THE TASK IN EUROPE

Dominion, Volume 37, Issue 238, 5 July 1944, Page 4

THE TASK IN EUROPE

Convergence On Germany PROBABLE TOUGH SPOTS President Roosevelt has received a statement from his service chiefs which pointed out that “the Allied forces in Europe are more than a match for the enemy and we can look forward to complete victory, but the war is not yet won. There is still a tough fight entailing heavy losses ahead.” The naked truth is that the Nazis have made beasts of themselves and their leaders know it, and know that victory to the Allies brings retribution to them. It is therefore unlikely that Germany will collapse prematurely. Hitler and his gang will defend themselves to the last German. If we assume, not without reason, that an early collapse of Germany' must be discounted, what then are the tasks ahead. Where will the tough, fighting occur? The situation at the moment is that the Allies have a powerful, army in Normandy. In Italy the Allies are within 20 miles of Leghorn and continue to advance. In Russia the Germans are falling back in disorder on Minsk. Finland will probably collapse despite German efforts to prop her up. Furthermore, the Allies are in a position to land huge forces in another part of northern France, iu the Bay of Biscay, in southern France, and in Greece. , It cannot b.e denied that there is reason for. cautious optimism. Nevertheless, the German armies are still intact. Moreover, in spite of the German loss of air supremacy their factories still operate and their vast reserves are still largely intact. Some measure of the task ahead may be obtained' from the distance that Allied armies must go before the situation develops when Hitler must throw in his hand. In Great War I fear of allowing the war into German territory urged‘the Germans into premature armistice. The trick was successful, and left Germany with sufficient to pave the way for Great War 11. It is doubtfu] if the Allied terms this time will be light enough to encourage a premature armistice. One may assume that the only situation calculated to cause Hitler to admit failure will be disastrous military operations in the heart of Germany. From the beaches of Normandy it is nearly 700 miles to Berlin. From Minsk it is 600 miles. The ■ Allied armies in Italy are 600 miles from Berlin as the Liberator flies, but a mountain rampart intervenes. Approaches to Germany. An advance on Berlin from Normandy is beset with many military obstacles. The line of the Seine and the Yonne rivers provide a prelude to tougher fighting further east. The rivers Meuse, Moselle and Rhine undoubtedly provide the hardest task. The Rhine has always been military obstacle number one in western Europe. Moreover, further east there are other river lines such as the Weser line and Elbe aud its tributaries. Apart from these river obstacles, the going is easy. Man-made defences, however, will certainly be encountered in this the enemy’s “twenty-five.” An advance into Germany via the southern portion of France encounters so many geographical obstacles it is almost out of the question —Switzerland, the Jura Mountains, the Vosges Mountains 'and the Black Forest. In Great War I Allied armies in France forced a decision rather on account of the collapse of the Balkans than on their own standing alone. We should therefore expect very hard fighting in France. These problems will extend the greatest military leaders of the present age. In Italy the Allies will shortly come up against the classic Italian line of defence, the Pisa-Rimini line. This natural defence line is sited where the .Appennines swing west from the Adriatic across Italy. A mountain block SO miles thick bars the way to the lowlands forming the valley of the Po. It is most unlikely that the Germans will not offer determined resistance along this line. In fact, lack of resistance here would be tantamount to an admission of serious signs of collapse elsewhere. We should therefore assume that the Allied armies advancing up the west side of Italy will meet delay along the Pisa-Rimini line. Determined resistance here could hold up the Allies in western Italy for many • weeks. The Pisa-Rimini line can be best turned from the Adriatic. The narrow coastal lowlands of the Adriatic broaden out at Rimini into the flat valley of the Po, 160 miles from south to north and 250 miles wide to the west. An Allied break-through here’would turn ths whole line. One would thus expect the centre of gravity of our pressure to change over to the armies of the Adriatic at this juncture. The Russians have broken through round Minsk, north of the Pripet marshes. Minsk is almost due cast of Berlin. Tlie country between the two cities is flat and is very suitable for vast tank operations. The river Vistula provides the main natural military obstacle, while most <>f the rivers Vest of the Vistula run east to west and do not provide . good obstacles. Provided the Russians can maintain a preponderance in men and equipment an advance beyond Minsk could be rapid. Nevertheless, there are strategical factors which must slow down the advance after a line is reached from Danzig to Breslau. By then the Russians will have uncovered a flank of 300 miles resting on the Carpathians. So long as the Germans continue to hold Hungary this very definite threat to the Russian flank must introduce an element of risk into (be last 200 miles to Berlin. It would thus seem that upon the success of tlie Italian operations depends the chance of the Allies bursting into the Balkans by the back door in time to offset the German threat to Russian opera- ■ tions with Berlin as their goal. In view of these facts it would be too much to assume that Germany will be beaten this year. A more sober outlook would suggest that by November tlie war in Europe can reach a stage where German defeat is close at hand. —E.A.A.