THE DOOM OF GERMANY: ONE YEAR MORE.

Pukekohe & Waiuku Times, Volume 5, Issue 209, 15 September 1916, Page 2 (Supplement)

THE DOOM OF GERMANY: ONE YEAR MORE.

FACTS AND FIGURES BY A NEUTRAL The."New York World" publisl «*s from its London correspondent a remarkable statement by a neutral resident cf Rotterdam on the economic position and outlook of Germany. The despatch runs: — A neutral resident of Rotterdam, who speaks with complete up-to-date knowledge of the situation of Germany, has given to the "World" an impressive account of its econonrc situation at this moment and its prospects for next year. His statements ,are not based on conjecture, but on first-band knowledge and practically official data. " To comprehend Germany's econonrc position in the matter of food supply, present and prospective," be said, "you must divide the populat 011 into four classes. First there is the agricultural ciass of 20,000.(KX). These arc fed all right, because there is no scheme on earth that can prevent the class which nrses the food from having what it wants of it. There are probablv 1.5,000.000 others, including solidcs, ofhVals, end workers for military purposes, who must also be fed. They have the first mortgage on all the food eommandooed by the State. There are ".0(10.(1(11) rich, more or less, who can always buy food in any country so long as : t_is there. •'This leaves about 2.",,1100.000 of pop illation who have got to face the nre'sure. These consist of numbers of the industrial classes not working for the Government, the m'ddlo-classes, snopkoepers, and so forth. They are living 011 a ration equivalent to 2200 calorie 1 * per day. 2400 l)pim» the accepted and proved d : otetic minimum. On that life can be maintained, without any frills ether. The normal consumption of Great Britain is 1500 calories per day. ' How is it to be in the future* Last vear G.ermnnv had a poor cereal havest, about 1:1.000,000 tons. Thev imported 9,000.000 more from Him- . carv. and about 600.000 from Ronman. ia. Of the 13,000.000 the State got pos- ' session of about 9.000,000. which. w ; th imports, left the State about 19,000 000 ,

to ileal wjth. The balance remained with tho growers. The State provided i'reni this a broad ration of 22(10 calories per day, of whVli .'ill per cent, were potatoes. "'This year's harv.e»t looks l : ke being a good one. Sixteen m'lilon tons if cereals is the normal harvest, and although there lias been considerable damage, I reckon they will get 3.000.000 more than last year. But tali tis not the critical point. When Germany started this war shf- had 23,000,000 cattle, of which 5.2-10 000 arc needed for brooding, milch-cows hulls,etc., and then were about 6.000.000 calves. That leaves about ■ r >.2'Hi,o.;:) cattle for consumpt'on, of which, however, a largo proportion are two-Year-olds, and conso(|Uontly not .n full slaughter value. The pig position is stil! less favourable, as they have slaughtered an immense proportion of pigs owing to the shortage of fodder J'he situation, then, : s; They can go on for another 12 months, providing they kill everything except breeding stock and thus supply a dietetic minimum of the fat and protein without .which no human !>eing can exsit. •'After that the position they will have nerved at will be a total economic debacle. II you assume that they make peace ths year they would be in such a position that it would take them four years to restore the cattle supply to its n< rm.il and necessary number, and during that four years they would have to import Germany's total moat supply. There is not enough meat in the world for that, or anything like. it. The world was getting short of meat ev.on before the war. Thj|y will want ."..I'OO.OOO cattle and the equivalent ol ■4,000,000 pigs per annum for four years fro mabioad. So the intelligent Gorvnan is beginning to sit down and think over the prospect, and his thoughts turn to peace. ..Wat juices are bound tu -oar after the war, and Germany's requirements of 5,000,000 cattle and 3.000,000 pigs per annum will cost her landed, not less than £2O per head >» she could get them, which she can't. " Let us suppose she spreads her importations over eight years. Then she will haw to go w'thout half the minimum meat supply for those years. But suppose she could buy this meat in four years and pay for jt which is another stiff problem for her. could she find transport for it? It is impossible; there are not enough available ships.

"What about her industrial situation? Germany is dry of raw materials except of toys, aniline dyes, and soma drugs. These are the only th'.nss she can export at once after the war. Before she can manufacture anything Germany must get the raw material She has'no copper, lead, or other base materials needed for her iron and steel manufactures. She must import all those. She will absolutely require tft import 200,000 tons of manganese copper, zinc, and other things before she c«in start her manufactures in this department alone. It is the same with her textile trades. They have no wool, they can't get any cotton, and they can't make textiles until they import and pay for these raw materials. They can't pay untl they can export manufactures. That's what Germany is up against. If she could get peace with this coming harvest it would save her importing 5,000.000 tons of cereals, that is all. The other more insoluble problems will remain. If the war goes on for another \c-ai and then she makesi peace, Germany will be totally and ab. solutely smashed economically. The raw material she will require must iim into large sums —and where is she to get money or its equivalent in manufactured goods for export? •' From the military point she must collapse in a year from now, but even if she got peace to-morrow she would collapse economically alt the samo They want peace, they want it hard, but don't know how to get it. There is what we may call a fntur'st political party in Berlin, which Bethmann-Ho]!-wcg aims at leading, a party that is looking to handling tremendous postwar problems. Bothmann is flying kites and asking for less each time, but he cannot concede the terms to make peace acceptable to the Allies. The Armv chiefs won't allow him.

Militarsm. as* it is called, is Germany, and it js as indestructible as the race. If the Allies simply sat tight for another year they could feel certain that Germany would be helpless. Great loss of life would be spared. But to win the war by economic exhaustion alcne would be a bad thing for the future. Germany would begin to organise against econonrc exhaustion in future, and her military prestige, a great asset and instigation towards furthei great adventures, would remain. The nssertion of the military superiority of the Allies is therefore, essential to aclreving continued peace."