The Dominion. MONDAY, MARCH 13, 1939. INTERESTING POPULATION TRENDS

Dominion, Volume 32, Issue 143, 13 March 1939, Page 8

The Dominion. MONDAY, MARCH 13, 1939. INTERESTING POPULATION TRENDS

An increase of 17,268 in the population of New Zealand is iccorded in a report just issued by the Census and Statistics Depaitment covering the 1937-38 period, ended March 31 last. J his repie-, sents a percentage increase of 1.09, the highest since 1930-31. On the face of it this appears to be an encouraging trend, but the Government Statistician’s analysis of the figures suggests that it would be too much to conclude that the alarming drift of the past lew years toward a stationary population has been definitely arrested. 1 here has been a rise in the birth-rate, and, he says, population growth will be assured if the rate in future years reaches, and is maintained, at higher levels. “But,” he adds, “even if this takes place, the effects of the low increase ratio of the more immediate past will remain for many years.” The movement of the population toward the higher age-groups has been striking. In 20 years’ time, it is estimated, there will be more than 20,000 fewer persons aged 20 to 24 years than there were ot those ages in 1936. The economic significance of this, and its bearing on taxation and the Social Security schemes, should not be oveilooked. In 1887 the birth-rate was 32.09 a 1000; in 1937, 50 years later, it was down to 17.29. “If,” says the Government Statistician, “the rate obtaining in 1887 had been recorded in 1937 on the present population, there would have been approximately 48,300 children born in the Dominion during the latter year, instead of only 26,014.” In the past our relatively high rate of natural increase was attributable in part to the remarkably low death-rate, then, as now, the lowest recorded anywhere in the world. But no further substantial fall in the death-rate can be expected, with the result that while we will have fewer young people, we will have more old people. Another analysis shows the proportion of births born to parents in the various age-groups. There is a marked drop at ages over 30, indicating the tendency toward small families. In 1925 the average size of a family was 2.96; now it is 2.47. Again, the postponement of the first child is reflected in a comparison showing that in 1914 the proportion of births in the first year of marriage was 52.95, the latest figure is 44.09. A much more satisfying condition is seen in the growth of the Maori population, which in 1926 was 63,670. in 1936, 82,326, and on March 31 last, 86,767. With more systematic and thorough health supervision this progress should be rapidly expanded. As to the European birth-rate, though the recent rise is a favourable sign, a very substantial increase will be necessary to ensure a steady growth of population by natural increase. Ihe position is still far from satisfactory.