PARTY POLITICS AGAIN

Dominion, Volume 12, Issue 227, 19 June 1919, Page 5

PARTY POLITICS AGAIN

RETURN OF LEADERS

THE TRUCE TO BE ENDED

A FORECAST OF EVENTS

Mo3t people must have been surprised to read in the cable news yesterday morning a message stating that Sir Joseph Ward was coming back to New Zealand at once, but that Mr. Massey would follow later. As a matter of' fact Sir Joseph Ward has almost certainly left England ore, this,' And ho, expects to bo back in this country on July 22. It is not impossible that II r. Massey may yet be returning by.the same steamer, and that Sir Joseph Ward is merely -making tho trip across the Atlantic a_ little earlier than necessary. By catching ,a later steamer Mr. Massey. might bo still able to connect at Vancouver with the steamer which would bring Tiim to New Zealand by July 22. . • No.,particular significance need be attached, to the fact that Sir Joseph Ward » is leaving before Mr. Massey. It is understood that Sir Joseph Waid'has done all that is required of him, but that Mr. Massey still has somo work to do. But Mr. Massey is very anxious , to return, aa won as possible. It is probable that there will be rumours to , tho. effect that Mr. Maesey is,not coming back at all, but he is most certainly coming back as eoon as ho finds it possible. . VAy eoon after July 22 there may be .events of explosive suddenness, in politics ■ in New Zealand. It is current talk that Sir Joseph Ward and Me. Massey are definitely, estranged, and th'at all hope ot continuance of the. coalition is out of the question while theso two gentlemen remain in command oi the two parties. Sir Joseph Ward is understood to Kavo decided to revert to party politics at the earliest possible moment, and is said to' be hopeful of ousting Mr. Massey from office. The question has still to be decided, however, as to whether Sir Joseph Ward can beat Mr. Mnssey in a division in the House. The Reform Party claims that he cannot,' that they can win with Sir Frederick Lang, who is a member ot the part}', in the Speaker's chair, and even that they can win with Mr. Malcolm, also a member of the Eeform Party, in the chair (when the House is in Com. mittee), although in such an event it inight be necessary for- Mr. Malcolm to give hie casting vote. The Speaker has never voted in Committee,>and he,has al.ways adopted the view that he ought not to do so. This is the reason for the differeuce in the calculation in the two cases. It is not expected that any of tho Liberal Ministers at present in the Government will vote for Mr. Massey a<> against Sir Joseph Ward, and no reckoning of any of their votes is taken in the count on which the Reform prediction is based. It is suspected, however, that at least two of the Ministers on the Liberal • side of the Cabinet are not in favour with Sir Joseph Ward nowadays, and that still another of the Liberal Minis-

ters tliihfcs that the coalition ought to bo preserved if possible. It is assumed, nevertheless, m- the estimates of voting strength referred to that these gentlemen will all vote for Sir Joseph Ward when tho trial of strength comes. As it ,is certain that Sir Joseph Ward is going' to make another bid for office as head of a Liberal Government, 'his first act of importance will be to withdraw from-the coalition and to "denounce the armistice" which'has been in.existence for four- years. Automatically this. will mean the retirement from the Government of the Liberal Ministers,. and will leave Mr. Massey with a number of seats in the Cabinet to fill./' This, it is considered, will give him an opportunity to allay some of the disaffection caused, in his party through dissatisfaction with •the personnel of the Reform section, ot the Cabinet- as it is constituted at present. Then his plan.will be to go to the country,, if' he should snrvive the fateful division,: with his new policy, and; a, promise : ofßeconstruction of. the-Minis-. try in the event of his being returned to power. ' ■■ ' v • . The greatest uncertainty in alLfhe predictions that can be made is as to the result of the division on the motion of noconfidence that it is believed will be moved by Sir Joseph Ward. It is presumed that all tho members of the new "Progressive" Party will vote with Mr.; Massey. It is quite certain that none of them will vote for Sir Joseph Ward, but there may bo a possibility that some of them vwillnot tremble to vote at.all. If this should happen calculations may be upset. On the other hand thire are some old Liberals in the House who are not nearly such keen party men as they used to be, and the Whips on their side may have difficulties with them. It is known as a fact that some of them did not favour tho resolution passed at a caucua of the party some time ago declaring ■for a separation of the Liberal Party from the coalition. ■ It is not impossible 'that there will bo quite a number _ of surprises when the division lists are counted. .

If Sir Joseph Ward 6hould bo lucky enough to win on a division" he will Vkivo H most precarious tenure of office. Hβ cannot nave a hope of winning without the votes of all the mombers of theLabour Party, and. those members are pledged to vote against any*. Government out a Labour Government. They would vote- out Mr. Massey, but if their words have any meaning they would also vote nut Sir "Joseph Ward. Under these circumstances a short session and an early appeal to the country seem probable.