MOTOR TRADE

Rotorua Morning Post, Volume 1, Issue 52, 23 October 1931, Page 6

MOTOR TRADE

RECOVERY PROSPECTS. | WARNING TO DEALERS. In warning motor dealers in New Zealand to approach the coming year cautiously and to err on the side of understocking until conditions have stabilised, the official organ of the New Zealand Motor Trade" Association adds: — "We believe the struggle is well worth while, as the motor I business has a bright future and will I be among the foremost to recover and forge ahead." The journal remarks that car saies for the eurrent year are unlikely to reach half the figures recorded in 1930. The review continues. — "The present ratio of motor vehicles (excluding motor cycles) to popu1 lation in New Zealand is one to eight I people. This ratio is likely to increase as motor transport is developed, and with the normal inerease of population the new market for motor I vehicles in considerable quantities is likely to be assured for many years to come. The replaeement market of motor vehicles worn out or destroyed has not yet reached large dimensions in New Zealand, but is likely to do so in the near future. Since 1925, the number I of ears struck off the register is 19,154, but another 29,000 have not been relicensed, a large pereentage of which must be regarded as finished." It is pointed out to dealers that apart from the creating of new motor users, there is promise in the . market for cars to replace the thousands now running as they wear out. | Average Life Eight Years. The article continues; — "The average life of a motor-car in New ZeaI land has been a moot point up to the present, as no reliable data have been available. Since 1925 aecurate figures have been kept, and it is now possible to make an estimate somewhat near the mark. If 10,000 of the dormant licenses are revived the number of cancellations would be about 3-8,000, which would absorb all motor-ears imported previous to 1923, and the average life would work out at about eight years. "Working on this basis, the number of motor-ears replaced in 1930 would be 3000, and in the present year 3500. These numbers are comparatively small, as the number of cars in use in 1922 was less than a quarter what it is to-day. In 1923 motor transport took a big forward move, and saies of cars jumped from 3474 in 1922 to 12,357. This inerease has been maintained each year right up to the end of 1930. If the average life

of a car is correctly estimated at eight years, the replaeement business for next year should be over 12,000 cars, and this figure should be maintained and increased over a number of years if the present ratio of cars to population is. maintained. "Under present conditions, only a small proportion of the number will be replaced, but this means only a postponement of the business until conditions are normal. The longer replaeement is delayed, the larger must be the replaeement market, and this applies to other sections of the motor business."