The Guardian And Evening Star, with which is in corporated tho West Coast Times. TUESDAY, DECEMBER 29, 1925. THE UNKNOWN FACTOR.

Hokitika Guardian, 29 December 1925, Page 2

The Guardian And Evening Star, with which is in corporated tho West Coast Times. TUESDAY, DECEMBER 29, 1925. THE UNKNOWN FACTOR.

Al.i ilormi the signing of I lie Locarno I’act is Hit' most promising portent ol peace tliiit civilisation has been granted since the Armistice, ami although, coupled with the recent defeats ot Communism in Australia, New Zealand and Croat liritain, it does really seem to provide sound basis for a belief, says the Sydney “Herald,” that, the world is returning at last to sanity, there is one aspect of it that must give cause for very serious consideration. Russia was not represented at l.orarno, and Russia has not signed the Pact. And yet it may well be that Russia will have more effect upon the immediate future of Kurope than the majority of the countries whose signatories offieiated at the great function in London a fortnight ago. ■* What do they know of Hnglaiid.” asl;s Kipling in a famous line. “ who only Kugland

know?” A very similar question, with a very different implication, might well he asked of Russia. What do we know of Russia who only know of her as llie home of Bolshevism ? For there can lie no denying the fact that that is mil the real Russia, any more than the Franee of the Revolution was the real France. France of the Revolution was hut a phase of degradation between two epochs of greatness. May it not he so with Russia? The evidence seems to support the analogy; and if the evidence prove correct how will the Russia, of the second greatness affect the world at large? That is the great problem of which we will see the solution slowly working itself out as the years go by. Russia is the great unknown; how are we to know her, and what will >»<* the result of that knowledge. For some time past we have regarded Russia as only the place where a dreadful experiment has been in the making; we have regarded her as the central spider of the Communist weh; the chosen abode of everything

that is subversive and revolutionary and “ red.” ft is true that Russia is all these things. Rut it is decidedly not true that she is only these tilings: and it is highly probable that the things which she really is are vastly more important than these things. The Communist, or Bolshevist, party which now rules Russia through the Soviet Government forms only a very small proportion of her enormous population. That small population, being extremely vigorous and fanatical, as all extremists are. has captured the reins of authority, and is at present driving the State coach over a dangerous road at a reckless gallop. But Russia of the Reds is not the real Russia after all. and it is the real Russia and its possibilities that evidently concern us most. If its methods do not improve it may heroine the most powerful enemy to civilisation that the world has known. That is a statement that most of us admit to be true ; but whatwe are much slower to recogniise is that, if its methods do improve until they conform to the ordinary usages of* in-

ternational intercourse, its industrial health is such that its competition, which has already become a danger, may, in its full maturity, involve its rivals in disaster. Russia’s trade is growing bv leaps and bounds; and if she can progress in this wav. with her Government representing hut a fraction of her people, and in no wise their real trend of opinion, what a Russia may we not have to face when her Government and the majority of her people are prompted by a unison of thought. A good deal of misconception in regard to Russia arises from the fact that we are too apt to compare the Russia of to-day with the Russia of the ante-war period. The comparison is bound to mislead, because Russia has been shorn ot much

cal and populous territory by the reults of the war. and the industrial idvnnce which . those territories represent is very great. But it is no onger credited to Russia, which thus ippears to have regressed to a very nueh greater extent than she really ins. Figures show, indeed, that Rusiin of to-day- is exhibiting a remarkible convalescence. In an exceedingv informative article contributed to the November issue of tho “Fortnightly Review’’ Mr Robert Crosier Long most clearly demonstrates this recovery. and lie also shows, in no uncertain words, the danger which such recovery connotes to Europe in general. and to the British Empire in particular. The economical position of

Russia is belter to-day. lie asserts, ihau at any time since the .Soviets grasped power. The currency has been stabilised; tin 1 foreign trade is rapidly extending; and the business year ot 1925-192(1 will probably beat all records, both in volume and value, since 1913. Russia’s abundant harvests this year will affect the world's markets; her export of wool already seriously injured the trade in other European countries. and her fishing and mining industries have expanded very greatly and very rapidly. Bui it is in her relations with Germany that Mr Lorn secs the most urgent danger. Germany is of Die West, but she I’accEast. too; and her position, aided by the foresight of her trade authorities has already enabled her to get ahead of her rivals -and of England in mirticulr -to an alarming degree. Willi Bn—sia proper England “still makes a fan display as seller - ’ but with Poland, Finland, and these minor Baltic territorities which were Russian before 11 • war Germany has already “hopelessly beaten” her. Russia will prove a very hie buyer in the near future. Russia'.' industrial progress is immense. \-

Kngland to lose that trade altogether? Is that progress to lie at the expense of the. Empire? These are possibilities, apparently, which arc by no means remote.