The Dominion FRIDAY, JUNE 13, 1919. BETTER NEWS ON PEACE PROSPECTS

Dominion, Volume 12, Issue 222, 13 June 1919, Page 4

The Dominion FRIDAY, JUNE 13, 1919. BETTER NEWS ON PEACE PROSPECTS

Several of to-day's cablegrams are of good promise as/they bear upon peace prospects. This applies particularly to a Paris message which states, in reference to the proceedings of the Council of Four, that French opposition to the revision of the financial and reparation clauses of the German Treaty has prevailed, and, that- the Treaty is practically unamended. It is excellent news, if true, that the . principal Allied Powers a-re taking _ a firm stand and decisively rejecting the counsels of weakness ; that have of late been current. ,Those who have considered the facts of the position calmly and without prejudice are bound to conclude that there is nothing to be gained by. attempting to gild or sugar-coat the pill Germany is called upon to swallow. Possibly some few details of the Treaty are open to modification. For instance, while it is undoubtedly advisable that the question of determining the trital amount of reparation Germany is to pay should lie reserved for much more leisurely consideration than can be given, it prior to the completion of peace preliminaries, it is perhaps a policy of doubtful wisdom to attempt to spread the 'reparation payments over as long a period as thirty years. . In the main, • however, and certainly in all its vital features, the Treaty is justly drawn. To modify it in any material particular would be to reward the criminal at the expense of his victims, and to unsettle, perhaps fatally, the foundations of future neace. The interests of whole world demand a prompt and uncompromising settlement. with Germany, because it is only with such a settlement accomplished that the forces of reconstruction can be set into really effective operation. If the attitude of the Council of Four in regard to this primary and vital necessity is correctly defined, the prospect of an early and satisfactory peace is appreciably brighter than it seemed to be a little time ago.

it is a striking fact that the news of an uncompromising stand by the Allies is accompanied by reports of a.sweeping change of tone in Germany. Apparently it is realised that the great campaign of bluff and beguilemenfc in which most of the active factions in Germany have of; late been co-operating has failed. At all events, it is now stated that the German newspapers arc showing alarm-at the consequences of refusal to .sign the Treaty, and that the civilian population unitedly demands peace: In a great measure this change from the alternating threats and whining pleas of recent days is no doubt to be attributed to a realisation that the 'Allies are resolute, and are"not to be bluffed or befooled. No thinking German is unaware of -the cardinal facts emphasised the other day by Str Doug : las Haio—that Germany's surrender in November was abject and irrevocable, and that it would be far easier to go to Berlin now than it would have been in November. It Fccms very probable, however, that factors of internal politics are also tending to force the-hand' of the German Government in the matter of the unconditional submission the Allies in any ease are able to enforce. _ At various times since the armistice there haye_ been reports suggesting that it might be a very difficult matter to hold Germany together under such a Government as is now in office or is immediately offering. Separatist movements, inspired by opposition to the dominant authority of Prussia, have been more or less in evidence in South Germany, and also in the Western Provinces, where the establishment of a .Rhenish Republic is now said to be an accomplished fact. As matters stand it seems possible that the German Government feels it necessary to make ternis speedily with the Allies lest Germany should fall to pieces in its hands. A German newspaper, the Vnssische, Zcitinuj, is credited to-day with the statement that failure to - sign the Treaty will mean not only foreign occupation and a. close blockade, but. that the coast provinces will proclaim themselves separate Republics, ''which will be the end of Germany." It is difficult to regard theso observations as camouflage intended only to deceive. They look

like the expression of a genuine fear.

During the last week or two French commentators and others have shown scepticism' in regard to the creation of a Rhenish Republic, but such views are considerably discounted by _ the definite announcement that it has been established. Whether it is established on a basis likely to be permanent is meantime an open question, but there is some evidence at least that its founders are animated' by other motives than a desire to delude the Allies with a false'and illusory demonstration of separatist- tendencies within the German Confederation. As long ago as the middlo of March, for instknee, the Berlin special correspondent of the well-informed Manchester Guardian observed that it might be doubted whether the people of the Rhinela-nd were really unanimous in their resolve to stick to Prussia, or even to the German Empire.

As a fact (he.added) very strong forces in those provinces are making for separation. The powerful Catholic interest, tho financiers, and a largo section of the middle classes are bent on severing the. Prussian connection, which seems to be upheld by the Majority Socialists and a section of the manufacturers only. True, those demanding an autonomous Rhenish* Republic loudly protest their fidelity to Germany as distinct from the Prussian connection, but this protestation should probably • not be taken too literally.

It does not seem unduly credulous to believe that the hardships and resultant dissatisfaction occasioned in the industrial provinces of Western Germany ma,y have so strengthened the party which favours separation as to turn the scale decisively in its tavour.. At its face value, in any case, the delayed message which today chronicles the proclamation of the Rhenish Republic points to an internal political split calculated to dispose finally of the claim of the present German. Government to speak for a united Germany in its efforts to weaken the Allied peace terms. Any uncertainty in the matter rests solely upon the fact that fhe new Republic nas yet to demonstrate its ability to maintain its separate autonomy. The precise significance of the event will appear only when fuller facts are made available, but the possibilities raised are of_ the utmost importance. From the incomplete particulars in hand it seems likely that the new Republic includes the provinces of Hanover, Westphalia, Hesse-Nassau, and' Rhenish Prussia. -These provinces, all of' them hitherto included in Prussia, have an aggregate area of about 40,000 square miles, not far short of a third of the total area of that State. Their importance is vastly greater than a mere comparison of area would indicate owing to the fact that they are preeminently the industrial and manufacturing region _of Germany. Weighty considerations also arise, of course, from their geographical situation, between North-Eastern France and Belgium and the rest of Germany. The suggestion of the German peace delegate, Leinert, that "the Hanoverian movement" is to be attributed to British diplomacy probably is more flattering than accurate. But a genuine move by the Rhenish provinces to establish themselves permanently, either as an independent entity or as an autonomous unit of a- reconstructed German federation, would no doubt be welcomed'cordially by all the Allied nations. Apart from the fact that it would make for speedy acceptance of the Allied' terms, this development would greatly improve the prospects of future peace. It would be a long step towards destroying Prussian hegemony in Germany, and there -are tho best reasons for believing that Prussian militarism will not be finally overthrown until Prussia has been reduced to a subordinate position in the federation over which she has too long been supreme.