THE IRISH OUTLOOK

Hokitika Guardian, 21 October 1924, Page 4

THE IRISH OUTLOOK

“NOTHING IS CERTAIN.” (Uv Ah Old Stager in the “ .Lyttelton Times”)* LONDON, September li. As usual when crises threaten, Air Lloyd George has come straight in the limelight. Pcnmaenmnwr is a small place, blit the speech he made there was big in every sense—a speech fraught with high consequence, perhaps from the Irish standpoint in particular. Air Lloyd George stands by the treaty with the Free State, supports the Government in its determination to give effect to the boundary clause, and agrees with Lord liirkcnhead’s interpretation of that clause. -More, he revealed enough of the secret history of its drafting to show that wholesale mutilation of I Ister territory was never intended, and that the Free State signatories accepted the clause on that understanding. Nevertheless, Air Lloyd George does not suggest—and Lord liirkeiihcad has gone out of his way to deny—that it is for anybody hut the Boundary Commission itself to construe the clause add thereby decide the question of its powers. In those circumstances, two questions inevitably arise. First, will the Ulster Government accept the risk, such as it may be, and appoint a Commissioner of its own ? Speculation is rife on the point, but 1 ain assured in authoritative Ulster quarters that there is little if any, chance of such a development. The second question touches Air Lloyd George’s own intentions. Will he, ill that event, support the Conservatives in demanding insertion in the Government's Bill ot words specifically limiting the power ot the Commission to mere rectification of the existing Ulster frontier:-' Nobody expects it, if only because the Free State Government would denounce stub action ns a breach of the Irentv.

Wliat, then, is the Irish outlook? Nothing is certain (nothing over is where Ireland is concerned), but one may at least indicate the unexpected course of events, assuming that Ulster declines to give way and that the Government’s Bill passes. 1 here ate those who say that Air Cosgrave, the Free State President, is simply awaiting the latter event in order to reopm negotiations with Sir .Limes Craig. It may be so, but I doubt it. More probably, tbe Bound iry Commission will be set up straight 'away (the British Government nominating a representative for Ulster), and while it functions both sides in Ireland will watch and wait. II Hie Commission should make no really material change in the boundary, the Northern Government may be expected to give no further trouble. Iho danger then will he of Free State origin for the Ilepublieans will ci\ • “Betrayed,” and Air Cosgrove's Government may not survive. In that event, an Irish Bepublic would almost eortainly.be debarred, and British troops would be required to protect the North. If. on the other hand, the Commission is to transfer to the Free Slate large areas of l Ister territory, the Northern Government, backed up by the whole Protestant population would probably denounce the de-oi.-ion and resist its operation. What would happen then it. is dtlfioillt to conjecture. These, oT course, are what | mav call extreme forecasts. Between them arc various possibilities, any of which might transform the sit mil ion. Wo can only wait and see.