IS WHEAT A PROFITABLE CROP? (Christchurch Press.)

North Otago Times, Volume XXXVII, Issue 8174, 4 May 1895, Page 4

IS WHEAT A PROFITABLE CROP? (Christchurch Press.)

Doea ib pay to grow wheat) 1 That is au all-important question to Cantorbury farmers, as the growing of whoat during tho pasb fifteen years or so has been only second io importance to tho growing of wool and mutton. Until tho pasb two or thrco years ib was, on the whole, a proQbablo crop, but when prices (ell, as they did laib year, bolow •2a per bushel ab country stations farmers had bo admib thab ib couiJ not be grown for the money. The question now for consideration is — What aro the proapec sof tho future? The recenb cubles, which note a genera' improvement in England, the Coubinonb and America, lead to the hope thab the bed rock bottom of prices has been passed, and thab tho general trout in the near future will be upwards Wo have had so many " false starts ' during the pnsb few month that those interested in wheat) growing havo almoib loat heart), and have begun te think that prices would never mend But the old saying, that u ib \* a lon| lane withoub a turning," applies t( wheab values as well as to other things The facb is thab the law of supply anc demand regulates in the long run th< price of all staple commodities, anc when the production of wheab ex< ceeded the consumption values natur ally began to give way, bub tho trad< were some time before they fullj realised that stocks were accumulating in all the chief wheat producing coun tries in the wold, Hence ib tool two or three years after the produc t:on had exceeded the consumptioi before the position was fully graspei by wheat importing countries, ant before prices collasped as they havi done during the pasb two or thrci seasons. lv considering whether i will pay to grow wheat for nexb yea farmers are menaced by the largi accumulations of stocks which still re main in the chief wheat-producinf centreß. For instance, in tho Unitec States the visible supply of wheab ii April, 1891, was 22,183,000 bushels in 1892 ib increased to 41,360,00( bushels; in 1893 to 77,055,000; oi the 17th April, 1894, ibwas b4,900,00l bushels, and on the corresponding dati of the presenb year it) had risen to 86,300,000 bushels, thus showing ho* steadily stocks have accumulated ii thab country. Then, again, whilst tli quantity of wheab afloab for Englani and the Continenb was on tho 17tl April, 1892, 31,410,000 bushels i had increased to 39,300,000 bushel by the middle of the present month These figures in themselves are not a all encouraging as to future prospect for wheat growers, a they tend t show that tho enormous accumulation of the pasb few yearß havo nob yu been gob rid of. Bub thero are other factors to b taken into consideration which ar much more encouraging, For iusbauu we learn by recent cables thab it i estimated the French crop will b 0,000,000 quarters (or 48,000,00( bushels) and the United States croj 50,000,000 bushels bolow those of las year ; thus, these two countries alom are expected to harvesb 100,000,001 bushels lees in 1895 than in 1894, ant whab is happening in the Unitec States and Franco, is in all probability happening in Russia, the Argentine and India In fact, ib is admitte< thab prices have recently fallen so fa below tho average cost of production that even in new countries like thi Argentine, where they have the ad vantages of virgin boil, the acreage o wheab this year shows a considerable shrinkage in comparison wibh tin previous year. Looking nearer home we find from the agricultural statistics of the present year that the area of wheab grown in Canterbury for 1895 was only 107,G5G acreg, a! against 174,252 acres in 1894, and 270,780 acres in 1893. In view ol these facts it is nob reasonable te believe thab the swing of the pendulum in the near future will be in the direction of higher prices, owing to the probable decrease in the world's wheat crop? A shortage bhe world over of 200,000,000 bushels in tho crop for 1895 would send prices up from 103 to 20s per quarter in a few months, and is ib nob reasonable, in view of the lessoned area reported in most) wheat-growing countries, to be* lieve that such a shortage is possible 1 In such a caie, as all past accumu lations would be absorbed before bhe crop of 189G could be gathered, ib really seems as if there is a fair prospect of the Canterbury farmers getting a reasonable profit) for their nexb season's crop. And as the world moves very slowly, we think there is a chance of a higher range of prices during the next fow years. Uecause, if the United Strtes, Kusaia, France, the Argentine, ani India all show a falling oil' their production of the presenb year, ib will, in all probability, tako them two or three years to regain the ratio of their production of IS9I, '92, and '93, and as the wheat con. Burning inhabitants of bhe world are estimated to increase ab the rate of some five or six millions annually, there appears to be a reasonable prospect of the consumption holding in check bbc pioduction for the nexb few years. We do not wish to tako too sanguine a view of the future, and cannob shut our eyes to bhe general fall in the price level of all the chief ■biple commodities of the world, therefore ib is perhaps too much to assume that wheat alone will recover from the recent fall- Bub for bhe reasons given we do thick thab everything points to the probability of prices having reached their minimum last year, and thab the recent slighb improvement) is bub A beginging of an upward movement. Ab any rate we are nob hazarding much in asserting our belief thab wheat will prove the besb-paying grain crop nexb season, Ib is bruo that balß*a«crown per buihel does not mean a fortune to a farmer, bub we well know tbab io long as luoh a price can be obtained at a country rail* way ibibion in an average season, a fair return in obtained from, land yioldiDg anything over twenty bußhola jjer note. farmers are exuarleooiag •

and if thoy tako advantage of tho weather and get an increased area sown early with winter wheat, wo believe they will nob regreb having taken our advice, provided they are favorod with a reasonable season and lino lmrvcsb weather.