WEATHER FORECASTING
SELF-APPOINTED FORECASTERS
METEOROLOGICAL DIRECTOR'S OPINIONS
(Special to thb ‘Star.’]
WELLINGTON, February 21. A suggestion from a branch of the 'New Zealand Farmers’ Union for seaiional weather forecasts was recently submitted to the new Director of Meteorology, Dr Kidson who, in his reply, discussed comprehensively th acience of forecasting. , , “ The only way to learn the methods of forecasting is to study text books and articles on meteorology,' stated Dr Kidson. “What the West Coast farmers want, 1 take it, is seasonal forecasts. Such are not attempted by the Meteorological Bureau in Australia, nor do I think the time is ripe for it to do so. In New Zealand there is still less to base seasonal forecasts on. “No doubt some of the gentlemen who spoke have seen references to forecasts issued in the Queensland newspapers by self-appointed forecasters. These gentlemen, I consider, exploit the farmer, some of them charging fees for their forecasts. Their forecasts are nsuallv fairly accurate according to their own interpretations of them after the event. I have never seen any that would bo of real use to the farmer before the event.” Mr Clement Wraggc’s forecasts, so far as one could gather, were based chiefly on what he believed to be a variation of rainfall with the state of spottedness of the sun. “ 1 hope before long to ho able to produce a. paper in which the connection between sunspots and New Zealand rainfall will be shown. Though there is such a connection, the effect is small, and is not always shown in individual vears by tho dominion as a whole. lii different districts the variation is still more erratic. Tho irregular variations are always greater than those due to sunspots. On the West Coast, the sunspots effect is probably tho reverse of what it is at most places. Unless I am mistaken, Mr Wragge always included a saving clause or two in his forecasts.” Dr Kidson proceeds in his letter to detail a sample of the typical forecast, covering three years, and forces home his point about the saving clauses which are said to be usual, by including one of his own on these lines: ‘ Unforseen developments may occur which may throw the forecast out by a year or two, one way or the other.” THE LIMIT TO FORECASTS. The head of tho meteorological office adds that he would much regret if any impression were gathered that he is antagonistic to the development of seasonal forecasting, but such forecasts, he urges, should be received with suspicion, unless grounds are given for them which will pass the usual scientific tests. “It is a strange thing that a prophet’s statements as to tho accuracy of his predictions are usually accepted by a largo proportion of his audience, “ There is no doubt that a good deal of work will have to be done in New Zealand before seasonal forecasts of much accuracy can ho issued. It is sometimes possible to indicate the course of tho weather for two or three days ahead, and this wo occasionally do. In general, however, and especially at this time of tho year when storms move with great rapidity, it is seldom safe to forecast for more than twentyfour to thirty hours ahead.
“The farmer should, I think,” concludes Dr Kidson. “ aim at receiving not only additional forecasts, but also fuller information as to actual conditions.”
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Evening Star, Issue 19797, 22 February 1928, Page 5
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564WEATHER FORECASTING Evening Star, Issue 19797, 22 February 1928, Page 5
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