GERMANY'S RESOURCES

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2921, 6 November 1916, Page 4

GERMANY'S RESOURCES

AN ANALYSIS OF MAN I"OWER (By Mr. Jußtice Chapman.) Many sets of figures which have been published have proved misleading. I think, however, that certain facts respecting tho population and manpower of Germany to be used as a baFis for calculations may bo taken to he incontrovertible provided tho inferences which thoy suggest arc not drawn without clearly appreciating the dispuable elements which have to bo considered. I propose here to display the figures, point out the sources of doubt, amj leave the reader to make his own calculations :— (a). Population of Germany (Wnitaker's Almanack) 64,000,000 (b). Deduct women, SO per cent 32,000,000 Males 32,000,000 Deduct thoso under 15 and abovo'6B years of age, approximately 50 per cent 16,000,000 (c). Males between thoso ages 16,000,000 (d). Deduct as physically incapable 25 per cent 4,000,000 Capable males 12,000,000 (a). Deduct killed and wounded 4,000,000 Remaining capable 8,000,000 Required to defend the lines 4,500,000 Remaining capable .:... 3,500,000 Deduct men momentarily on sick list or otherwise incapacitated, over 6 per cent, of 8,000,000 500,000 Ultimate reserve: i.e., Germans now capable of ' Rearing arms not' yet embodied 3,000,000 ' There are obvious errors in the above, admitted in order to. make the figures simpler, but thoso'errors are on both sides, ana do not result in understating the ultimate reserve thus: 1. The total population. (a) in 1914 is slightly understated, but the error is far more than absorbed by only deducting (b) 50 per cent, for women, which is under the ratio for civilised countries.

2. A deduction of 25 per cent, for men physically incapable may appear to be too small; it is less than is usually allowed, and we- have no actual knowledge of the statistical value of the "surgical repairing" which thfi Germans have carried to excess. It is, however, to my mind well within the mark as to get in one-half of the males and bring them up to 16,000,000. I have gone to extreme limits, namely,15 years and 58. I have for, these figures on the "Enoyolopaedia Britannica," and have taken the former limit in order to bring in well-grown boys now approaching 18, but it is obvious that when those early and late years are taken the proportion of incapables increases. 3.'Again, I must admit that (e) 4,000,000 killed and wounded is a mere estimate. I can only say that I cannot bring myself to believe that it is so low. It ,15 said that German statistics published in September, 1916, bring it within less than half a million of that figure. Then lam informed by medical authorities that the "sick parade" figure of 500,000 is not excessive as a constant deduction from the gross total under arms and awaiting call. 4. I am, however, prepared to give the ultimate reserve the benefit of the doubtful figures, and even to exceed the- assumption that a number equal to 20 per cent, of the total population may be treated as available, and to readjust all the figures on this basis. It must, however, be admitted that railways, munition factories, the navy; the industries, and agriculture of the country, and many miscellaneous services cannot be wholly run by moans of physically incapable men. Making all allowances for errors in the above table, it would probably be more than sufficient to revise this, and say: _ Ultimate reserve 4,000,000 This concides with some rather confused figures lately published in Austria, which treat the ultimate reserve for all purposes of that' country as 3,000,000, corresponding roughly with 4,000,000 for Germany.

5. The question then arises how far the 4,000,000' able-bodied men thus assumed to exist aro capable of being drafted into tho active army, for which propose most of them must first be trained.

A recent' official estimate as to men available in Ireland asserts that 240,000 able-bodied men, equal to l-16th of the total population, are required for the miscellaneous non-military services referred to in the foregoing paragraph. If that be correct, and the same ratio be observed for Germany, the 4,000,000 must be about absorbed, in which, case a collapse would be approachjng. This figure cannot, however, be implicitly relied on, as the Germans have shown extraordinary ability in utilising the physically incapable, such as old men, women, and boys, to replace able-bodied men. Tho figure, however, begins to point a time when shortage .will be acutcly felt. j 6.. About a year Mr. H. Belloc, in "Land and Wator," worked out calculations which tended to stow that in March, 1916, Germany would begin seriously to feel a shortage of reserves. It is almost certain that since June that shortago has been felt. The German military authorities have exhibited surpassing capacity for concealing this want by tho manner iii which they ha.ro moved troops from front,to front, but tho new tactics of the Allies, initiated in July, of • continuous attack on all fronts, largely frustrates this. The extended front covering Austria, Rumania, and Bulgaria has accentuated the demand for first-class German troops. » 7. There remains a factor which I confess myself quite unable to estimate,namely, tue extent to which the Germans, by utilising prisoners and deporting men, women, and even young girln from Belgium to their own agricultural districts, aro able to replace and liberate for service at the front able-bodied men. All wo know is that the process is going on. Tho fact that it is going on proves that reserves ar9 becoming seriously reduced.

8. I do not ask anyone to, rely on these figures, hit I suggest that unless they can he seriously impeached there is consolation to be derived from theni, and I shall be glad t-o have them criticised.