Manawatu Herald. SATURDAY, OOT. 29, 1898. France and Russia.

Manawatu Herald, 29 October 1898, Page 2

Manawatu Herald. SATURDAY, OOT. 29, 1898. France and Russia.

V The " Novoe Vremya " states that Sir M. Hicks Beaoh has failed to remember that Russia has firmly resolved to support Franoe in her claims in view of the solidarity of their interests." This warning iff very kind on the part of the Russian press, but was quite unnecessary as the whole question both as to the fitness of Franoe and Russia to stand the strain of war in a pecuniary sense have been long ago con. sidered. During the Russo-China alarm a short time ago the question was dealt with by Mr W. R. Lawson, a recognised writer upon international finance, in the " National Review " and he arrived at the con elusion despite the great boom in her industrial enterprises she would find herself in a very difficult position on the outbreak of war. He writes:— "If the Russian Government were seriously thinking of going to war with Great Britain, or even witb Japan, one thing is certain, that it could not hope to screw its ordinary revenue much higher than it is already. All economic authorities who have studied the actual oondition of tbe Russian people agree that they are overtaxed already, and could bear no additional burdens." What will interest U3 now is the statement that Russian finance is so closely bound up with that of France that the two cannot be considered apart, and in tbis oase, presuming that ahe looks upon the Fashoda incident as merely, which it seems to be, a political move to hide the

turmoil in the French Assembly, she may use her position to check France from going too far. We have been told that the Ru. . ian Minister called at Paris, and by the tone of the press of Russia it is clear that the claim made by France to the country around Fasboda is so slight that in their opinion an outlet to the Nile would be sufficient recompense for what they pretend they have to give up. It is exceedingly probable, notwithstanding the query put by the " Novoe Vremya " as to what is the value of the French alliance, that Russia would Bupport France, but then her capitalists would incur great pecuniary risks by dragging Russia into the trouble, for Mr W. R. Lawson says: — "Franco is now the principal creditor as well as the chief ally of Russia in Europe. Not only has she three-fourths of the Government bonds held abroad, but she is stuffing herself full of Russian mining shares and other wild-cat scrip specially manufactured for her consumption. Frenchmen who can appreciate the risk to both countries involved in this Franco-Russian boom — as mad as the Kaffir circus in its worst days — are afraid to calculate the amount of French money locked up in it. The lowest estimate is eight milliards of francs, and some of them ran as high as j eleven milliards. The day that sees Russia on the verge of war witb another Great Power will give the Paris Bourse a far worse fright over its Russian securities than it is now ! having over its Spanish bonds. An actual outbreak of war wouid knock 25 per cent at least off the market value of these securities— say two milliards off eight. There might not be much appetite for new loans after tha.." The loss to France will occur if Russia enters into war on her own account or as an ally of that country, and therefore both are placed very disadvantageous^ for war as regards money. France has a debt of £1,224,046.280, and Russia a debt of £970,000,000, whilst England has a debt of £644,---909,847. If a country does go to war it ia wonderful how money oan be raised, as Spain has shown us, but the ruiuous rates agreed to be paid for the accommodation will tend to stagger the country which has to raise help in this manner, of which Turkey affords a latter day example. We take this opportunity of giving a further instance of the extraordinary swift changes made in French Ministries and Ministers. We pointed out that in the last twenty-seven years Franoe has had thirty-five Ministries, and this year we have witnessed some lightning changes. A general election took place in May, and a new Ministry was formed from out of what was thought the Moderate party. A President of the Chamber was elected and in June he resigned and another was appointed in his stead. The name of the holder of tho office of Minister of War in May we do not know, but we find in September M. Oavaignao was appointed to that office, whioh he resigned because of a proposal to reverse the sentence on Dreyfus, and in Ootober General Chanoine took his place and the cablegrams informs us that he threw up bis position in a dramatic manner a day or two ago. Probably by now a new Ministry will have been formed. These are some of tho surprises which await the diplomats of steadier countries, and which causes France to be held in fear and. trembling by all the countries of Europe, for as the Coster would say. that in dealing with her states men "You do not know where c* are."