THE POLITICAL CRISIS.

Globe, Volume XXIII, Issue 2280, 23 July 1881, Page 4

THE POLITICAL CRISIS.

[7BOH THB OWN COBBBSPONDEKT OT THE “ PBB88.”J

WELLINGTON, July 23.

The political horizon has still further brightened to-day on the Government side, and there now seems little doubt that Ministers will score a majority of at least two, and probably more. The panic which Mr Ormond’s amendment at first created is rapidly dying out. Now that members have had leisure to look round them and consider their position, they find that there are many who deem it quite consistent to oppose Mr Ormond’s amendment without supporting the G-overnment proposals, and they are disposed to adopt this course. There is also not the slightest doubt that this was a serious difficulty at first with several, and led them to go about crying that all was lost, for they could see at first no way out of the difficulty in which the terms of Mr Ormond’s motion placed them, and it seemed as if all who were not satisfied with the Ministerial proposals must necessarily to be consistent vote with him. This mist, however, has now almost wholly o'earod away, the plain, straightforward utterances of Messrs Weston, Bunny and Saunders, all of whom had been positively claimed by the Opposition, doing much to dispel any lingering uncertainty that might remain as to whether Mr Ormond’s amendment must be voted on according to its ostensible purport, or whether it could really be treated us a no confidence motion pure and simple. This latter is the course which the Ministerial party are now thoroughly united in adopting. They will vote against Mr Ormond as a party wholly irrespective of the question whether or not they approve of the Ministerial proposals regarding local Government. Tho latter question indeed is completely in the back ground now, and only alluded to as a matter of form. It is a case of “ confidence or no confidence” now, and until that is settled do other issues will really be entertained at all. It is impossible to fix with any accuracy the result of the coming division, but it seems tolerably certain that at least forty-five votes can now be depended upon to go into the Ministerial lobby when the bell rings. Possibly one or two of these may be a little doubtful, and still open to adverse influence, but I have just been very carefully through the lists with several members on both sides of the House, and the independent conclusion I have arrived at is that the Government is almost sure of a majority of three, and has a very fair chance of adding one or two to this. Members of the Opposition now admit that 'they do not expect a larger majority than one, but assert that they are sure' of this, at any rate, I entirely differ from them, for I happen to know a little of the way their first lists, which startled everybody so greatly, were made up. Tho unblushing falsehoods which have been put forward as to pledges being received from some of the staunchest adherents of the Government to support Mr Ormond’s motion have altogether exceeded the customary license allowed to Opposition touts. The cool way in which they claimed such men as Messrs Saunders, Weston, Bunny, Allwright, Hunt, Swanson, Shanks, and Wright os being “ quite safe ” on their side was positively amazing in its utter impudence, a* was also their putting down of Messrs Brandon, Oolbeok, Gibbs, Murray, and others as “doubtful ” or wavering. It was impossible, however, to contradict them flatly in the face of the fact that members had preserved a good deal of reticence as to their intentions on the local government question. I find that some members are annoyed at its being mentioned that the Opposition claimed them ; but however untrue the charge might be, it is undeniable that the Opposition leader did most loudly and positively claim them, and in one or two instances even professed to show written or telegraphic pledges. Notably was this the case, as I mentioned yesterday in respect to Mr Bunny, a leading member of the Opposition distinctly stating that ho had a telegram from Mr Bunny giving his adhesion to Mr Ormond. 1 told you that tho Ministerial party had Mr Bunny’s assurance of support, and that he would probably speak on the Government side last night, as he subsequently did. I find that tho only telegram Mr Bunny sent in reply to some dozen canvassing his vote, was one simply stating where he was staying. Similar inventions have been sednlonsly spread that Mr Brandon was to secede from Ministers because it was proposed to alter his constituency in the new .Representation Bill, in a manner supposed to be inimical to his interests ; Messrs Hirst and Shanks, as prominent county councillors, because the 20 per cent, of land fund had been taken away ; Mr Wright, because 25 per cent, of the Waimate plains proceeds has been given to the Now Plymouth Harbor Board, and so forth. All this, of course, was to a largo extent pure invention, but it was given forth with tho authority of gospel, and only time has exposed its unbath. I believe lam justified in saying that the only secessions from the Ministerialist ranks definitely pronounced are Messrs Ormond, Driver, and Reader Wood. Mr Ormond thus stands all but alone in the midst of the Grey party, and if he could succeed in defeating Ministers ho would be left wholly powerless, and must either confess his impotence to command a party or lay everything at Sir G. Grey’s feat and give in his own homage also. Ho is ganerally felt to have placed himself in a thoroughly false position, from which he will find it very bard to extricate himself with any remnants of personal credit or reputation. Tho debate was very dull this afternoon. At one time, whilst Mr Gibbs was speaking, only eight members remained in the House, «nd a count was called, for. When the boll rang intense sensation was caused in the lobbies, and there was a frantic rush into the House in the belief that the division had come on unexpectedly. It very nearly came about accidentally after Mr Shrimski sat down, but Mr Hurathouae saved it by rising just in time. It is curious that in this debate the mover of an adjournment has not once resumed tho debate, and this has occurred four times running. There is still much talk of taking the division on Tuesday, but as only twenty-seven members have yet spoken to Mr Ormond’s amendment, leaving sixty who yet may speak, and of whom I hear quite half are anxious to do so, the debate may last all next week. I fancy, however, that it will soon collapse, as members seem too much hampered by the double issue before them to speak with freedom or force. The House and galleries wore nearly empty this afternoon, but wore much fuller to-night, in spite of the continued gale and rain, which has lasted the whole week. It is tolerably certain that whichever way the division goes on almost total obstruction to the business of the session has boon caused by Mr Ormond’s action.