WORLD'S POPULATION

Evening Star, Issue 19663, 16 September 1927, Page 10

WORLD'S POPULATION

VAST RECENT INCREASES THE PROBLEM OF MIGRATION An international conference is being held at Geneva to discuss the overgrowing problem of the rapid increase in the population of the world, and the parallel questions of the production of food and of the feasibility nr possibility of checking or controlling the rate of increase of births. A speaker at the conference. Dr J. M. East, a biologist from Harvard University, calculated that at the present rate of increase there would, within 100 years, ho _ 5,000,000,000 people on the globe. While such calculations arc necessarily somewhat speculative, the figures of the population at different past times have been more reliably calculated, and certainly the great increase in recent generations would seem to show that Dr East’s figure may not bo exaggerated. A well-known French scientist, Professor Maurice Cauvcl, calculates that there wore not more than 50,000,000 beings on tho earth at the beginning of the Christian ora, and that in tho year 1800 there were 600,000,000, Since that date the estimated increase in 125 years lias been reckoned at 1,000,000,000 giving a present population of some 1.600,000.000. A Gorman writer, Herr Alois Fischer, estimates that those figures are too low; he puts the population at some 125,000,000 more. Tho former chocks on the increase in population have in a large measure lost their power. Tho cause of declines were wars and especially the consequences of war, epidemics and hunger, which caused greater mortality by far than the wars themselves, and natural catastrophes such ns earthquakes and floods. But tho groat increase in the birth rate has far more than made good the losses in catastrophies; for instance, Japan in September, 1923, lost about 140,000 in the disastrous earthquake, but this huge figure represented only a fifth of tho annual surplus of births in Japan. WAR LOSSES ALREADY MADE UP

Not only have medical science and sanitation decreased the mortality from disease, but they have reduced it in more advanced countries in a more rapid ratio than that of the reduction in births which some of these countries have experienced. While the war quickly reduced the population of .Europe by 13,000,000 — about equal to l-140th of the population of tho world—whereas all tho wars of the 19th century caused losses of some 4.000,000 only, and the influenza epidemic of 1918 killed 20.000,000 throughout the world, especially in India, these losses were quickly made good, and in 1920 the populations increased in all continents, Britain has more than 2.000,000 more people than in 1914; Italy lias as many, and her population has a natural increase of 400,000 a year, the .surplus of births over deaths. There have been larger relative increases in North and South America and in tho Pacific.

The problem of Italy, which was referred to at the Population Conference at Geneva, is acute, and is likely to lead io much political disturbance. For years the emigration from Italy has been over 200,000, but this is far less than the annual increase in population, and Italy is rapidly filling, or is full. And her population must emigrate. Italy cannot, like America, create industries capable of supporting her surplus population. She has none of the indispensable raw materials of modern civilisation —coal, oil, minerals, and rubber. The United States quota laws allowed Italy 2,248 immigrants in 1924-25. In 1922-23 the immigrants totalled 42,845. PROBLEM OF ITALIAN EXPANSION.

Where can they go? The nearest field is the North African coast, especially the parts belonging to France, as Tunisia. France does not .send colonists there; on the contrary, thousands of Italians have migrated to Franco herself in recent years. The noted writer Signor Luigi \illari, in his book, ‘The Fascist Experiment,’ wrote: “There are rich countries belonging to countries whose inhabitants have no surplus population with which to people them, and who can only do so by means oi' emigrants from Italy herself. Why should not some of those colonies bo assignee! to Italy? Unless some satisfaction is given to Italy’s aspirations toward colonial expansion a. cause of international unrest will remain.” Signor Mussolini has, of course, turned Ids energies to the problem. “Italy lias sot to work more seriously than any other country to grapple with the problem of emigration and colonisation ” (says Dr E. Classen, a distinguished Swedish writer, in Jiis recent informative hook, ‘The New Colonial Policy”). “There exists a certain rivalry between Rome and Geneva regarding international questions of migration. Mussolini called an international conference at Romo in May, 1924, on immigration and emigration problems. The International Labor Bureau at Genova saw in the Italian conference an unwelcome competitor to its own committee.” “Italian Fascism,” says Dr Key, “ recognises no other principle than that of sacred egoism. Italy takes no notice of Geneva, but relies on its arm}’ and navy as a shield of security. The present distribution of the wealth of the world is an injustice which Italy insists on rectifying.” If the populations o! certain countries increase beyond what they can economically support, then, says Dr Key, war must finally come. If the economic maxima, arc exceeded, “ it is clear that no form of international pacifism can prevent the outbreak of now wars in the future.”