WHEN WILL THE WAR END?

Pukekohe & Waiuku Times, Volume 4, Issue 107, 12 November 1915, Page 4 (Supplement)

WHEN WILL THE WAR END?

AN INTERESTING FORECAST

(By JEAN FINOT.)

The rriter of the following article, M. Jean Finot, the famous Paris editor and philosopher, is not only one ol the beak-informed me a on international diplomacy in the world, but outside of the Government itself is the best-fitted man in France for voicing the views and intentions of the French Republic in regard to the war. His" peace predictions and his hints as to the plans of the French Government for carrying on tho war may, therefore (says the New York "American,'' of August 22) be accepted as semi-official: — To the paramount question, "When will the war end?" —a question that grips the whole world more than ajiy other question has done in history—l do not hesitate to make the following rep'.v, conscious though I am that mo6t of the prophecies hitherto made regarding this problem have gone widely astray:—

There is every probability that the Allies will have won a complete and final victory about May, 1916. "Tiis is the opinion of a number of our most brilliant generals. Another prediction that I feel equally confident in making is that the Dardanelles operations will result in a slow and costly triumph for tho Allies, of incalculable significance, within a few months. How does the situation look from the viewpoint of figures? Germany is simply bluffing when she tells us she has more men than she needs. Among the prisoners we have taken we find youths of eighteen and nineteen and men as old as sixty. France still has in her depots bout 2,000,000 men cpable of being sent to the firing line. Russia, with her population ot 170.000,000 men, can, by working on the German plan, place on a war footing 17,000,000 to 20,000,000. Up to the present she has not mobilised more than 8,000,000. Great Britain, at a conservative estimate, is capable of putting in the field a voluntary army of has 1,500,000 tropos of the first line, and an ultimate reserve of al>out the same number.

While the great forward movement of the Allies may oome in the early autumn, I am rather inclined to believe that, owing to the inevitable obstacle® which the second winter of the war will put in the way of the general offensive, the call to advance will be sounded early next spring. The Allies w ; ll then have an overwhelming supply of munitions, and the final debacle will come one or two months later. That is why, having tapped what I consider the most weighty opinions of France, I say the war will end about next May. Unless unforsecn events will otherwise, the Allies will impose upon Germany a war indemnity of £14,000,000.000. It is calculated that Germany's methods have so far cost Europe half that sum, and as she shows no disposition to change her jwlicy of devastating enemy countries and sinking non-combatant ships, she will no doubt double her present bill. How will she lie able to pay so huge a sum? The AHiee will impose upon her the obligation of paying a billion yearly. In that way they will not only recover material war losses, but will put Germany beyond the financial possibility of continuing her militarism for at least a century. I admit that the opin'ons of even the best miiltary judges are not in themselves sufficient reason for believing the war will end by next May. But the self-evident facts of the situation point that way, too. It is beyond question that German strategy as originally conceived has broken down. Paris is npt occupied, Calais is remote from the Teuton grip. It is only an opinion, but I am sure Germany realises her failure even more keenly than we do, and sho wo j'«l be devoutly thankful to return to the "statue quo ante belluin." Having discussed this phase of th<* question with many of the leading men of Europe, I am convinced that had Germany conducted the war in accordance with the humanitarian rules of the game (as far as they can be humantarian) the Allies might have been ready to agree to a compromise peace that would have left German military honour unsullied. But the crimes of her army and navy—crimes proven, be it remembered, by the best balanced judicial minds of France, Great Britain, and Belgium—have rendered the Allies' implacable. I have reasons for stating that a few months ago the British Liberal Government, influenced by the tremendous loss of life and the incalculable business and financial interests at stake, was drifting to a rather lukewarm attitude towards the original plan of marching to Berlin at all costs. But the torpedoing of the Lusitama and the Zeppelin raids have since stiffened England and now she will bo the last to let Germany go unpunished. The vaunting utterances of Germin spokesmen, who make it only too plain to us that Germany seeks world dominion and domination, to the annihilation of all the institutions so dear to free and constitutional countries like England and France, have also done a lot to spur the Allies on to a war 'a entrance. '

Had Germany been victorious, had she been able to smash the Frencn army and with Austria the Russian army before England's land strength developed and before Italy joined tho Allies against bee, the wur would have been short. But because —let us frankface the fact—she : s still far from the end of her resistance, the war must be a long one—long, that is, for a titan:c war like this. Those who conduct the war for the Allies are not, and never have l>een, blind to the fact, that a highly industrialised, wealthy, populous nation like Germany, with the foremost metallurgical production in the world, has tremendous resources for waging this conflict; and until she begins to totter from sheer weakness, Germany will not give in.

While she lias-shocked us, Germany has also surprised m by her display of inventivo genius in carrying on thy war. She lias ruthlessly cast aside all sentiiuentiilism, and no uie.iqs are too horrible to destroy the enemy. Unfortunately for her, sho is constitutionally incapable of imagining thai her enemies too, caij improvise weapons equally deadly, unce they realise'the necessity of suppressing their qualms and playing tho fearful game as Germany plays it. 1 am aide to reveal that France has lately been trying out certain inventions (it would be treason to give details) perhaps more cruel than Germany's. France is putting the final touches to two inventions wheh, wlion put into action may ravage the German army as 11 cyclone ravages a defenceless country.

Even so, the war cannot end until tho Allien have invaded German territory, or entered Berlin itself. That will be no easy walk-over, and to acouiplish it will require all the more time, inasmucli as Germany has been accupicj several months iu defensive mea^-

ures. It would, nevertheless, be a mistake to suppose th u . :;ie entire Gtrman frontier must be lorced.

A moment will come when the Allies, in the plenitude of their strength, will make a big gap in the German frontier, that will enable them to enter the Empire in great force. It is not men that they require for such an operation even now, but ammunition. During the past winter and spring they have not paid sufficient attention to the question of munitions, though for several weeks past all the workshops of France and England have been working at full pressure. On the French front an actlve defensive will bo continued until we know we are twice or thrice as strong as Germany, from the standpoint of munitions. The Allies count not a little on Germany's own folly to hasten her fall. She blundered inconceivnbly at the start. If, instead of invading Belgium she had hurled herself against Eastern France, the Kaiser would have been muster of Paris within a fortnight and his plan would have ben carried out. England would not have helped us but for Belgium. Since then Germany has done everything possible to awaken the world's bitterest hatred against her. Her collective folly has thrown the United States into tha arms of the Allies, and is now about to make America her declared enemy. The truth is that the German people, while stone cold to the pains and woes of other nations, are excessively touchy about their own feelings. They can not see the reasonableness of anybody's viewpoint if it does not liappen to be their own, too; hence, the German l? normally the most unsociable being in the world. Right at bottom, it is this constitutional defect that has made the United States Germany's enemy, and thereby tended to shorten the war to the aJ vantage of the Allies. Germany is also driving openly against Holland at this moment. Her declared intention to annex Belgium and ho'd on to the country is a sentence of death for Holland. It took the Dutch some time to realise this, but the Kaiser and his counsellors are doing their best to drive it home. Today the fear of her disappearance as an independent people -S shooting through Holland from one ond to the other. She is in the throes of an intellectual revolt at the idea, and perhaps the day is not far distant wnen Holland will in reality throw herself into the Allies' camp for the benefit of the independence of little nations and for her own salvation. And the effect of such an event on the duration of the war would be imense. Give the Allies the chance of hurling an army across Holland, and German territory would not long remain inviolate. No consideration of this vital question of the duration of the war would be complete without some reference to economic and financial conditons in Germany. Her supplies are running out slowly, of that there is no doubt. For years she has been turning over her profits to the untiring expansion of her industries nnd markets. She has therefore, very litle floating capital; her wealth is tied up in her trade, and, with er trado next to moribund, her wealth is melting away like ice under a summer sun.

Moreover, the longer the war, the smaller her dinner of rega'ning lier market* in the outer world. New competitors will rise up, and among them the United States, who will not let go fo her customers onct* she has thein German commerce is built up on haul: credits, aind with the annihilation of German trade will necessarily come the ruin of the financial institutions. I have said that th's is a war "a outronce," It can be nothing else from the viewpoint of the Allies, fo: many reasons, not th least important of which is taht they have contracted a debt of honour towards Belgium, and cannot sign a peace until they have not only rendered back Belgium l.cr noble king, but made Germany compensate her for the devastation of the country and massacre of her livilnns. In short, the only peace possible is one based on justice. The war ;n ist go one until the Allies achieve th it peace. It will be a long, bloodv perioj vet —ten or eleven months more of untold suffering, Incalculable sacrifices, bereaved deserted fields, stupendous financial expenditure, and undying heroism, but the American people must understand the spirit in which France and all the Allies look at the problem. The peace they seek must be a final peace.