THE POLITICAL CRISIS.

Globe, Volume XXIII, Issue 2281, 25 July 1881, Page 3

THE POLITICAL CRISIS.

[Br Tbuegbaph]

[from ths own correspondent ov thb "PBBSS."J WELLINGTON, July 24. The political situation is practically unchanged since Friday night, when the Government could at any time have gone to a division with a safe majority of six, owing to the absence of three Opposition men—Messrs Pvke, Finn, and Driver. These, however, are oil expected to bj here on Tuesday, and the present belief is that the division will then take place, as both sides are growing weary of the waste of time. If every member in the House votes, the Government can count on a majority of three, namely, 45 against 42. Of course no race is won until the winning post is definitely passed, and there are always some members who positively refuse to pledge themselves beforehand. In the present case Ministers are understood now to have 43 votes absolutely promised against Mr Ormond's motion, while other two although not distinctly pledged, are nevertheless regarded as quite safe for their party, notwithstanding the side issue set on the local Government ory. The Opposition still assert loudly that they have a majority of one, but the astounding yarns they circulated as to their strength immediately after Mr Ormond moved his amendment have tried the public credulity a little too much. Mr Sheehan is indefatigable in his exertions to make proselytes, but Mr Ormond's name carries no magic, while Sir G. Grey's has lost its spell, and there is a general feeling that Mr Ormond has played a very shabby part, and that Sir G. Grey, by leaguing himself with Mr Ormond, has committed a great blunder in polioy which will cost him many future votes.

I do not feel at all certain that the division will really pome off on Tuesday, notwithstanding the protestations of both sides that they are quite ready. I have seen so many no-confidence divisions put off day after day for a whole week or more after fixing the date for dividing, that I should not be at all surprised to see the debate drag on till Friday. I but simply record the present arrangement, which is for the grand issue to be tried on Tuesday next. There has been a rumour about to-day that the Opposition would not go to a division till the last moment, but finding themselves in a certain minority would allow the amendment to lapse, and pretend that the only issue they intended to raise was that of approval or disapproval of the local Government measures, and not the question of confidence or noconfidence in the Ministry. It is well known '.hat meat strenuous efforts are being made by the Opposition to attract two northern members, whom they conceive to be not impregnable to advances, and if these attempts fail then it is said that the whole affair will be allowed to collapso. Personally I disbelieve this, and expect to see a close division, although Bome of the Ministerial party are sarguine of materially increasing their present majority.