FREAK BRIDGE HAND

Evening Post, Volume CVIII, Issue 152, 24 December 1929, Page 7

FREAK BRIDGE HAND

STJIT DEALT TO EACH"

PLAYEK

MAY NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN

The "impossible" chance of a freak hand at auction bridge occurred in London recently, when four players of the Lucifer Golfing Society were playing. The four players were- Sir Charles Mandleberg, Mr. A. G. Eossiter, Mr. George dv Cros, and Sir Charles Sykes.

Mr. dv Cros, the dealer, dealt himself 13 diamonds, Sir Charles Sykes on his left 13 spades, Sir Charles Mandleberg 13 clubs, ana Mr. Eossiter 13 hearts. Commenting on this in the "Evening Standard," Hugh Elliot writes:

I have received several cuttings from newspapers giving an account of a hand played at the Carltou Hotel one evening recently. It is stated that the cards were shuffled by two players and cut by a third. When the deal was completed it was found that' each player had an entire suit. It was announced that the odds against this result are 2,235,197,406,895,366,368,301,----559,999 to 1. I have spent the intervening time in repeating this calculation, and in consequence I am now able to bear witness to. the extreme-accuracy of the figures. But what do they mean? They stretch across the paper and look imposing^ but I suspect that not a single one of those who have read them realises the full magnitude which they convey. I should be sorry also if the members of the Lucifer Golfing Society, who constituted the players, were to miss the full appreciation of the miracle which has taken place in their midst. I shall therefore endeavour to give a more complete idea of the rarity of this momentous event. THE NON-STOP DEAL. 'According to the latest scientific computation, human life first appeared upon the earth about 300,000 years ago. The present population of the earth ia reckoned at well under 2000 millions. Let us suppose that it has always been 2000 millions, ever since it first appeared upon the earth—which must obviously be a great exaggeration. Now we reach the following remarkable result:-— Suppose every human being that has ever lived upon the earth had spent his entire life dealing packs ■ of caTds. Everyone begins to deal the moment he is born, and only ceases at the moment of his death. Let us suppose that he .deals so fast as to make a complete deal every second of his life, minute after minute, hour after hour, day after day, year after year, until he has completed the span of human life. Let there be no pauses for eating, drinking, or sleeping. Every second of his entire life is to be spent upon the task; and every man, woman, and child that' has ever been born in vthe human race has done the same. ' Let us assume all this. Now, how often would there have been a deal in which the four hands each consisted of ait entire suit? The answer is surprising. The odds are about a hundred thousand to one against any such distribution having yet turned up, even once. On momentous historical occasions—Labout once in every 1000 years —a deal would have occurred in-which two hands each contained a complete suit; but the distribution of the other two hands would have been irregular. NEVERMORE. Beaders will now be able to appreciate somewhat more completely the extreme singularity of the event which occurred to .the members of the Lucifer Golfing Society. I trust that it will not be supposed that I am casting aspor- : sions on their veracity. Tar be it from me to express a doubt. Ido not question that their credibility is of an order commensurate with the fact to which they testify. Further, the hand which is stated to have been dealt is no more ' improbable than any other hand, named in advance. But.it may be safely prophesied that this particular deal will never occur again in the history of.'the human, race. Modern astronomy •tells us that the sun may expect to collide with another star in about a million million, million years. And, if card-playing continues at its present. amount, that event is likely to happen before another deal occurs in which each of the four players hold an entire suit. But we now come to the most startling fact of all. A number of other instances are recorded in which this oxact distribution has occurred in recent times. We are, bound, therefore, to ; accept one of three alternatives—either (1) we live in an -age of miracles, or (2) human testimony is unreliable, or (3) shuffling is very badly done. THE INCOMPLETE MIRACLE. Probably w« live in an ago of miracles, and I am often surprised to notice how complete the miracles always are. Take, for instance, the case of a deal in. which each hand has an entire suit, except that one card is misplaced, as, for instance, when there is .one spade among the hearts and one heart among the spades, the clubs and diamonds being entire in different hands. This would, as a miracle, be incomplete, and I have never yet heard a case reported. Yet iti frequency of occurrence is more than a thousand times as great as the case when each suit is entire. Why do we only hear of the complete cases? Why do we never hear of those other cases, a thousand times more common, which are complete except for one card interchanged with another? Perhaps it is the nature of miracles to bo complete. t I must, of course, not forget to add that all the figures given above assume that the pack has been perfectly shuffled. If the pack is improperly shuffled, as, for instance, in a goulash, these freak hands would be much more likely to occur; but then they would cease to be marvellous at the same time. If any particular distribution of cards is named, the frequency of its occurrence can be calculated theoretically. Its actual frequency can also be discovered by statistics. The actual and theoretical frequencies can then be compared, and the result furnishes a perfectly reliable test of the extent of shuffling that has been applied to the cards. '