The Patea Mail. (Published Wednesdays and Saturdays.) WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 11, 1880.

Patea Mail, Volume V, Issue 499, 11 February 1880, Page 2

The Patea Mail. (Published Wednesdays and Saturdays.) WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 11, 1880.

It is a time honored law that five .Sundays in February indicate a good harvest, and, as far as the Australian C’/olonies are concerned, there is every prospect of the ancient saying being justified this once at least, Tonng countries, whose resoursos and industries are hut slightly developed, naturally depend largely for prosperity on the (bod and raw material which they can produce more cheaply that old countries can. To them, therefore, nothing can he of greater importance than a good harvest, whether it be accompanied by five Sundays in February nr not. The present year is remarkably favorable as regards the yield obtained by our farmers, and also as regards the foreign market which will be open to colonial exporters, so that, however old countries may bo affected by having to buy largely, the vonng countries cannot but be benefitled bv having something to sell and an opportunity to sell it. ,Speaking first of the colonial yield, we note that South Australia, the premier grain-grower of the Australasian group,

expects a surplus for export of -120,QU0 tons, or nearly sixteen millions of bushels; and Victoria expects, instead of importing, as she sometimes does, to export about four million bushels. Twenty million bushels of wheat, which these two colonies will have to spare, appear to be a tremendous supply of food, and are almost enough to make the New Zealand farmer think there will be no room for him in the market; we shall see, however, that there are no grounds for such a fear. In our own Colony the harvest is uniformly good. Some fanners in Canterbury, which for the last two years, with a thousand acres of crop, did not yield more than five or six thousand bushels, will this year supply nearly forty thousand bushels to the market. The average throughout the Colony will, for this season, be several bushels per acre higher than that of last year. Besides which it must be remembered that vast areas of now laud have, in this harvest, made their first contributions towards feeding the world. Last year there were 204,000 acres of fallow laud in the Colony, a considerable proportion of which has, of course, been sown in wheat, it appears that oven five million bushels of wheat may not be an extravagant estimate of what New Zealand will have to spare for the English market, in 1880. With respect to the produce i i our own district, we may add that in wheat, wo believe it is scarcely up to former years, although it has been far from bad, and has, as far as oats are concerned, been remarkably good. The fall of!’, if so it can be called, in the wheat crop, has not been directly due to bad weather, so much as to the appearance of blight, which, we are informed, lias done very considerable mischief. The produce will, however, probably be more than enough for local wants, and as it is next to impossible at present to export grain profitably, there will not be any very great amount of discontent. Speaking of the Colony as a whole, the harvest, and the harvest weather, have been all that could he desired. This fact bears on the welfare of New Zealand in more ways than one. This splendid harvest is being witnessed by men who were deputed from England to spy out the nakedness, or the fatness of the land, as the case might be. Had they visited the Colony last year, the impression would, especially in Canterbury, have been much loss favorable than it must ncoessarilly be this year. It is no colonial “ Plow” to saj that, if the Lincolnshire Delegates, Messrs Grant and Foster, give a fair report of what they see, a new era will be opened in immigration to New Zealand, and we shall have visiting our shores, not only penniless families seeking work, hut also men who will he prepared to enter the lists as employers. But fr.-m ibis digression let us return to the question of the market open for the twenty -five million bushels of wheat which wc saw the three Colonics—South Australia, Victoria, and New Zealand — will have to export. Our readers are

aware that of a succession of bail harvests in England, the last has been the worst. The same may with more or less truth be said of the whole of Europe. Kussia, for example, which has long been one of the chief sources of wheat supply to western Europe, will this year not only have little or none to spare, but even begins to contemplate the necessity of importing. The best authorities on the subject estimate that Europe will require to import 285 million bushels ! Compared with this enormous demand the colonial supply is hut a mouthful, and, if reasonable expedition is used in shipping it away, it cannot fail of a market. The United States will have 140 million bushels to spare, and Canada 20 million. The yield of South America will be seriously affected by the war raging there, but Egypt and Algeria will-be laid under contribution, as usual, and there is no doubt that the European deficiency will be more than met. There is, therefore, no fear of anything approaching a famine in the old world, and the question that concerns ns is, what ’price will rule in the English market? There has been a tendency to decline, but the latest advices quoted, gives about 7s 4d per bushel. Putting it at 7s, and allowing 2s Gd per bushel for all expenses, the wheat should be worth 4s Od in Now Zealand ports. This a fair price to the grower, especially in a year of plenty. The markets in Canterbury have opened at about 4s to 4s 3d for milling samples, and at 3s lOd to 3s lid with the large buyers. This is rather low, especially as the. abundant crops of oats are worth very little, and it is the opinion of the Canterbury Times that farmers would be large gainers by shipping to England on their own account.

There is one danger, however, and that, is, there will nob be sufficient carrying power to take onr surplus to Loudon. There will probably be some fifty or sixty thousand tons more to carry this year than there were last, and there is room to fear that there may not be a proportionate increase in the means of transport. In fact, so far has the harvest in Victoria and South Australia outrun the carrying power, that freights have risen in those colonies, from 20s to CDs per ton. In this matter, however, the New Zealand farme will have the advantage of his Australian neighbour by about fid per bushel; the New Zealand Shipping Company having fixed freight for the season at 50s per ton. Taking the whole case into consideration, the plenteous harvest at a fair price, and the fine weather for saving it, together with a

favorable turn in the wool market, we confidently predict the return of brighter davs to the colony.