POLITICAL SWING

Hawke's Bay Herald-Tribune, Issue 179, 16 August 1937, Page 11

POLITICAL SWING

i Otu Own Correspondent.)

No Change in Voting Trend at Home LABOUR'S LOST GROUND

(From

LONDON, July 21. Eleven by-elections have reeently been held m JBritain. Tlie National Government has won them all. Ihe ieI sult has been received joyfully by its j supporters and the moral has been I drawn that the political penduluin has i not swung back to tlie Opposition eain>e J at a time when it is due to do so by | rhe law of average. Propagandists liave pointed out that, even if fewer votes were polled by the Government candidates than at the general election — and this was to be expected — the Opposition votes have j slamped more heavily in numbers. The { Opposition admits the fall in the poll, | but replies that the Government vote | has fallen and that the battle was on i predominantly Government ground. j There have been 34 by-elections since : the general election in November, 1935. j Labour has won five seats from tlie National Government. Of these five four were won last year. The six months I of 1937 has seen one Labour success. in Central Wandsworth. The last 33 byelections have not produced one Labour member. In the 23 by-elections between November, 1935, and Mr Baldwin's resignation last May the Government candidates polled 390;581 votes, against an Opposition (combined Labour and Liberal) total of 363,111. In the 11 by-elections held sinee Mr Chamberlain became Priine.Minister the Government candidates have polled 197,086 votes, against an Opposition total of 124.89S. Lhbour Following. The Labour vote grew steadily from 1906, when it first became a recognised Parliamentary party, until 1929. Two years later it fell heavily— the actual proportion of votes in 1931 was 55 per cent. Coalition, 30 per cent. Labour, 10 per cent. Liberal and 4 per. cent. Independent. The ground lost then was not reeovered in 1935, and has . not been -reeovered since. In theory, say the Government supporters, the delayed swing of the pendulum should operate more strongly after a Government has won two suocessive general eleetions. This happened" to the Conservatives, who lost 21 seats during the 1900-05 administration, compared with 11 seats during the 1895-1900 administration. But history has not yet begun to repeat itsetf in the National Government 's second term, Before the Great War the poll at a by-election was generally high; it was felt to be a national event, and both parti.es exerted themselvos to poll their last man. To-day, all that is changed. Polling at a general election is generally high, aVeraging 80 per cent. of the clectoral roll, but at by-elections the po'lls have fallen to 60, even 50 per cent. of the electorate. Kingston touched a new low level with only 38 per cent. a week ago. Most of the fall is due to abstentions by supporters of the National Government, and is no doubt caused by the large majorities at the general election inducing a feeling of apathy, In the Nationalists' view, hbwever, it is very significant that the Labour vote, which should increase through the normal gwing of the pendulum at precisely sueh a period, has fallen rapidly during the past six months.