THE WAR IN EUROPE

Dominion, Volume 37, Issue 230, 26 June 1944, Page 4

THE WAR IN EUROPE

Grim Outlook For Germany PATTERN TAKES SHAPE

Despite the fact that the European campaigning season is as yet only a few weeks old, it is already possible to discern the shape of the pattern forming on the screen that hides the future. Every individual operation, such for instance as Normandy, tends to become obscured as it develops. If, however, one ceases to examine details and scans the general horizon, it is possible to obtain a’picture from the jig-saw pieces. These pieces of the European war at present cover a wide area. They include Normandy, Finland, Italy and the Russian front. They include the Maquis and flying bombs. They include that vast reservoir of spare parts, whole machines of war, and supplies beyond enemy interference in America. From these scattered areas the jig-saw picture of war is in process of assembly over the face of Europe. 'The Allies now occupy nearly 1090 square miles of French soil in Normandy. They are on the brink of obtaining a first-class port at Cherbourg. Rommel’s strategy and operational tactics have been forced to follow the will of the Allied commanders. It is likely that German reserves have been sufficiently immobilized by air raids and internal sabotage by the Maquis so that German initiative is a thing of the past. Loss of initiative inevitably means loss of the battle. The general pattern in Normandy is that Rommel may find a million men boxed off by the broken bridges of the Seine and the Loire. He is committed to battles with odds against him unless he can gain command of the air, resolve the Maquis, and obtain unlimited reinforcements. There is indication that the Allies are winning the race of supplies and reinforcements in Normandy. The sea routes have beaten the land routes. When this corner of the pattern is subsequently fitted into the main piece it is possible that spectacular results may follow.

As yet the pattern of events in France is incomplete. The Allies have it in their power to land other forces as great as, if not greater than the Normandy force. This must cause German leaders severe headaches. Whatever use they make of their by no means inexhaustible reserves it leaves a gap open to the Allies. If the Grmans block us in Normandy, it opens the door elsewhere and vice versa. This is a condition which does not w.in battles for German commanders. The Eastern Front.

The Russians have almost liquidated the Finnish threat. This leaves their northern flanks secure, and upsets German operations. Finland, however, -is only a tiny piece of a huge jig-saw element. It is staging a sideshow necessary to ensure the formation of the pattern of operations in the eastern theatre of war. Once Finland is knocked out the main pattern can develop rapidly. Already Russia is making a powerful thrust in White Russia. The Germans must decide whether this is the main thrust. The use of their inadequate reserves in Russia depends on a correct, guess. The Russians, however, are forming the pattern, and they can decide where and how it will be arranged. The outlook is again grim from the German viewpoint. Few people would care to arrange the pieces of a jig-saw puzzle when blindfolded, yet that is what the Germans must do. The odds are against them. Possibly the pattern In Italy is less grim from the German point of view than elsewhere. The reason is that Italy is a definite pattern whose limitatio'ns are already known. The geography of Italy limits the scope of our successful armies. It would appear that eventually we shall occupy all Italy, but the Alps, with their bottle-neck outlets, do not make Italy an ideal base from which to invade either Germany or France. Nevertheless, this jig-saw piece fits nicely into the general pattern already discernible. Italy provides an ideal base for air operations against Germany. Military operations from Italy into Germany will remain a threat, but till the fall of Germany is imminent they will take second place. The occupation of Italy does provide a threat to German occupation of the Balkans and Greece. It will immediately cause the Balkan jig-saw pieces to start to arrange themselves to the benefit of the Allies.

Flying bombs are a significant part of the European problem in that-they afford an insight into the desperate state of mind of the leaders of Germany. Despite the fact that all their previous secret weapons had misfired, they were ready to put reliance on a secret weapon which depended for full 'exploitation on command of the air. The German people would apepar to have a disillusioned outlook now the flying bomb has failed. This state of mind paves the way to stunned recognition of the fact that their -armies will be compelled to leave first Finland, then Norway, then Greece and the Balkans, and then France. When they come out of their stupor Germany will have lost the war. —E.A.A.