OUR VIEW

Ruapehu Bulletin, Volume 6, Issue 290, 13 June 1989, Page 8

OUR VIEW

by

Robert

Milne

Mention the dreaded "Greenhouse Effect Theory" around a ski area like Ruapehu a while ago and it was like talking about death - people shuddered and shut up, or talked frantically and nervously about what was going to happen to the ski industry. Since the May snowfall people are joyously talking about how the scientists were dreaming. If you look at the original articles on the theory the scientists in question are predicting a warming of the earth's atmosphere, due to the depletion of the Ozone Layer and the increase in the so-called greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. But what many people seem to have forgotten during the past two bad ski seasons, is that the predictions were for the warming to show within about 20 years. They are not expecting the effect to show today. Many skifield operators have been desperately trying to reassure people that the past seasons are no more than one would expect from normal cycliC fluctuations. Skifield managers believe that the two recent bad seasons easily fit into "normal" weather pattems, a view that weather experts support. What is not correct is the "bandwagoning" that many people seem to be involved in. First, hoards of ski related people jumped on the "Greenhouse Effect" bandwagon, blaming all their woes on the evils of industrial society. Now it seems hoards are leaping off the bandwagon, scoffing at scientists and claiming the Greenhouse Effect is a load of rubbish. The facts remain: weather pattems are never constant; the Ozone Layer is being depleted; and greenhouse gases continue to be pumped into the atmosphere. Whether the last two factors are going to lead to the Greenhouse Effect Theory becoming a reality we may not know for sure for possibly 50 years, unless we give the scientists the chance to study the facts more thoroughly and hone their predictions.