HARD TASK AHEAD

Otago Daily Times, Issue 26626, 24 November 1947, Page 6

HARD TASK AHEAD

BRITISH EXPORT DRIVE RESTORATION OF BUYING POWER For the Daily Times, by John Kingsley LONDON, Nov. 14. Over the eight months to the middle of next year, Britain, if she is to get within sight of balancing her overseas trade account in total, must increase the volume of her exports to 140 per cent, of 1938. And then, after that tough task is achieved, she must go straight on to raise the volume still further to 160 per cent, by the end of 1948, in order to be able to restore some of her import cuts and food reductions. The achievement of these export targets is of interest not only to the British people, but to the whole world, for the sooner the United Kingdom is paying its way the sooner will her restored buying power be felt in other countries. Figures Keenly Awaited Now, with the new export drive getting into its stride, it should not be long before the monthly overseas trade figures begin to record the progress being made. While the October figures are unlikely to include much in respect of the new drive, they should include some substantial results from the export drive which has been going on from the end of the war, and they should be the starting point for measuring the progress of the new drive. The specific targets which have been set will naturally be the most important measuring rods. But if we are to try to separate the new drive from the old, some other method of comparison seepis necessary. This mean fixing a basis from which to start the measurements, which opens up Several alternatives. The basis could be an average of the monthly figures to the' end of September, but, because of the abnormalities of the first two quarters, this would not be truly representative. It is better therefore to take one or more quarters. The official calculation for the new export targets used the fourth quarter of 1946, when the export volume was 111, as the best available base. A better base, I think, if only because it is nearer the springboard from which the new drive is taking off, is the third quarter of this year. In spite of holiday interruptions the export volume was then 114, the highest for any post-war quarter and more than one-third of the way towards the mid-1948 target. Detailed figures recently issued show h ,? w -£ lfferent the industries stood in the September quarter in relation to the new targets. Britain’s export recovery is based largely on the manufacturing .industries which have been targeted to reach 162 per cent, of the 1938 volume by mid-1948, and 187 per cent, by the end of 1948; the total volume figure in the September quarter was 131, compared with 126 in the last quarter of 1946. September Returns

Examining the various groups of manufacturers we find that most sections recorded a greater volume in the September, 1947, quarter than in the fourth quarter of last year. . Taking the leading groups by' order of the value of their exports, the volume reached in the three months compared with the mid-1948 target was: Machinery 168 towards the target of 216; vehicles, including locomotives, ships and aircraft, 202 towards 258; iron and steel and the manufacturers thereof, 114 towards 104 (vital home demands for iron and steel account for the comparatively low export target that has been set); cotton 45 towards 56; chemicals, drugs, etc., 153 towards 188; wool, 91 towards 146; cutlery, hardware, implements and instruments, 201 towards 202. Outside the manufacturing group the most interesting movement was in the exports of tobacco, which reached a volume of 193 in the September quarter, compared with 168 in the last quarter of 1946. Turning to the* production side ofi the British recovery programme, the latest figures indicate good progress in a number of industries. The steel output per man in September and the early part of October was at least 10 per cent, higher than in the' corresponding period of 1946. The rayon output in September of £18.6 million beat all previous records and was 20 per cent, higher than in September, 1946. Commercial vehicles production in September also broke a new record at 19.650 for the month, which was about 111 times the pre-war rate of output. The railway wagon production of 3415 in August, as against 2787 in July, was almost up to the January record level of 3445. Barring unforeseen hold-ups there seem to be reasonable grounds for looking for a steady expansion in the production of many essential goods from now onwards.