The Dominion. FRIDAY, JUNE 10, 1921. POPULATION AND PROGRESS

Dominion, Volume 14, Issue 219, 10 June 1921, Page 4

The Dominion. FRIDAY, JUNE 10, 1921. POPULATION AND PROGRESS

Although an analysis of the census results will be possible only when the principal figures are available in complete detail, some interesting facts are disclosed in the preliminary returns already P ub ' fished. In regard to the rate of increase in its population, for instance, the Dominion makes a clistinctly good showing. Tho United States is frequently mentioned as a country which is building up its population at a phenomenal rate, but on any reasonable basis of comparison the proportionate inciease in this country is much greater. During the past decade, the population of the Dominion has increased relatively more than one-third as fast again as that of the United States. The American census taken towards the end of last year showed a population increase during ten years of 14.9 per cent. The census lately taken in this country shows an increase during ten years of rather more than twenty per cent. A considerably greater increase is disclosed for the. past five years than in the preceding five years—the increases are 117,525 from 1916 to 1921 as compared with j 90,981 from 1911 to 1916. No doubt, however, the comparison would have favoured the earlier census period but for the absence of many thousands of soldiers on foreign service when the censu’ of 1916 was taken. The position is best gauged by taking the figures for the past decade, and the increase for that period—2oB,so6 —must be regarded as satisfactory when account is taken of the extent to which the war militated against the growth of population. The war cost the Dominion 17,000 men and was responsible for a falling-off in marriages and in births which heavily reduced the nature,! increase of population. In addition there was an almost complete suspension of immigration during the war years. Allowing for tho operation' of these adverse factors, the train of the past ten years compares bv no moans unfavourably with that of tho preceding decade. Tho comparative figures and percentages are shown in the following fable: —

NEW ZEALAND POPULATION. Increases ten years. 1911 1.008,468 235,749 (30 per cent.) 1921 1,216,974 208,506 (20 per cent.)Tho falling-off in the rate of increase is smaller than. might have been expected in the circumstances. With such an increase in the period which’ included the years of the world Avar it is possible to anticipate a very rapid growth in the population of the Dominion as soon as the present’ temporary obstacles to immigration are removed. In the extent to which they throw light on the distribution of population, the preliminary ichurns disclose a much less satisfactory state of affairs. It is already, apparent that in spite of the wide extension of soldier settlement in recent years, the cities and towns of the Dominion are still absorbing an undue share of its population as compared with the rural areas. We published yesterday a return, prepared by the Government Statistician. which divides tho Doihinion into 25 group areas and shows the growth or decline of population in each area. Four of these areas include the main centres —Wellington) Auckland, Christchurch, and Dunedin—in each case grouped with a few adjoining counties. It is a striking fact that these four metropolitan areas are credited between them with more than half the total increase in the population of the Dominion for the census period. The total increase is 117.525. The increase in the metropolitan areas is 62,155, leaving only 55,370 as the Increase in all other parts of the Dominion, Of this 55.370 a very great part will, of course, bo credited to boroughs and towns other than the main centres, and the final figures may show that the country’ has faved even worse in comparison with tho towns than durinir the previous census period. The table which follows shows the comparative increase of population in counties and boroughs from 1011 to 1016: — Counties. Boroughs. 1916 501.959 585.866 1911 496,779 505.598 1916, increase ... 4.480 79.708 (.9 p.c.) (15.7 p.e.) A direct comnarison on this basis cannot be made until the figures of the present census are disclosed in detail, but it is already apparent that the tendency of population to concentrate in the towns to the neglect of rural areas has continued. While the increase in the metropolitan areas averages nearly 13 per cent., and in the case of Auckland and adjacent counties is 20 per cent., a number of rural areas show a relatively insignificant increase, and in some instances a decline. Even in the Poverty’ Bay region, with its enormous area of land awaiting development or in process of being opened up, the population increase for the census period is only 12 per cent. A more satisfactory state of affairs is disclosed in some areas, notablv Ihe Waikato and the Bav of Plenty, which are credited with increases of respectively 27 and 36 nor cent., but, even in such cases as these, though rural development is proceeding, much of file population increase is in boroughs and towns. As they stand, the returns plainly 1 indical® that the population of the

Dominion is not distributed as effectively as it ought to be, and undoubtedly this fact will be even more clearly emphasised when the figures are completed in detail. There is promising scope in this country for the expansion of secondary industries, and progress on these lines of course connotes an increase of urban population. It remains, however, the. fundamental condition of national prosperity that the lands of the Dominion should be effectively developed and occupied by an increasing population. The extent to which as a community wo are economically dependent upon primary production could not be better illustrated than in the circumstances of the existing depression. It is not more obvious that this serious, though temporary, check to prosperity is due to the weakening of oversea markets for primary produce than that recovery must bo governed largely by an 'improvement in the returns nn export trade. It will be at least many years before these root conditions are appreciably altered. Tho Dominion certainly ought to be manufacturing a larger proportion of the raw materials produced within its borders, and the enterprising extension of secondary industries will hasten the return of prosperity. In view of the extent to which the country is and will bo dependent upon primary industries, however, it is supremely important that idle lands should be brought into use and that lands already in use should be further subdivided and more intensively farmed. Progressing on these lines, the Dominion will not only develop its best resources, but will establish an increasing margin of security against adverse conditions of external trade. These benefits will not bo, realised in full, however, until the present trend and distribution of population are to some extent modified. It is an essential condition of prosperity that the energies of a larger share of the population should be concentrated on rural development and the expansion of primary industries, and every effort ought to bo made, bv the judicious control of immigration and in other ■ways, to effect this much-needed change.