THE BEGINNING OF THE END.

Pukekohe & Waiuku Times, Volume 5, Issue 181, 9 June 1916, Page 2 (Supplement)

THE BEGINNING OF THE END.

WITHIN THREE MONTHS.

MR. JOHN BUCHAN'S PREDICTION.

"We are entering, to my mind, the most critical period, and the text three months will, 1 think, see the beginning of the final stage. "Now I have myself not the slightest fragment of a doubt as to how than final stage is going to end, but 1 do not think it will be a very sudden or brilliant end. " I think we may have a long and desperate struggle before we win the only kind of vhtory that will content us —the only kind of victory that will give us peace with security and lioncur.''

Mr. John Buchan, who speaks thus on "The Future ot the War, is a famous writer, who has spent months at the front, and is also the author of Nelson's "History oi the War"—one of the best published. His prophecy, quoted above, was made in an address given at the annual meeting of the Booksellers' Provident Institution in London. "For some months," he reminded his audience (according to the report n tlw "Publishers' Circular"), 'we have been passing through a very difficult time. Until a few weeks ago you might have called ;t a perilous stagnation. That kind of time of drag comes in every great war after the first- trial of strength s over and while the forces are collecting their energies for the final struggle." In a war of nations (he continued) victory will be won by three things. First "of all, numbers; secondly economic strength; and thirdly, and perhaps the most important, the morale —the fighting quality of the combatants. How do we stand in these respects? When we talk of numbers we do not mean mere numbers. We mean trained and disciplined men in tho prime of strength, with the proper complement of munitions and supplies. On the western front we outnumber the enemy by something which might possibly bo two to one, but I think certainly in three to two. On the eastern side Russia has vast reserves, and although owing to shortage ot certain vital kinds of munitions she is not able at present to use all her reserves n the field, yet even now I think she has a reasonable superiority in trained men.

On the west we can supply all the normal wastage o* war and keep up our field strength uutil probably the end of the year. Russia can do that and more. Further, she can provide as soon as her munitionment is complete, an army of assault to La used when the time comes.

Now how does Germany stand ? As first-class new troops she has only the class of 1916 and 1917—perhaps 600,000 in all—and there she has already begun to use at Verdun and has probably used elsewhere. She can keep up her field strength only by using these, and by bringing in men who are either too old or too feeble for normal military service.

Now the second element of strength is economic. After the war I fancy we shall be inclined to say that Germany gambled more upon that than upon any other thing. She anticipated, and she had always anticipated, some kind of blockade, and therefore sho made herself self-supporting for the main purpose rf war. That is to say, she has very few outside debts. Her debts are very nearly all to her own people, and she can meet these with an endless creation of paper money. So long as the German people believe ; n vicory and big indemnities, so long their Government paper will he willingly accepted, but the Allies are in a completely different case.

A SIMPLE ILLUSTRATION. Let me explain the situation by simple illustration. Supposing you have a foreress with an army besieging it. The garrison of the fortress does not need to have any gold. Assuming its larder is well stocked, and assuming they can grow potatoes in tlie castle garden, and there is enough material inside its walk to make ail the gunpowder it wants, it his 110 need tor money. The men do not waat paying in gold. They believe' they are going to win an dare satisfied with the captain's notes of hand, iiut tile besieging army is ,n a different position. It must have plenty of money. It must pay for local supplies in the coin which the producers will accept. The captain of the garrison need not have one brass halfpenny. Bankruptcy means little )r nothing at the present moment for Germany, and in a sense she is already I: nkrupt, and even in the event of 1 or being victorious I suppose she would be bankrupt unless a colossal indemnity was paid. But bankruptcy does nit affect her at present. She does not need any credit outside her own borders.

On the other hand bankruptcy for the Allies would bo the end of everything. Ir our credit failed we should l»e short of food for our peop.e and the most vital munitions of war.

That is why it is so vital to keep our credit up abroad. Th it is why the most rigid economy is necessary ill order to keep down our debts 'n foreign countries, and that is a matter >n which every single man and woman of us can lielp to win the war.

The third element is whit we call morale —the spirit of the light ng men. 1 want to point out to you that up to hist September Germany j as never been tried as the Allies k* ve been tried. She has never endur.'d Mich a searching oi' manhood ;.s that terrib'e four nioiilhs when Ru.'sia was iorced from position to position ivy mighty artillery and yet managed to i"tire unbroken armies. She has never had to endure anything like the first battle of Vpri ■«, when the thin Allied line, stretched to the '-ast limits of endurance, held back iive times it = weight of men and ten times is weight of guns.

I ]> to last November slic> '-r-d always played the pu:,c with i».e winning '•aids in h'T hand, and vet, curiously enough, she could lint win. The host piece of reasoned optimism 1 have met with is that of a i>riti"h non-commis-sioned officer. He w,v a.-ked what was going to happen, and hj" , d. "We are going to win all right." He was asked why ho thought so, and replied, ''Tt is like this: Germany has boon trying to win for ten months anr? can't, so we an hound to win." I want to he very clear about this vL"w of German courage. '('hero are countless instances of individual gallantry of men sticking to machineguns under deadly bombardment and coming out from their dug-ou s almost, single-handed to meet the flargos of our infantry: hut wv must d fTnrentiate between individual and (• rporate courage. They have many Ikoos,: bu: the stamina of their units, tl.eir battalions, and their brigade rir.et not seem to me to he equal to that of the Allies. I believe, so fnr as cone?,"is the mili-

tai'Y side, the Allies have th>. decision in Iheir hands. By this I mean the/ have the cards to win the game if they play them rightly. Now, what does victory mean? It means rimply the beating of the main German armies in the field. It is not necessa.-y to advance much farther than at present, and it k certainly not necessa.-y to get inside the frontiers of Germany. The linal blow may be str.ick many hundreds of nnles from the German borders and be quits as destructive as if it had been delivered in Prussia itself. If we defeat the main German armies so thoroughly that they no longer constitute an adequate defence of the German fortress then that fortress has fallen. Do not let us delude ourselves. Germany will not go clown easily. I am pretty certain that we may expect in tli? near future a great naval dash. Germany may have some card up her sleeve, one of those devices 'ike poison gas by which she hopes to redress the balance. I am confident that attemnt will fall.