PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 11, Issue 139, 1 March 1918, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

An opinion seems to bo gaming ground in the Allied capitals that Japan should take military action in Manchuria and Siberia, and it is suggested to-day that she is likely at least to occupy Manchuria, but the issues involved are exceedingly complex. It seems to be far from certain, as matters stand, that a big Japanese army landed on the eastern seaboard of the Russian Asiatic- provinces would be effectively placed or could be usefully employed. There may, of course, be serious need for such a measure of intervention as would suffice to suppress and checkmate German conspiracy and intrigue, but there is no likelihood at present of-Japan finding in Asiatic Russia a field in which sho could usefully employ anything like her full military strength with advantage to herself and to her Allies. The danger that Germany may open a highway into Asia through Russian territory is real and will remain in sight until she has been compelled to abandon tho western provinces of Russia which she now occupies, but it relates rather to tho future than to the present. The danger is that the war may leave her with such a hold on Russia as would enable her to prosecute designs of eastward expansion by a new lino of advance, and this danger will not be met or repelled simply by a Japanese invasion of Manchuria and Siberia.

Here as elsewhere tho ultimate fate of Germany's aggression must depend upon the aggregate action of the Allies in the war, a fact emphasised by Mr. Balfour in a statement reported to-day that the British Government intends that the fate of the Russian Provinces, Rumania, and Armenia shall be settled at the final peace, despite any peace which may now be enforced on Russia and Rumania. In considering the possibilities of Japanese military, action in Asiatic Russia it must not be overlooked 'that such a campaign would mak'o consider-, able demands on shipping tonnaee which now is or might be usefully employed in supplying Allied needs elsewhere, somo of it in transport services connected with other Allied campaigns. It would bo necessary to make out a very definite case for military action in Asiatic Russia to justify' such 'a diversion of shipping as would be entailed. Certainly,, it would he a futile policyTto detail shipping to transport and supply an army which could only marie time when it had reached its destination, and it has yet to appear that Japanese forces in Manchuria and Siberia could do more than this. Tho Paris Temps has said that it is no longer sufficient to police Siberia and that war must be waged there, but precisely what lino of reasoning has led to these conclusions is not disclosed. , ... ' * * * # The necessity of policing Siberia is fairly plain, but in what manner a Japanese army in Eastern Siberia would bo enabled to checkmate Germany's designs is not apparent. _ It has, of course, a material bearing on tho position that the Allies have not taken up an attitude unfriendly to Russia and seem at present unlikely to do so. If there were prospects of the Japanese being able to stimulate and promote Russian organisation, tho case would bo decidedly different. But although a formor member of M. Kerensky's Cabinet has declared that the brutal question is whether Germany shall organise Russia against the Allies, or the a Allies organise Russia against Germany, the only possible answer to this "moving appeal," as it was called in a cablegram, seems to be that for the timo being Russia is in a state which dooms atits inception any attempt at organisation.

Apart from the fact that the Germans aro pressing forward in their invasion regardless of the requests of tho Bolshevik Government for a composition \yhich would set a period to hostilities, news relating to Russia ancf Eumania throws little new light upon the situation, and some of it is decidedly contradictory. For instance, embittered feeling between the Austrian and Rumanian delegates is said to be impeding progress in peace negotiations, but a message by \way of America suggests that Austria has flatly declined to take further military action against either Russia or Rumania. The fact that Germany has refrained thus far from forcing the issue with Rumania, may seem to lend a certain amount of colour to the latter story, but no doubt popular unrest and discontent in the Dual Monarchy oppose much more serious obstacles, to the development of German plans than the sentiments of its rulers.

An enemy offensive in the Western theatre is still being talked about, but it seems distinctly probable that the expectation mentioned by a correspondent at British Headquarters that fighting on a 'big; scale will open at the beginning of March may be verified. The prediction is likely enough to be verified even if the enemy does not attempt aggression. It was only by retreating from tho Somme area in March last year that he evaded an Allied offensive in that month.