, in Mr Russell’s favour. Personal considerations are not likely to affect his vote in a no-confidence motion. But there are other members on the Opposition side whose seats are equally shaky; and, knowing the consequences, they are likely to think seriously, before placing the Government in the position in which their only alternative would bean appeal to the country. And thus, although the Opposition is endeavouring to work up a political crisis, it is hardly likely, if it occurs, to be of serious magnitude. The debate on the Financial Statement is nevertheless likely to be protracted, but it should leave the Government unscathed.