TIME JUSTIFIES KTICHENER'S PROPHECY OF THREE YEARS' WAR.

Pukekohe & Waiuku Times, Volume 5, Issue 229, 24 November 1916, Page 6 (Supplement)

TIME JUSTIFIES KTICHENER'S PROPHECY OF THREE YEARS' WAR.

By J. L. GARVIN (Editor of the London "Observer.") London, Sept. 16. Judgment has been called the rarest of human qualities and a good timesense of rarest faculty of judgment. To follow the constant changes of opinion with regard to the length of the war would be a very remarkable inquiry, and the most interesting part of it would relate to the last few months. By the light of events forecasts ar* constantly revised. They probably come closer to the truth with each r<> visiou.

J li<- mood in which the matter is re- ' girded has of course altered. Th; former anxiety has passed. Keen curiosity lias succeeded. It is an ingenious exercise of the brain; the factors are so many and the different possibilities of their interworknig countless. l The main question we have come to is whether Lord Kitchener's famous estimate will lie rather under than over the mark. On this point there is end less table-talk, and British opinion may like to know how the discussion brings out the irony and humour of this epoi-h of terrors. Many prophets can foretell the coming event, but few its exact date. Many can predict the issue of a vns*„ process, but few its duration. Most, distinguished soldiers, diplomats, and statesmen in all countries concerned have been no wiser than tha crowd. As late as last May there was a sombre Assumption among eminent personages that the struggle must last four years, perhaps more. .Some of the same personages expected, a few Aveeks later, that the thing would l)e well over by the end of this autumn. There began to run an odd story which had a popular vogue. Lord Kitchener, a great hunter of bric-a-brac, found his recreation, as you know, : n fitting out with much on.re Broome Hall, which he had bought from an old family. Just before be was drowned he was bargaining for a vase. The dealer, defending his price, bewailed the hardness of the times and the long vista of gloom for all ministers to luxury. The then War Secretary was said to have remarked that he had changed his view; the struggle would be over in three months. In the circumstances, it was the most obvious of little jests, but it ran among the people lute a superstition after the founder of the new annies met so weird a fate. BRUSSILOFFS LITTLE SURPRISE Apart from this, after Brussiloff'd first surprising achievement at the beginning of June —I have told you that if it overturned all German calculations the enemy may be excused, sinco it was quite as astonishing to the A! lies and to the Russians themselves - there were very wide differences of mil. itary opinion upon the prospects of ths general offensive. The differences wero inevitable. So many factors in the equation were yet unknown. Plans had beeu elaborately drawn on paper. Behind the Western front rehearsals had been pretty thorough. But the fighting quality of the British new armies had yet to be tested. Whatever might seem to be the theoretical merit of the new artillery meth ods and infantry tactics, only the handling of guns and men in action against an enemy fighting for his life could give the necessary experience and clear up the problem. On the other side of Europe, Brussiloff in one season might bring Austria to the grond and prepare a debacle for Hindenburg. As to the Allies in the West, ther» were most extraordinary divergences e l ' anticipation. At the beginning of July there were still some almost incurable pessimists even among well informed. They thought the " big push" was premature; that it would be a very bloody failure; that it ought not to be attempted until next spring, when a stupendous mass of artillery would be accumulated and other arrangements and re-arrangements would be pefectBut this was the view of a small minority. There were more of the well informed who were convinced that the •'big push" would drive ahead and briii" about something like a German collapse in the West during the present autumn. . There were intermediate minds which were convinced that, barring miracles, the Allies from the beginning of last July would require for absolute victory another year and another campaign. These minds, both in England and I ranee, had usually been right before, and again they have proved most nearly right. Many <>f the factors which were doubtful when the general offensive begun are now accurately known. \ll the Allies find themselves to be even stronger and surer for all final purposes than they had ever hoped to lie. At the same time there is a* yet no swift mid magical solution for the stubborn difficulties of trench warfare. LOOKS rOR SURPRISES. So much has been learned that there may indeed be encouraging surprises 1 i think there will lie. 1 do not think that they will be decisive enough t" precpitate a- conclusion of' the war much before the third anniversary of its declaration. But as soon as one < makes any measured admission of this i kind the seizes upon it nncl protests tint the war will last another two years. There is no reasoned basis ( whatever for such an estimate. H ' (ouid onlv come right by accident, o,w- >' t:ig t i causes not at prc-ent calculable I Itv any >">b. r intellect. ' ' [f theiv i- an end to the three < n-r 'itlis' theory so vividly entertainvl I by many in L union last June and later, I there : s more and more adhesion to the f vh w that the struggle will be complete- * (v unit at earliest by the middle of next <umnier ••nil at furthe.-t by the close I of next year. _ 1 Til his estimates of t me Lord Kit- a ' for all his strong limitations n < •oem other respects, seemed to have n I \ peculiar sagacity in his bones. He j v liked to give himself three years r r theieabouts for all his chief tasks. He I I :d required about three years for the li sma-hing of the Mjihdi and the ret-on- e qne.-t of' the Soudan. He remembered li that the Boer War had lasted nearly o three years. A somewhat similar period had been required from his landing m India for the completion of his linliti'i v reforms. But iwhen he first said that a conflict « of this colossal and frightful character s would last three years he stood alon • p in Europe. Hum'an-feeling cried out o that it was intolerable. Political econ- (> omy said that it was impossible. _ One si year of war under modern conditions o is equal in expense and slaughter to o ten under the old conditions. To ,\ France especially the prospect seemed unthinkable, and Lord Kitchener's es- a timate gave wide offence across the y Channel in the autumn of 1011. The Germans scouted it with laughter. n It is more and more recognised vo tl have been a very memorable stroke o) h 1

judgment. Last year tire Russians came round to fuil belief in it. The Italians followed. Prance, under a more searching and lacerating ordeal, was more reluctant to admit the harsii necessity. But now French temperjment is facing the truth thoroughly. It is admitted across the Channel th'it Lord Kitchener in all human probability was very near the mark; perhaps marvellously near. We slia.ll see. KITCHENER DIDN' T CHANGE. Again and again other British sol diers, like most of their French coinpeers, had confident returns of belief that the Germans in the west were going to be broken in -three months There may hare been moments when Lord Kitchener himself was strongly tempted to alter his own original view, but he was always brought back to it Now it is finally adopted as the basis of all calculation.

bile driving the present campaign with all our might we are preparing busily for the next campaign. France is making ready for another winter fn the trenches and above all is reckoning for an increased output of munitions in terms of next year's requirements. Italy is doing the same. Russia Jong since decided to base her real hopes on the greater strength she will attain by the beginning of next year. Even were military factors alone to be taken into account, it would be finite unlikely that Germany could stand for another two years the increasing pressure. We must nev?f forget the working by land and sea of the collateral factors! As regards the food supply and .some other resources. Germany just scraped through this year by aid of assistance from the East. But long t>efore the end of another nine months that will be cut off from Germany.