WAR AND VITAL STATISTICS

Dominion, Volume 11, Issue 186, 26 April 1918, Page 8

WAR AND VITAL STATISTICS

« THE FALLING BIRTHRATE PLIGHT OF CENTRAL POWERS — "V In liis presidential address to tno Royal Statistical .Society recently, Sir Bernard Mallet referred to the overwhelming importance of the whole question of racial advance or decline, on which the fa-to of nations so largely depends, and to the damage which tho present struggle must inilict on thin and other nations. Addressing himself to the indications which came under his notice a 3' .Uegistrar-Geiieral i>f Births, Deaths, and Marriages, ami dealing with the effect of war on marriages, he said that the numbers of marriages increased steadily from 260,544 in 1909 to 236,583 in 1913, and that this increase-was continued in the two first quarters of 1914. Although the increase in tho latter half of I9M was smaller than that in the earlier half, during tho second, third, and fourth quarters of 1915 and the first quarter of 1916 a sudden and abnormal riso occurred, and war marringes swelled the- totals until they reached "record" heights. Thereafter the increuso in marriages continued, but with diminished force, and by tho third quarter of 1916 the numbers had fallen below the , average. ; "Crudely stated." he declared, "the war has resulted in 200.Q00 people being married between August, 1914, and June, 1917, who in the ordinary course would not have married." The mavriage rate for 1915 was the highest recorded—l 9.4; tho previous maximum —17.9—was in 1853. Alluding to tho marriage statistics in belligerent countries, he said that in Hungary the effect of the wor had been _ that moro than 600,000 people who in the ordinary course would Cave married had not doiio so. In Prussia, Bavaria, Saxony, Hesse, Hamburg, and Bremen, six States containing more than 80 per cent, of the German population, the total number or marriages in 1913 was 434,103, and in 1914 the number was 392,053, a decreaso of nearly 10 per cent., in spite of a great number of war marriages during tlio first month of tho war. From figures available, in Saxony, compared with the last year of peace, the decrease ras about 35- per cent., in Hamburg 24.5 per cent., in Bremen 37.6 per cent., and m Berlin 21.6 per cent., and he pre-

sinned that the decrease in the country was greater than in the town.

Comparing the statistics, the President said that tho very notablo difference was not difficult to account for. In Germany tho whole population of military age was mobilised; in England war marriages were stimulated by generous allowances and pensions. On tho introduction of compulsory service larger numbers of men of marriageable age wero lighting abroad, and the conditions wore beginning to approach those of the Germans, the influence of which could be seen in the birth-rate, although the comparison was wholly in favour of this country.

Loss of Potential Livos. The loss of potential lives to the belligerent countries by the decrease in the numbers of children born was, perhaps, tho most important effect produced by tho war on vital statistics. It was first felt at the end of April, 1915, and it would continue until nine months after tho termination of hostilities and demobilisation was more or less completed. In England and Wales, in the three years 1911-13, the decrease in tho births amounted to 4.2 per cent, in numbers as compared with 1908-10, and represented a birth-rate of 6.3; in Scotland tho decrease in numbers was 4.9 per cent., and 5.6 per. cent, in the birth-rate; in Ireland the decrease was 1.3 per cent, in numbers, and 1.2 in tho rate. In Germany, whore the decrease had been much more rapid of late years, tho decline was 5 per cent, in numbers and 9 per cent, in rate, and in Hungary 1.1 and 3.5. From these figures it was apparent that the United Kingdom had suffered far less than had Germany in this vitally important point.

Tlie United Kingdom, the speaker stated, had lost by the fall in births over 500,000 potential lives, approximately _ 10,000 per million of the population. Germany had lost in the same, period 2,600,000, approximately 40,000 per annum. Hungary had lost 1,500,000, approximately, 40,000 por million. At tho outbreak of war the population of the Central Empires was about two and a half times as great as that of tho United Kingdom; their losses of births had apparently been ten times as great. The poorer classes in this country had never experienced more favourable conditions, but the Germans, if all indications were to bo believed, had suffered to euoh an extent as to affect seriously tho general health of the population. It remained to be seen what effect on our birth-rate would be produced by a winter, if that should bo before us, in which supplies of fuel and food were greatly curtailed.

As regards infant mortality, the rate during 1914-16 had been lower both in the United Kingdom and in Germany than in any precious period of like duration, butithe summer mortality in 1917 appeared to have been extraordinarily high in several German cities in spite of the groat organised efforts made in Germany to save infant life, and the German rate all through remained at some 50 per cent, liigher than in this country. The rate recorded in the United Kingdom in 1916 was tho lowest on record.

In speaking of the deaths during the period of the war the speaker said that he had to distinguish between civilians and members of the armed forces. Gennrally there was a nwked rise in civilian deaths in 1915, followed by a fall to below pre-war numbers in 1916. Ho had paid some attention to the causes of death, and there was a decrease owing to tho restrictions in tho output of alcoholic liquors, although it would be unwise to place too much reliance on that fact.